New private home sales down by half

Population in 2012 ~5.31mil. Target 2030 ~6.9mil. That means every year there has to be ~88k new foreigners coming in. EVERY YEAR! Is spore going to build 60k homes every year?

Seems to be 50k new homes per year on average from 2013 to 2016 inclusive, instead of 60k

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=...050&type=1

6.9 Million is the upper band set by the govt. And seriously I do not for see the govt hitting the 6.9M population figure at that year for it will be a political minus for the ruling party. Secondly, as mentioned in one of my previous post, I do not foresee the demand and supply factor as one of the key reason which will influence price spikes or collapse. It will be just an intermediating factor. The global cheap credit will be the key element. Because right now, no matter how many private properties we build and ECs becoming private properties after the few years of occupation, Foreigners will keep coming in and purchase them for they view our country as a safe haven.

The only way for these foreigners to pull out of investing in property is to engineer instability or economic recession here. We are a victim of our success of being a stable and prosperous nation! I mentioned somewhere that our country saw an inflow of $3Billion into our property sector recently ( taxes IRAS collected from them) And for our locals to stop speculating in the private property, interest rates have to rise to make it unbearable for them to invest in a second property ( in fact a second property is like a margin investment where the interest is only 1.5% as compared to CFD providers ranging from 2% to 5.25%).

Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.

Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.

KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.

Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.

If majority of Singaporeans are vested in multiple properties, people will still vote for PAP in 2016. It is like in the 90s when PAP use estate upgrading for votes..

Nevertheless the world has become more flat and we can all choose to live where we like best, the catch is need to have some spare cash.. and not all the cash into Singapore properties..

(17-05-2013, 10:37 AM)mulyc Wrote: Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.

Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.

KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.

Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.

(17-05-2013, 10:45 AM)shareinvestor1 Wrote: If majority of Singaporeans are vested in multiple properties, people will still vote for PAP in 2016. It is like in the 90s when PAP use estate upgrading for votes..

Nevertheless the world has become more flat and we can all choose to live where we like best, the catch is need to have some spare cash.. and not all the cash into Singapore properties..

(17-05-2013, 10:37 AM)mulyc Wrote: Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.

Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.

KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.

Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.

That's other problem. Those holding multiple properties who see the rental market collapse will not be able to use their rents to cover instalments and therefore choose to sell, adding to the downward cycle. Plus interest rates are starting to turn upwards.

I'm not hoping for a collapse in SG property but these are the things I see and note in my daily work. It is enough to hold back many potential purchases already.

we might see something worse that that during the 1980s to early 1990s property doldrum..

agreed that we need to continue to "import" a lot of "FTs", etc, and still have a lot of hot money flowing around..

but the change might be quite abrupt. We just need some "herd mentality" effect to see the scramble out of property market...

(17-05-2013, 10:51 AM)mulyc Wrote:

(17-05-2013, 10:45 AM)shareinvestor1 Wrote: If majority of Singaporeans are vested in multiple properties, people will still vote for PAP in 2016. It is like in the 90s when PAP use estate upgrading for votes..

Nevertheless the world has become more flat and we can all choose to live where we like best, the catch is need to have some spare cash.. and not all the cash into Singapore properties..

(17-05-2013, 10:37 AM)mulyc Wrote: Well you have to consider that new foreigners come in families, so you can divide your figures by at least 2, and alot of this is replacement population, where our current birthrate is not replacing fast enough. So yes, there will still be housing demand, but it will not be as strong anymore.

Add to that a slowdown in China coupled with a pick up in SEA emerging markets property demand would likely mean less demand for investment-grade housing in SG.

KBW has been quite determined to stabilize property prices since he took on his MND portfolio. So the upside is limited already.

Just wait for the release of all the new housing units in 2013/14/15 to see the effects. We might see an oversupply soon unless the gahmen relaxes the immigration policy. But then that would only be bad for their bid to continue power in 2016.

That's other problem. Those holding multiple properties who see the rental market collapse will not be able to use their rents to cover instalments and therefore choose to sell, adding to the downward cycle. Plus interest rates are starting to turn upwards.

I'm not hoping for a collapse in SG property but these are the things I see and note in my daily work. It is enough to hold back many potential purchases already.

Yah if you watched the property crash in the late 80s, it is not funny at all. Even property cycle has got similar Wave theory. After the first wave of selling, people jump back in to buy thinking its cheap, then another wave spikes downwards and everyone is caught with their pants down and the buyers in the market suddenly disappear...

honestly speaking, i dont think spore might be a soverign country after 50 years...so in terms of stocks and properties, better diversify out of spore as well...(just my personal thoughts)

Yes. by then those stucked will plead for PAP to import more people...

(17-05-2013, 11:06 AM)mulyc Wrote: Yah if you watched the property crash in the late 80s, it is not funny at all. Even property cycle has got similar Wave theory. After the first wave of selling, people jump back in to buy thinking its cheap, then another wave spikes downwards and everyone is caught with their pants down and the buyers in the market suddenly disappear...