SingTel

SingTel did a share-buy-back on 20th May 2013, slightly over 1 mil shares with price from $4.04-$4.08

It seems that it's an annual event which had been done for last 5 years?

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

I noted the following statement, sounds as music to me...

"The brokerage noted that with the exception of M1, which expects to see moderate earnings growth this year, both SingTel and StarHub were muted in their outlook."

SingTel dips on broker downgrade

Singapore shares edged down, with Singapore Telecommunications declining 2% after OCBC cut its rating on the sector.

“In the search for yield, telco stocks have done very well, rising some 14% to 26% year to date, versus the STI’s 9% climb,” OCBC said in a report.

“However, given the still-muted outlook, we believe that the share prices have run up too much, too quickly, and this has driven yields down to below 5%.”

It downgraded the sector to “neutral” from “overweight”.

http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-dail...grade.html

(20-05-2013, 08:04 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(20-05-2013, 07:37 PM)Drizzt Wrote: capex is necessary evil and that eats into free cash flow. they been losing market share so to me thats a bad thing. will they be able to gain traction from monetizing with new products? Singtel have not shown the capability to do that.

Capex is a necessary expense of telco. If Optus did not spend the capex on 4G, but other tech, than it will be a much bigger concern IMO

4G isn't an expensive technology relatively. I don't expect a large increase from the regular capex due to the deployment.

the expensive part is not the technology. it is the need for more spectrum. that is the expensive part

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(21-05-2013, 03:31 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I noted the following statement, sounds as music to me...

"The brokerage noted that with the exception of M1, which expects to see moderate earnings growth this year, both SingTel and StarHub were muted in their outlook."

SingTel dips on broker downgrade

Singapore shares edged down, with Singapore Telecommunications declining 2% after OCBC cut its rating on the sector.

“In the search for yield, telco stocks have done very well, rising some 14% to 26% year to date, versus the STI’s 9% climb,” OCBC said in a report.

“However, given the still-muted outlook, we believe that the share prices have run up too much, too quickly, and this has driven yields down to below 5%.”

It downgraded the sector to “neutral” from “overweight”.

http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-dail...grade.html

you got to relook your growth model cityfarmer. what is your DCF growth rate for singtel?

(21-05-2013, 06:43 PM)Drizzt Wrote: the expensive part is not the technology. it is the need for more spectrum. that is the expensive part

Yes, agree, spectrum is the most expensive part of the 4G, in fact for all mobile tech deployments. When i refer to technology, i mean spectrum cost included.

(21-05-2013, 06:43 PM)Drizzt Wrote:

(21-05-2013, 03:31 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I noted the following statement, sounds as music to me...

"The brokerage noted that with the exception of M1, which expects to see moderate earnings growth this year, both SingTel and StarHub were muted in their outlook."

you got to relook your growth model cityfarmer. what is your DCF growth rate for singtel?

Well, i meant M1's growth, rather on SingTel's growth, in case you mis-understood the previous posting.

For SingTel, it is not a growth story, but an asset story for me.

(vested both on SingTel and M1)

The report is the only SingTel's report covers Netlink Trust IIRC... Our valuation methods are difference, but TP is pretty close...

Nomura report on SingTel, TP $4.50, rating buy

Action: Maintain Buy with revised SGD4.50 price target
Despite the 23% YTD rally, we maintain Buy with a revised SGD4.50 price
target, driven by higher core EBITDA and associate valuations. This implies a
further 19-20% total return potential, including 6-7% in dividends over the next
12 months. The recent share price run is a function of an improvement in
operational trends, and macro/ dividend appeal. Operationally, we expect
SingTel's underlying EPS to grow after 3 years of declines – the majority of
which was driven by Bharti in India. One can invest in Bharti directly too, but
Bharti’s valuation appears stretched at +20x P/E (with no dividends) and
regulatory uncertainty prevails. SingTel's other businesses are also trending
well, such as double-digit earnings trends at Telkomsel or improving cost
controls at Optus. We only assume 2-3% pa EBITDA growth each for its
wholly owned businesses for the next few years. On the macro front, a
number of Asian stocks are trading at all-time highs, especially the ones with
solid FCF, dividend yields and liquidity. SingTel fares well on these metrics –
it is still at a 11% discount to regional peers.

Various cash events in next 1-2 years…but decent cash buffer
In recent years, SingTel's earnings have been far more volatile than its
cashflows. This trend will likely continue. At this juncture though, there are
a few 'cash events' to watch for – such as potential sale of Optus satellites
or NetLink Trust, or an investment in Myanmar, or spectrum payments.
Considering these, along with its balance sheet capacity – we still see up
to S10c in surplus capacity, which could be considered for specials in
FY14F. This is after building in SGD1.6bn in digital capex in FY14-16F.

$4.50? Of course anything can happen if the Market stays irrational (on the upside) longer than you can. i sincerely hope so.
Vested 5 lots.

(21-05-2013, 07:56 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(21-05-2013, 06:43 PM)Drizzt Wrote: the expensive part is not the technology. it is the need for more spectrum. that is the expensive part

Yes, agree, spectrum is the most expensive part of the 4G, in fact for all mobile tech deployments. When i refer to technology, i mean spectrum cost included.

(21-05-2013, 06:43 PM)Drizzt Wrote:

(21-05-2013, 03:31 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I noted the following statement, sounds as music to me...

"The brokerage noted that with the exception of M1, which expects to see moderate earnings growth this year, both SingTel and StarHub were muted in their outlook."

you got to relook your growth model cityfarmer. what is your DCF growth rate for singtel?

Well, i meant M1's growth, rather on SingTel's growth, in case you mis-understood the previous posting.

For SingTel, it is not a growth story, but an asset story for me.

(vested both on SingTel and M1)

hi cityfarmer, why would you say it is an asset story? i think i am just skeptical about this digital segment. although i am always wrong about potential. Singtel have till now show that their reinvestment's of cash flow have been far lower compare to sticking to singapore.

so this was a step that they have to take else they will be consider a dump pipe. the dynamics are rather different. They are now not only competiting with m1 or starhub, but sph, singpost, google and amazon possibly. can't say i am an expert but can only based on their past capital allocating skills.

i am not optimistic.

(24-05-2013, 12:34 PM)Drizzt Wrote:

(21-05-2013, 07:56 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(21-05-2013, 06:43 PM)Drizzt Wrote: the expensive part is not the technology. it is the need for more spectrum. that is the expensive part

Yes, agree, spectrum is the most expensive part of the 4G, in fact for all mobile tech deployments. When i refer to technology, i mean spectrum cost included.

(21-05-2013, 06:43 PM)Drizzt Wrote:

(21-05-2013, 03:31 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: I noted the following statement, sounds as music to me...

"The brokerage noted that with the exception of M1, which expects to see moderate earnings growth this year, both SingTel and StarHub were muted in their outlook."

you got to relook your growth model cityfarmer. what is your DCF growth rate for singtel?

Well, i meant M1's growth, rather on SingTel's growth, in case you mis-understood the previous posting.

For SingTel, it is not a growth story, but an asset story for me.

(vested both on SingTel and M1)

hi cityfarmer, why would you say it is an asset story? i think i am just skeptical about this digital segment. although i am always wrong about potential. Singtel have till now show that their reinvestment's of cash flow have been far lower compare to sticking to singapore.

so this was a step that they have to take else they will be consider a dump pipe. the dynamics are rather different. They are now not only competiting with m1 or starhub, but sph, singpost, google and amazon possibly. can't say i am an expert but can only based on their past capital allocating skills.

i am not optimistic.

It may sound ridiculous as shareholder. I am not betting on the success of SingTel, but betting on a likelihood of special dividend in the next 1-2 years due to divestment of asset(s).

Well, i have to admit SingTel's success is still a bonus, and i am more than happy to see it happens.

Browsed thru Toogle promotion in Today of Friday 24 May 2013, isn't it a growing OTT service provider? Will it become a threat to Starhub and SingTel pay-TV business, or it already has?

The offered packages cost approx $7 per month, with limited channels offered, mainly movie. I saw KBS World in the list.

IMO, probably not a threat now, but may be in the near future...hmm...

Toggle can be a threat by taking the same route as MioTV did - sports content.

Of cos I'm not suggesting that they dump millions and try to get exclusive deals but if they are able to structure something along the line of a PPV instead of a 'buffet', it may just take off.

Those of us who subscribed to the sports channels probably do it because we followed 1 or 2 major sports. We dun care for the other offerings. If Starhub or Singtel give us a choice, most of us would probably prefer ala carte instead of buffet.

eg. I am F1 fan paying $20 a month to subscribe to sports channels. I dun mind paying $5-$10 per race weekend just for the F1 telecast. Or say I'm only interested in watching all the Arsenal games and dun mind paying $2 per telecast.

If Toggle can find some way to bring the above to the consumers, even if its just an online platform, I think it will take off. But I'm under no illusion that its going to be easy. Maybe Singtel and Starhub has done the numbers crunching and find it not viable.