Genting Singapore

Japan will be the new land of SINs
Jap Av + Casino = best combo ever!!!

don't count on it.

their own home grown companies especially yakuza will also be interested. Yakuza though crime syndicates these days have legalized businesses in japan and close connections to high ranking politicians.

Genting comes to Japan as outsider, anyone in Japan knows Genting? What do you think their chances are?

Q113 Results are out, below my expectations as EPS is lower on both q-o-q & y-o-y basis. Extracts from pg 15,

Resorts World Sentosa (“RWS”) – Singapore Integrated Resort (“Singapore IR”) generated revenue of S$669.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of S$255.4 million in the first quarter of 2013. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, the first quarter’s performance was largely affected by a much weaker win percentage in the premium players’ business despite a significant increase in the premium players’ rolling volume. The non-gaming business continued to perform well, registering a healthy growth of 17%, compared to the first quarter of 2012. The newly opened Marine Life Park remained popular and attracted approximately 7,400 visitors daily while Universal Studios Singapore recorded an average daily visitation of 8,400. The hotel business continued to register high occupancy rate of 92%, with an average room rate of S$404.

Now, I wonder if the Japan thingy was a smokescreen....

Genting burning red red red

SINGAPORE - Shares of Genting Singapore PLC fell as much as 8.1 per cent early on Friday after the casino operator reported a 35 per cent drop in core earnings and flagged a cautious outlook due to muted economic growth in China.

The shares fell as low as S$1.48 after closing 4.9 per cent higher on Thursday before the results were released. Genting Singapore was among the top traded stocks by value and volume on Friday morning.

Genting Singapore's January-March adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell to S$249.7 million (US$202.5 million) from S$381.4 million a year earlier. Five analysts polled by Reuters had on average expected a profit of S$359 million.

OCBC Investment Research pared its 2013 fiscal year revenue estimate by 10 per cent and core earnings forecast by 16 per cent. It downgraded Genting Singapore stock to "sell" from "hold" and cut its target price to S$1.41 from S$1.52, saying the recent run-up in the share price seems "slightly overdone".

I was following Genting very closely for the past couple of weeks and this is my observation,

- Share Price started to weaken as the AGM (25-Apr) and Q1 Results (2-May) approaches. It dropped as much as 10ct over a few days to below $1.40. If you take a look at the volume and numbers of Short Selling, it's really quite scary....

- Even as the AGM was being held on 25-Apr, I noticed a visible strengthening in the share price. I wondered why? Seems like there were optimism on the possibility of Japan allowing casinos to operate in 6-7mths' time. Genting was being touted as a Top 3 candidate (by themselves? + Analysts). Share Price continued to climb over the next few days and hit $1.5x.

- On 1-May, Sands reported a good set of results, including the Singapore operations (Marina Bay Sands). Previously, there'd been a strong co-relation between the 2 IRs in their results, with Sands always reporting before Genting. The market reacted positively on 2-May and Genting share price hits $1.6x.

- After the mkt closed on 2-May, Genting reported a disappointing set of results.... Share Price dropped and closed @ $1.485 on 3-May.

Now, why was I following the events so closely?

I stayed at one of the RWS hotel for a couple of days during the March school hols. The package came with 2 free adult tickets to USS, Marine Life Park & Water Park. All 3 attractions were very crowded with the latter 2 being rather over-crowded (perhaps both are still quite newly opened + school hols). Even at the hotel area, I see many tour groups from overseas at the lobby and during breakfast time. No, I didn't visit the casino...

The first thing I got home was to study their FY12 results. It wasn't too good when compared to FY11. Perhaps the novelty was wearing off. Still, Q4 (Dec) was showing perhaps some signs of stabilising with EPS = 1.09ct vs Q3 = 0.9ct. I was hopeful that their earnings decline may have stopped and bottomed.

I also noted that they're highly profitable, with 80% of Revenue from their Gaming segment. Of these, the bulk of their earnings is coming from the High-Rollers. There's also a huge pile of Cash ($4.38Bil) vs Debts $3Bil, having successfully fed the market frenzy for Preps previously. To further expand their biz, they'd also successfully tendered for a Hotel site at Jurong Town Hall area. The idea was to target budget concious customers where they can stay at a cheaper hotel and I guess being ferried free to Sentosa so that they can visit the casino + attractions...

With the above, I finally took the plunge and got vested at $1.4x. Within a short span of time, it was rather scary to see the share price dropping... I averaged down a couple of times, at larger qty... my tiny stake was becoming quite significant.. I checked and belatedly realised that it was a favourite with the Short Sellers... I rechecked my figures and was planning to buy more when it hit $1.40... Dilly-dally.. got distracted by F&N... following up with some people who attended the AGM (didn't get much feedback except food was lousy - prepacked, no hot coffee/tea + one shareholder harrassing the mgmt..).. well, didn't end up buying more as it quickly went on the uptrend... Over the next couple of days, I quickly divested as the huge short selling was making me think I'd not given myself a good enough Margin of Safety... No, I didn't manage to sell at $1.6x but I was happy to make a tiny but tidy (sounds oxymoron?) profit.


Some good lessons learnt and I'm keeping Genting in my watch list. Perhaps, Q2 will be better? Look at it again in 3mths' time or when prices become more attractive...

Genting I think mostly is for the "gamble" or short term play
seems like a difficult counter to hold for long term as its sooo volatile
any buddy here that has held genting for many years wanna share some views?

(04-05-2013, 10:50 AM)KopiKat Wrote: I was following Genting very closely for the past couple of weeks and this is my observation,

- Share Price started to weaken as the AGM (25-Apr) and Q1 Results (2-May) approaches. It dropped as much as 10ct over a few days to below $1.40. If you take a look at the volume and numbers of Short Selling, it's really quite scary....

- Even as the AGM was being held on 25-Apr, I noticed a visible strengthening in the share price. I wondered why? Seems like there were optimism on the possibility of Japan allowing casinos to operate in 6-7mths' time. Genting was being touted as a Top 3 candidate (by themselves? + Analysts). Share Price continued to climb over the next few days and hit $1.5x.

- On 1-May, Sands reported a good set of results, including the Singapore operations (Marina Bay Sands). Previously, there'd been a strong co-relation between the 2 IRs in their results, with Sands always reporting before Genting. The market reacted positively on 2-May and Genting share price hits $1.6x.

- After the mkt closed on 2-May, Genting reported a disappointing set of results.... Share Price dropped and closed @ $1.485 on 3-May.

Now, why was I following the events so closely?

I stayed at one of the RWS hotel for a couple of days during the March school hols. The package came with 2 free adult tickets to USS, Marine Life Park & Water Park. All 3 attractions were very crowded with the latter 2 being rather over-crowded (perhaps both are still quite newly opened + school hols). Even at the hotel area, I see many tour groups from overseas at the lobby and during breakfast time. No, I didn't visit the casino...

The first thing I got home was to study their FY12 results. It wasn't too good when compared to FY11. Perhaps the novelty was wearing off. Still, Q4 (Dec) was showing perhaps some signs of stabilising with EPS = 1.09ct vs Q3 = 0.9ct. I was hopeful that their earnings decline may have stopped and bottomed.

I also noted that they're highly profitable, with 80% of Revenue from their Gaming segment. Of these, the bulk of their earnings is coming from the High-Rollers. There's also a huge pile of Cash ($4.38Bil) vs Debts $3Bil, having successfully fed the market frenzy for Preps previously. To further expand their biz, they'd also successfully tendered for a Hotel site at Jurong Town Hall area. The idea was to target budget concious customers where they can stay at a cheaper hotel and I guess being ferried free to Sentosa so that they can visit the casino + attractions...

With the above, I finally took the plunge and got vested at $1.4x. Within a short span of time, it was rather scary to see the share price dropping... I averaged down a couple of times, at larger qty... my tiny stake was becoming quite significant.. I checked and belatedly realised that it was a favourite with the Short Sellers... I rechecked my figures and was planning to buy more when it hit $1.40... Dilly-dally.. got distracted by F&N... following up with some people who attended the AGM (didn't get much feedback except food was lousy - prepacked, no hot coffee/tea + one shareholder harrassing the mgmt..).. well, didn't end up buying more as it quickly went on the uptrend... Over the next couple of days, I quickly divested as the huge short selling was making me think I'd not given myself a good enough Margin of Safety... No, I didn't manage to sell at $1.6x but I was happy to make a tiny but tidy (sounds oxymoron?) profit.


Some good lessons learnt and I'm keeping Genting in my watch list. Perhaps, Q2 will be better? Look at it again in 3mths' time or when prices become more attractive...

" got distracted by F&N" - I hope i am not the culprit.

Genting is not in my watch list. Your posting created an interest for me to have a peek...

(04-05-2013, 11:03 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: " got distracted by F&N" - I hope i am not the culprit.

Yes, you were indeed the culprit! But thanks to you, I got vested, even tho' it was literally a last minute decision (during 5pm matching)! The eyes and brain were working on over-drive...

A big THANK YOU!

(04-05-2013, 11:10 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(04-05-2013, 11:03 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: " got distracted by F&N" - I hope i am not the culprit.

Yes, you were indeed the culprit! But thanks to you, I got vested, even tho' it was literally a last minute decision (during 5pm matching)! The eyes and brain were working on over-drive...

A big THANK YOU!

Welcome.

Most credit should goes to your decisiveness, and confidence. Very few have the courage to catch opportunity when arrives.

i hearsay SIN GAPORE is ready for a 3rd casino. So beware! Please go and confirm the rumour if vested.






Not Vested