Dividend vs Speculative Portfolio

Hi all,
Just for discussion sake, which of the 2 portfolio will perform better at the end of this bull run? Or rather which portfolio u wld prefer to hold?

Both portfolio was started when mkt crash with initial amt of $100k
A) Dividend ( last valued @ $150k)
- bank pref shares
- FraserComm, aims, suntec

B) Speculative ( last valued @ $1mil)
- yoma, innopac, ipco, freightlinks, Acma

if u think abt it, a true speculator will set a stop-loss
let us say he set a stop to lose a max 15% of his portfolio
but due to slippages, he liquidate at max 20% loss
he is still left with 800k
and i'm assuming he may use other derivatives, eg simsci to hedge the down-move

a true investor will prob have enough margin-of-safety and not over-worry since the businesses he invested will still carry on biz as usual altho with lower profits
and in any case, a sell down will cause him to use his extra cash to buy more
a severe 2008-like sell down will cause him to be very excited

I think and I said before is very hard to make money as a disciplined value investor. Discipline here means no speculating whatsoever. I think many people are not like that.

Good speculating opportunities do not happen all the time. Now is time of plenty like recent times can make a lot in short amount of time. But some years are like long dry periods market is very cautious and to make that same amount can take several years waiting.

In contrast to recent good times, I remember when Alan Greenspan was Fed Chairman he was hawkish on interest rates every 1-2 years he would hike interest rates by 25-50 basis points every time he did this market would tank for several months after that then just when you thought market had recovered he would do it again and market will tank again it repeated like that for a long long time, there were many many opportunities to pick up good stocks that were cheap from the overselling some deeply and undervalued by up to 70% or more but not many had any interest to buy them. And if you did buy them you end up waiting years for it to be fully valued. Things only really changed when greenspan stepped down.

(06-05-2013, 11:01 PM)funman168 Wrote: Hi all,
Just for discussion sake, which of the 2 portfolio will perform better at the end of this bull run? Or rather which portfolio u wld prefer to hold?

Both portfolio was started when mkt crash with initial amt of $100k
A) Dividend ( last valued @ $150k)
- bank pref shares
- FraserComm, aims, suntec

B) Speculative ( last valued @ $1mil)
- yoma, innopac, ipco, freightlinks, Acma

I can give you an analogy.

Driver A drove at 200 km/h to cover a distance of 200km in one hour.
Driver B drove at 50 km/h to cover the same distance of 200km in 4 hours.

So who got there faster? Driver A.
Who was the safer driver? Driver B.

So who was more successful in reaching his destination? You may argue Driver A; but did you risk-weight his probability of arriving there safely, or at all?

(07-05-2013, 12:02 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(06-05-2013, 11:01 PM)funman168 Wrote: Hi all,
Just for discussion sake, which of the 2 portfolio will perform better at the end of this bull run? Or rather which portfolio u wld prefer to hold?

Both portfolio was started when mkt crash with initial amt of $100k
A) Dividend ( last valued @ $150k)
- bank pref shares
- FraserComm, aims, suntec

B) Speculative ( last valued @ $1mil)
- yoma, innopac, ipco, freightlinks, Acma

I can give you an analogy.

Driver A drove at 200 km/h to cover a distance of 200km in one hour.
Driver B drove at 50 km/h to cover the same distance of 200km in 4 hours.

So who got there faster? Driver A.
Who was the safer driver? Driver B.

So who was more successful in reaching his destination? You may argue Driver A; but did you risk-weight his probability of arriving there safely, or at all?

How about a twist from the analogy?

Driver A is Mr. Michael Schumacher
Driver B is a new driver under probation

As passenger, i will opt to sit with Driver A for the 200 km travel, rather on with driver B.

dividend vs speculative portfolio?

allow me to share my view:

dividend portfolio doesn't mean limited downside. and speculative portfolio would likely have an even more unpredictable downside/upside.

I would prefer a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential, with the former being the emphasis and key.

(07-05-2013, 01:06 PM)paullow Wrote: dividend vs speculative portfolio?

allow me to share my view:

dividend portfolio doesn't mean limited downside. and speculative portfolio would likely have an even more unpredictable downside/upside.

I would prefer a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential, with the former being the emphasis and key.

a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential,
Hi Paullow,
Do you mind to give an example of a stock that meet your criteria.

Thanks paullow,
recently i also started to hv thinking along this direction.
most prob i will trim my speculative portfolio & start a new defensive/offensive portfolio

(07-05-2013, 01:06 PM)paullow Wrote: dividend vs speculative portfolio?

allow me to share my view:

dividend portfolio doesn't mean limited downside. and speculative portfolio would likely have an even more unpredictable downside/upside.

I would prefer a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential, with the former being the emphasis and key.

(07-05-2013, 01:37 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(07-05-2013, 01:06 PM)paullow Wrote: dividend vs speculative portfolio?

allow me to share my view:

dividend portfolio doesn't mean limited downside. and speculative portfolio would likely have an even more unpredictable downside/upside.

I would prefer a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential, with the former being the emphasis and key.

a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential,
Hi Paullow,
Do you mind to give an example of a stock that meet your criteria.
sure. take a look at taisin when it was trading at 17-18c. it met all my criteria. pb 0.6,pe 5, div8%. defensive due to discount to book and dividend. offensive cos of increasing eps and hence decreasingly low pe. such stocks will likely go up fuelled by its fundamentals.
what meets it now, i think i leave it to you to do ur research.

(07-05-2013, 02:38 PM)paullow Wrote:

(07-05-2013, 01:37 PM)Temperament Wrote:

(07-05-2013, 01:06 PM)paullow Wrote: dividend vs speculative portfolio?

allow me to share my view:

dividend portfolio doesn't mean limited downside. and speculative portfolio would likely have an even more unpredictable downside/upside.

I would prefer a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential, with the former being the emphasis and key.

a defensive portfolio with an offensive potential,
Hi Paullow,
Do you mind to give an example of a stock that meet your criteria.
sure. take a look at taisin when it was trading at 17-18c.
what meets it now, i think i leave it to urs truly to do ur research.

it met all my criteria. pb 0.6,pe 5, div8%.
I am sure you have done very, very much more than just basing on the above. Now i see you are a "specialist investor"
O. K. understand.