Sing Holdings

(14-01-2011, 10:13 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: How much do u expect property price to fall? 100%?

after The Laurels, their NTA should be around 60-70 cents which is $240-$280m.

Personally I doubt property price to fall. If really fall significantly, govt will fall first.....^^

Property price will fall significantly when a global financial crisis hits(which I believe coming) and govt will said this is global financial crisis, not our fault, everyone around the world got hit....

not the price problem, the liquidity problem.

even the price is high, you can't sell any unit, what's the point?

with more measure coming, can Sing Holdings still launch its Robin Drive? or is the launch going to be successful?

location wise, Robin Drive not far from Bellerive, but at least 50% more expensive in land cost

(14-01-2011, 01:30 PM)freedom Wrote: with more measure coming, can Sing Holdings still launch its Robin Drive? or is the launch going to be successful?

location wise, Robin Drive not far from Bellerive, but at least 50% more expensive in land cost

Their timing is super unlucky. It seems Sing Holdings was pinning on Robin Drive to be their next earnings driver.

but developers have the luxury of time ( since their loan from banks is not affected) right? and 1300 per sq ft that they paid, doesn't seem too expensive looking forward

The cooling measures mean 2 things.

1. Property market is doing well. You cant cool it when it not doing well.
2. It filters out the speculators and the folks with less cash/lower credit quality. This means less defaults in the future.

It worries me slightly. I am not bothered by the new measures but by how far the speculative measures have come.
This is the 4th time the govt intervened. Just like interest rate hikes, at some point, the govt will stop implementing cooling measures and usually that is the signal that things are just going to go flat and downhill from there on.

Onto Sing Holdings, they are very much into the $ with the laurels, so based on that, Sing Holdings is still an attractive buy.
As for their Robin Drive project, my guess is as good as anyone's. They are not likely to lose any money on that and will probably make 'normal' profits on that.
In any case, the robin drive is not going to be very significant if you compare it with the Laurels.
As with all property counters, get out if you have made good money with it or when the tide turns.

(14-01-2011, 11:35 PM)gimbeng Wrote: but developers have the luxury of time ( since their loan from banks is not affected) right? and 1300 per sq ft that they paid, doesn't seem too expensive looking forward

not affeted?

if land valuation drops, and construction never starts, banks will start to worry and ask for repayment.

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(15-01-2011, 05:30 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: yes land cost around $1350. one of the broking housing(i think uob kayhian.....can't remember) used Cyan to compare with Robin Drive. So will Sing Holdings lose money? Your guess as good as mine.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/project/cyan-1590

will it last with potential more cooling measures coming?

even if the price stays, can the transaction be that many?

buyers will wait for more measures to come and price to drop. for upgrades/new home buyers, I think buyers have the luxury to wait for a big longer and save a few bucks.

speculators will flee.

(17-01-2011, 12:39 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Property Project : The Laurels
Update: Sing Holding Dec 10
Cumulative Units Sold to-date: 203
Median Price ($psf) in the Month: $3,161
Units sold in Dec: 4
Cumulative Units Launched but Unsold: 26

Wow, they're really fast . Thank for your updates.

So "The Laurels" is 88.65% sold, the next event is their FY2010 result which will be around Feb 23 2010 (Last Year announcement date).

By the way, current price of 34.5 cents looks attractive.

vested.

In the coming quarters, Sing Holdings will be recognising the profits from its Laurels project.

I am thinking whether is it better for the company to distribute the excess cash or to replenish their land bank since they can now purchase at cheaper prices due to the cooling measures.

which will benefit shareholders the most?

I think there is something not right with your calculation.

for point 2, assume total project sales would be 700 mil. land cost 361 mil, construction cost 95 mil. It seems that you left out interest cost (loan took for developmentof Laurels) they need recoganize for development cost, which will form part of cost of goods sold (hope I am not wrong). for markting and showflat, they already expensed most of them, how about sales commission or other sale related charge? how about the administritive and other operating expense they will incur for the construction period of the Laurels? are you assuming that they will not incur any expense for 2011 - 2012 if there is no new development? profit before tax = gross profit?

I think the recoganizable profit from the Laurels should be around 100 mil instead of 150 mil.

my conservative earning estimate for SingHolings is (Laurels only)

2 cents for full year 2010
8 cents for full year 2011
8 cents for full year 2012
5 cents for full year 2013