SMRT

(01-04-2013, 06:11 PM)specuvestor Wrote: yup but Genting is neither quasi-govt with a public mission nor 10% ROA ie it needs to have more assets to generate those profits.

Agree with DFI. Sheng Siong is impressive as well, but they are not in the same sector. Vicom is a great example of being in the same sector but benefits differently. I'm not so sure of Boustead sustainability.

Nonetheless through your quick job do you think 10% ROA is rare in the transport/ Industrial sector, or you think it is equitable for SMRT to get 10% ROA vs the industry?

ROA of 10% is respectable, but not excessive as a duopoly company. This even so after factor in the regulating restrictions in pricing and operation. Furthermore SMRT accounted asset is only operating asset, while non-operating assets are owned by LTA. Both operating and non-operating assets are essential for operation.

OCBC Investment Research report on SMRT. TP S$1.51, rating HOLD. The KopiKat's theory of new CEO still holding true here. One of the common new CEO strategy is impairment, thus creating a good base for his coming performance.

Base on the report, the dividend expectation is half of last year.

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SMRT Corp issued its first ever profit guidance for 4Q13, attributing the expected net loss to higher operating expenses and an impairment of the S$17m in goodwill for its Chinese associate, Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group.

We view the goodwill impairment as a way for SMRT’s new management to turn the page on its past overseas ventures although the timing did take us by surprise. While the Shenzhen ZONA venture failed to yield the desired results, its performance only turned negative over the past two quarters. On the other hand, SMRT was willing to wait out eight quarters of much larger operating losses on its SG bus operations before making a goodwill impairment in 4QFY12.

In our view, the review of SMRT’s business segments by the new management is still ongoing and we could see further impairments with regards to the SG bus business. Its operations continue to suffer from growing operating expenses and a write-down of assets could materialise in the coming quarters if operating losses persist and widen beyond the current losing streak of nine consecutive quarters.

For now, our 4QFY13 estimates call for a loss in excess of $4.3m, and this should reduce FY13’s reported profit to around S$90m. Assuming an unchanged 60% PATMI payout – last seen in FY04/05 – investors can expect a halving of last year’s dividend payout.

Valuation lowered As we roll our valuations forward to include FY15, our fair value declines from S$1.62 to S$1.51 as higher operating expenses and lack of growth opportunities continue to bite. This undesirable combination will likely override any cheer from the upcoming fare increase in mid-CY2013. We reiterate that SMRT is unlikely to see an inflection point anytime soon. Maintain HOLD.

http://remisiers.org/cms_images/research...02-OIR.pdf

(31-03-2013, 10:19 AM)paullow Wrote:

(30-03-2013, 11:14 PM)Temperament Wrote: i don't remember the Market has ever allowed SMRT to reach 7% yield. So it is the same with S'post, i think. MAX yield is 5 to 6 %.(Correct me if i am wrong).

Hi Temperament,

allow me to share my view on SP n SMRT

-both are defensive stocks. to go bust in them is virtually unthinkable.

-SP has a crown jewel in paya lebar. I don't know if SMRT has any crown jewel.

-if u have caught SP in 60-80c range in 2009, you would have gotten perhaps 1/3 of your capital back, just based on dividends, NOT taking into account HUGE capital gains.

-but similarly, if u have caught SMRT at 140c back in 2009, u would probably gained 1/5 of your capital just based on dividends, but little capital gains as of the latest closing price.



That's my observation with SMRT N SP.

You are certainly right.
In fact, i had as usual bought too early too much until my hand went soft. And now maybe sell too early too much also. It's impossible to buy the whole STI's market when the Market crashed. The closest is if we buy STI's ETF.
Anyway, i still can't bring myself to buy "INDEX FUND". Though there are advantages but disadvantages also.

My opinion is SMRT do not have the right people or partner to invest overseas. That explains the impairment.

There is buying-in from SGX for SMRT shares today, total 1.68 million shares

It seems speculators are shorting SMRT few days ago, with un-fulfilled settlements today.

(not vested)

shortist are good! they bring down the stock prices so i can buy cheaper and more!

Any advise on how to value a negative EPS company ?

(04-04-2013, 04:29 PM)corydorus Wrote: Any advise on how to value a negative EPS company ?

Simple...value it by its future discounted cashflow.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...39694.html



SINGAPORE: Authorities in Singapore have announced perks to encourage pre-peak hour travel by MRT.

Commuters who end their journeys at 16 designated MRT stations in the city area before 7.45am on weekdays will enjoy free travel.

Those that exit between 7.45am and 8am will be given a discount of up to 50 cents.

This one year trial by the Land Transport Authority will begin on June 24 and will be funded by the government.

The objective of the trial is to encourage commuters to travel early and spread out peak hour crowds.

-TODAY

Good for consumers bad for shareholders


free morning mrt will also cannibalize bus and cab business

not vested

Ha! Ha! 1st time in Singapore Papies's history? Something really free? Yes, if you are a natural early riser? What are the next changes as 2015/2016 approaches? Your guess is as good as mine.