Singapore Post

Unlikely...SingPost do not have major CAPEX like SMRT.

DBS issued a report today and gave a target price of $1.56. I am not convinced. The downward trend of the mail industry cannot be reversed. I think this is a classic example of a very well run company in a very bad industry.

I have let go all my holding today with more than 30% profit. Actually I am having a sense of loss from selling this company after having it for a long time. The postman never failed to deliver its quarterly dividends. I am going to miss it and hope to find another substitute soon. Thank you postman!

i think like what shanrui said previously, there is hope for singapore post. and the direction that this wolfgang is taking them may work. a lot will depend on the execution.

they would need to use the mail cash flow to build a complementary logistic business. but you ahve to live with a transformation from 70% margin business to a 5% business. if they can build up a regional logistic arm then they may have hope.

but if you look at their products and majority of the singaporeans are not using it, then you got to question if they are doing it right. vpost have always NOT been a consideration for my friends.

theywill need a lot of new business to make up for a fat high margin mail buisiness

(07-05-2013, 03:29 PM)Drizzt Wrote: i think like what shanrui said previously, there is hope for singapore post. and the direction that this wolfgang is taking them may work. a lot will depend on the execution.

they would need to use the mail cash flow to build a complementary logistic business. but you ahve to live with a transformation from 70% margin business to a 5% business. if they can build up a regional logistic arm then they may have hope.

but if you look at their products and majority of the singaporeans are not using it, then you got to question if they are doing it right. vpost have always NOT been a consideration for my friends.

theywill need a lot of new business to make up for a fat high margin mail buisiness

Yes, I believe there is hope for Singpost. This Dr W is a lot more aggressive as compared to the last few CEOs, but we have to be patience with the company while it is diversifying its businesses. However, Mr. Market seems to suggest that all the M&A is a sure success. Singpost was trading at $1.15 at 31 Dec 2012, and now it is trading at a high of $1.32. That is a 14.7% increased over less than 5 months. Things might get worse before it gets better, so I don’t share the optimism at this juncture. At today’s price, PE is close to 20X, yield less than 5%. Looks like Mr. Market is seeing Singpost as a growth stock rather than a stable and defensive stock. Just my 2c simple view.

ben, agree! this wolfgang is actually a consultant background from mckinsey if i am not wrong, who should have studied extensively how postal service diversify and stay relevant.

hence there is hope but there is also despair because alot will determine by the execution. not an easy feat changing the culture as well.

stil you ask yourself do you want to own a logistic business.

If you really want a logistic play - simply buy the best CWT and forget the rest. Why bother to pin hopes on a slowly decaying business that is struggling to survive.

Unlike telcos that are reporting slow accounting earnings growth and strong cashflows, Singpost is reporting the contrary.

Caveat Emptor

(07-05-2013, 05:13 PM)Drizzt Wrote: ben, agree! this wolfgang is actually a consultant background from mckinsey if i am not wrong, who should have studied extensively how postal service diversify and stay relevant.

hence there is hope but there is also despair because alot will determine by the execution. not an easy feat changing the culture as well.

stil you ask yourself do you want to own a logistic business.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Absolutely, its TINA times. One just got to understand who is behind the buying now - its real money, no the small men on the streets...

Hence, the need to hunt for stocks with the margin of safety in the event of an unexpected turn - at least can tide over wrong term...

GG

(14-05-2013, 05:15 PM)violinist Wrote: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

(14-05-2013, 05:15 PM)violinist Wrote: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Well, if the market now can only offer 4% dividend, and REITS are not an option, then the fund managers who have to follow their funds objective, will have no choice but to buy into banks, telcos, singpost to give them the yield they are looking for.

(14-05-2013, 07:00 PM)NTL Wrote:

(14-05-2013, 05:15 PM)violinist Wrote: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Well, if the market now can only offer 4% dividend, and REITS are not an option, then the fund managers who have to follow their funds objective, will have no choice but to buy into banks, telcos, singpost to give them the yield they are looking for.

Basically TINA:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_Is_No_Alternative

There is no alternative (shortened as TINA) was a slogan which Margaret Thatcher, the conservative British Prime Minister used often. In economics, politics, and political economy, it has come to mean that "there is no alternative" to economic liberalism, that free markets, free trade, and capitalist globalization are the best or only way for modern societies to develop.