New steps rain on speculators' parade

I am afraid that $ SG may probably weaken against $ US at the end of the year and to fight inflation with weaker $S, MAS will raise interest rate so for those property investors who still buy after 14/Jan/2011 they will face very grim future.
If they sell in the first 03 years they will have to pay very high stamp fee but if holding on, the interest rate will hit them hard.

For those who has been on the sideline in the last few years, save money and be prepared, in 4-7 year time, you may have another shot and don't miss it. We need to plan now and the very first thing is to identify those properties with good residual land value

(16-01-2011, 11:52 PM)arthur Wrote:

(16-01-2011, 11:28 PM)Contrarian Wrote: This NEVER happened in the 08 and 09 downturn. So every down cycle is different.

Relac Contrarian-san.
I am sure many of us observe this scenario in Singapore as well.
As I mentioned that these cycles only work in normal times. We aren't.

Hi Con san & Arthur san,
I think those on the ground full-time real estate guys, they are the 1 can feel the market sentiment more accurately, cos they have a wider network.

The only areas that will always appreciate their value are the prime locations, prices always go much higher after each boom/bust cycle.

Agreed, which cycle is different...this time round is too much money flooding the market...the garment is installing 'check valve' in our economy, i.e. prevent outflow of money, when foreign investors pull-out... severe liquidity will cause hyper-inflation bad for the economy...so balancing both is the best.

Anyway, attached below is an useful chart on pty price index from 1960 to 2010. U may see the cycle trend yrself.

Koh-san

Thanks so much for your attachment. Great reference I would say.
I am worried bcos some factors that are present currently weren't even in existent during the 1997 era.

One of the main factor is of cos: the inflow of foreign capital. I believe the current inflow is more massive than then. (Correct me if I am wrong onthis.)
And of cos, the unknown capability of present government whether it could actually tame such a massive capital inflow within the property market.

If you have noticed in past few years, we have been listening to all the medias and agents' propostions on why local properties will not dropped dramatically.
Ever wonder why we never heard of any reports of the dangers such properties liquidity thus far have on our economy?

Its worrisome when the radio only plays "Listen only to the good stuffs".
I personally would prefer to hear a balanced opinion and feel safer as sanity is still prevalent.

Applies both to properties as well as equities market. Higher earnings expected in coming months! P/E ratio is still uber cheap!! Buy now or you will regret!
I am sure the experienced investors hear this one too many...

All in all, I am not so concerned with people with deep pockets but those commoners who practise one-up over their peers by upgrading to condos instead of being comfy in their 5 rm HDB. They are the ones who have stretched their pockets to the max and they will not be able to survive a retrenchment should one comes suddenly again.

Cheers.

PS: Last Saturday I received FOUR offers from agents on the "lower prices" of the prestigious(?) Spittagwood 18 condo. Never gotten such drastic pushy sales tactic before. Did I got the name wrong? Hahah.

(17-01-2011, 10:08 PM)arthur Wrote: Koh-san
PS: Last Saturday I received FOUR offers from agents on the "lower prices" of the prestigious(?) Spittagwood 18 condo. Never gotten such drastic pushy sales tactic before. Did I got the name wrong? Hahah.

Arthur san,

Yr ang moh very deep leh, you write well and with good command in English...never edit yr posts...unlike me...Chinese helicopter, whole body full of spelling mistake..must send me to British council, soon.

That Spottiswoode Park 18 located at Tanjong Pagar is a 'to be' prime location, in the next few year..not a bad investment when there an opportunity...how much $psf huh?

Anyway, watch out for 2012..it could be a good time to pick up some 'under-value ' property if my judgment is not wrong, basing on the current scenario of 4th cooling measure...any 5th measure, this yr? hehe..i ask heaven.

Cheers...good night.

Tanjong Pagar? You sure about that? Cos they told me from $700k onwards. Maybe they are trying to push me a studio apartment. They said it's nest to Outram MRT or something.

Siao. I don't need to cater for the rest of my family meh? I rather go buy a Massionnette at some good central location with more living spaces for everyone lor.
Prestige is good to have, but having a good family life is even more important.

Today took a cab and the driver was even advising me on the merits of buying properties only on what you can afford. Very sound advice but younger generations don't wanna listen to this anymore. One of those down to earth, earning honest living cabbie. Had a great chat.

My ang mo not that good. My hokkien better. LOL.

Cheers, nightz.

(15-01-2011, 09:50 PM)koh_52 Wrote: My take, within 9 mths the market will balance back to its equilibrium and volume start to pick up again……..thereafter the next killer will be interest rate hike and this could be the last cooling measure…dun miss the opportunity to buy a boat and 10 yrs later its grow to a ship…hehe.

Agreed. It's just a number game. China and indo has large enough of wealthy folks who are interested in buying for e long term. Even some ang mohs or FTs assigned to work in Singapore might be interested getting a piece of e pie with some improvement in e market prices. So demand is not lacking.

Still waiting patiently for 2nd round of Great Singapore Sale after January effect is over. Hehe.

I, for one, am not sure if the money will continue to pour into Singapore for the purchase of real estate. Foreigners could easily withdraw the money and once this happens, it will lead to a resounding crash. Though I'd say the chances of the money flowing OUT are not great, but the inflow may start to slow to a trickle soon if all asset classes start appreciating (so that they cease being viewed as attractive).

I think real estate has the potential to do well in the short-term despite the cooling measures. Longer-term wise, it's hard to tell. I am still figuring out if Singaporeans are as rich as they seem; or are they binging on leverage?

(17-01-2011, 10:08 PM)arthur Wrote: PS: Last Saturday I received FOUR offers from agents on the "lower prices" of the prestigious(?) Spittagwood 18 condo. Never gotten such drastic pushy sales tactic before. Did I got the name wrong? Hahah.

How prestigious can these shoebox units be?

> I think those on the ground full-time real estate guys, they are the 1 can feel the market
> sentiment more accurately, cos they have a wider network.

These people tend to be too close to the market.

The only areas that will always appreciate their value are the prime locations, prices always go much higher after each boom/bust cycle.

> I agree with u. However, with so many new units TOP in D9-11 and D1, D2, I am not sure if I will pick a prime area condo. THe number of expats rentals I am not sure will draw enough tenants. If I am rich, I will pick one like in 2009. Now, no more for the time being.

Whatever the case, it is always better to go against the flow... just like my pseudonym.

One of my friend who owns one small unit in the Sail@Marina
(opposite ORQ ), he paid it for 2 millions and he is renting it for S$5200.00 p.m. Fully furnished. He has to pay maintenance/property tax/income tax. He told me net rental is around 2.5%.