Fraser & Neave (F & N)

http://www.fraserandneave.com/FN_investor_r.asp

Still 100+, ended at 899 today following a late push towards the close. Buyer is very determined and its not difficult really given the limited free float in F&N currently. As usual its a post afternoon tea action.

Hopefully, there will be some financial re-engineering coming through with the results release.

Vested
GG

(08-05-2013, 05:31 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: http://www.fraserandneave.com/FN_investor_r.asp

Still 100+, ended at 899 today following a late push towards the close. Buyer is very determined and its not difficult really given the limited free float in F&N currently. As usual its a post afternoon tea action.

Hopefully, there will be some financial re-engineering coming through with the results release.

Vested
GG

Thanks GG. I observed too the 'buyer' is very keen after having afternoon tea, just like other days.

May I know what 'financial re-engineering' you may speculate? Placement to create free float more than 10%?
Good for existing minority?

With slightly more than 2 weeks, F&N share price approaching $9 now, which is upper side of my conservative valuation. I believe there are more upside, pending for positive corporate actions or "financial re-engineering" GG has highlighted.

For those got it around $8, the 2 weeks absolute return is more than 12%. Not too bad after learning from guru Joel Greenblatt. His record in Gotham Capital from 1985 to 1995 is 50% annualized... hmm...too high a target for a average follower of him...

We have to thank SorChais for providing us the opportunity to co-own a proven business with new Towkays.

It remains "legally approved cornered" stock until 18 Jul 13.

Towkays are highly geared after the successful takeover while the cash pile continued to sit with F&N following the sale of APB. So the logic will be to upstream the cash to the Towkays to relieve their burden.

However, Old Friends may have New Ideas with New Towkays - these blokes are proven as well, hence as minorities we must expect the unexpected.

Results released tomorrow will include a S$50m break fee paid to OUE and hopefully there will be positive surprises. Otherwise, there will certainly a new game plan to entice new SorChais on board in order to comply with SGX free float requirements.

Vested
GG

Soft drink party started too early today and ran out of gas at mkt close 896.

Hopefully, new towkay will shed some light on financial engineering - he may not return all the previously promised cash from the sale of APB in one go.

More likely he may declare some of the promised cash as part of the carrot being dangled for the intended placement to comply with free float requirements and thereafter return more as an incentive to reward the new group of strategic investors.

Anyway, only one trading day away so akan datang.

Vested
GG

(09-05-2013, 09:39 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Soft drink party started too early today and ran out of gas at mkt close 896.

Hopefully, new towkay will shed some light on financial engineering - he may not return all the previously promised cash from the sale of APB in one go.

More likely he may declare some of the promised cash as part of the carrot being dangled for the intended placement to comply with free float requirements and thereafter return more as an incentive to reward the new group of strategic investors.

Anyway, only one trading day away so akan datang.

Vested
GG

IMO, the best timing to announce cash distribution is during interim reporting.

GG seems very excited on the coming events... Stay cool buddy, more will come, and patience will pay off.

(09-05-2013, 10:22 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(09-05-2013, 09:39 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Soft drink party started too early today and ran out of gas at mkt close 896.

Hopefully, new towkay will shed some light on financial engineering - he may not return all the previously promised cash from the sale of APB in one go.

More likely he may declare some of the promised cash as part of the carrot being dangled for the intended placement to comply with free float requirements and thereafter return more as an incentive to reward the new group of strategic investors.

Anyway, only one trading day away so akan datang.

Vested
GG

IMO, the best timing to announce cash distribution is during interim reporting.

GG seems very excited on the coming events... Stay cool buddy, more will come, and patience will pay off.

Sure excited lah - this is a uniquely approved cornered stock. In my coming to 30 years of investment experience, I have never come across such a situation.

I have seen the former People's Park king Ho Kok Cheong cornering Leong Huat while in capacity as a SES executive. I have seen how KFC (now Inno Pac) being fried sky high post its listing in the 80s, seen how L&M (renamed Interra Resources) went triple at IPO in the 80s. Approved cornered stock - first time ever.

Moreover the events since the relisting has been so colourful and the reovery has been equally dramatic. How not to be excited.

Anyway, its only money, back to square one just to watch a live drama on SGX is well worth the money.

GG

GG & CityFarmer,

I take this episode as an excellent learning experience.

However, I fail to understand the potential positive excitement.

For all placement that I came across in Spore, the placement price is discount (not premium) to recent trading prices. Thus, the share price will likely to come down after the placement announcement.

Even there is a capital reduction / special cash dividend, the price will adjust accordingly by same amount upon ex-Dividend.

Am I missing something?

(10-05-2013, 12:44 AM)PkNanas Wrote: GG & CityFarmer,

I take this episode as an excellent learning experience.

However, I fail to understand the potential positive excitement.

For all placement that I came across in Spore, the placement price is discount (not premium) to recent trading prices. Thus, the share price will likely to come down after the placement announcement.

Even there is a capital reduction / special cash dividend, the price will adjust accordingly by same amount upon ex-Dividend.

Am I missing something?

The key is not on the placement itself, but

- the placement will enable F&N continue to be listed.
- the "partner" that be allocated the placement is also worth a deeper look.
- the placement is not the ONLY "financial re-engineering(s)" anticipated.


(vested)

(10-05-2013, 10:35 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(10-05-2013, 12:44 AM)PkNanas Wrote: GG & CityFarmer,

I take this episode as an excellent learning experience.

However, I fail to understand the potential positive excitement.

For all placement that I came across in Spore, the placement price is discount (not premium) to recent trading prices. Thus, the share price will likely to come down after the placement announcement.

Even there is a capital reduction / special cash dividend, the price will adjust accordingly by same amount upon ex-Dividend.

Am I missing something?

The key is not on the placement itself, but

- the placement will enable F&N continue to be listed.
- the "partner" that be allocated the placement is also worth a deeper look.
- the placement is not the ONLY "financial re-engineering(s)" anticipated.


(vested)

The only people who're likely to get excited are likely the ones who'd gotten vested at closer to $8 when the Index Funds had to sell during that 3 days of the Great F&N sale. There was also a couple of days of Post-Event sale where it was closer to $8 than $9.

IMO, at current prices, the risk-reward is not that great and yes, I doubt anyone will feel any excitement about the coming mid-year results announcement if they get vested now. In fact, the risk of losing money is high if F&N don't meet market's anticipation of a high Special Dividend payout....

For the rest of us who'd gotten vested earlier, we have what we think is a sufficient margin of safety. Even if F&N should disappoint us this evening, some of us will likely continue to stay vested and watch this exciting saga as it unfolds...

We're not rich tycoons, so, what we think is the most logical thing to do may not materialise. Perhaps the banks are more than happy to continue with their current loan arrangements (since money is aplenty as it's being printed everywhere)? Perhaps our tycoon has plans to sell his unlisted assets to F&N? That'll require an EGM and probability of success may not be high but, the payback to him may be worth the effort? Or perhaps, F&N will issue new shares to buy assets from his business partners? That'll solve the free float problem... So many perhaps... Going to keep us occupied for a while, this show...