Jeremy Siegel: 'This Rally Has Legs'

In summary: Yr 2013 DOW 16000, Yr 2014 DOW 18000

Valuation will move to 18-20X PE

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000160013

All thoughts are welcome

Everyday up a little - better than old man tracking. You don't buy, mkt forced you to buy.

I have already re-iterated my stance - bull market to 2016/17 with STI topping 6000 by then. By end of 2014, when Fed decide to unwind loose monetary policies, market should be a little nervous but economic momentum should be away to slowly absorbed the slow climb in US interest rates.

When I tell everyone to remain invested and keep searching for values, many people looked at me with dropped jaws and think that I m a green creature from out of the earth...

GG

(11-04-2013, 10:28 PM)2V. Wrote: In summary: Yr 2013 DOW 16000, Yr 2014 DOW 18000

Valuation will move to 18-20X PE

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000160013

All thoughts are welcome

Hi all, I've been lurking ard this forum for a while now, and thought it is a great forum with alot of knowledge sharing. I'm currently reading "the most impt thing" (thanks to fellow forum buddies for introducing the book), and came across Howard Marks' latest memo to his clients, on his views on the equity market

I have cut and pasted the concluding remarks from his memo, and for those interested in the entire article, i have also attached the pdf. Enjoy!

"A great rotation? Maybe . . . or maybe not. Nowadays pundits and the media are quick to come up with cute labels – usually just the right size for a headline or sound bite – to describe things that are taking place or that “everyone knows” are just around the corner. I don’t know whether it’s going to be great. Heck, I don’t even know if it’ll happen. But I like to enumerate the pros and cons and try to put them in perspective, as much as I like skewering excessive generalizations and pat pronouncements.



Of course, doing that isn’t enough. I feel I should come down on one side or the other. Thus I’m quite comfortable imagining a few years of equity performance that provide a pleasant surprise relative to what I think is the prevailing expectation of 6% or so per year.



And if I’m wrong – if there is no rotation from fixed income to stocks – I’m not that worried that I’ll end up with great regret over having failed to pile into T-bills yielding zero or the 10-year note guaranteeing 2.0%. When attitudes are moderate and allocations are low, like I feel is currently the case with equities, there’s little likelihood of investing being a big mistake. And when interest rates are among the lowest in history, it would take deflation, depression or calamity to make failing to invest in Treasurys and high grade bonds a serious omission."

(12-04-2013, 07:35 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: When I tell everyone to remain invested and keep searching for values, many people looked at me with dropped jaws and think that I m a green creature from out of the earth...

With your nickname as GG, who can blame them?

(12-04-2013, 09:32 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(12-04-2013, 07:35 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: When I tell everyone to remain invested and keep searching for values, many people looked at me with dropped jaws and think that I m a green creature from out of the earth...

With your nickname as GG, who can blame them?

Hi MW,

Thanks for appreciating me for who I am.

Cheers
GG

(12-04-2013, 09:17 AM)rokcradle Wrote: Hi all, I've been lurking ard this forum for a while now, and thought it is a great forum with alot of knowledge sharing. I'm currently reading "the most impt thing" (thanks to fellow forum buddies for introducing the book), and came across Howard Marks' latest memo to his clients, on his views on the equity market

I have cut and pasted the concluding remarks from his memo, and for those interested in the entire article, i have also attached the pdf. Enjoy!

"A great rotation? Maybe . . . or maybe not. Nowadays pundits and the media are quick to come up with cute labels – usually just the right size for a headline or sound bite – to describe things that are taking place or that “everyone knows” are just around the corner. I don’t know whether it’s going to be great. Heck, I don’t even know if it’ll happen. But I like to enumerate the pros and cons and try to put them in perspective, as much as I like skewering excessive generalizations and pat pronouncements.



Of course, doing that isn’t enough. I feel I should come down on one side or the other. Thus I’m quite comfortable imagining a few years of equity performance that provide a pleasant surprise relative to what I think is the prevailing expectation of 6% or so per year.



And if I’m wrong – if there is no rotation from fixed income to stocks – I’m not that worried that I’ll end up with great regret over having failed to pile into T-bills yielding zero or the 10-year note guaranteeing 2.0%. When attitudes are moderate and allocations are low, like I feel is currently the case with equities, there’s little likelihood of investing being a big mistake. And when interest rates are among the lowest in history, it would take deflation, depression or calamity to make failing to invest in Treasurys and high grade bonds a serious omission."

Nice article.. I also dont understand why anyone would invest in 10 year notes yielding 2% now. 10 years later, your net worth will at most increase by 20%, isnt that silly? I would rather keep my money under the pillow, wait for a chance to bet big when the stock market shows a big correction within the next 10 years.

I had the opportunity of meeting Jeremy Siegel some 16 years ago, known for his book stocks for the long run. He was a professor of NYC giving a lecture on bonds. The most striking thing that stood out to me however was that he couldn't live without his Bloomberg And at times he was frozen while teaching, staring at the Bloomberg screen, during the 97 crash Nonetheless it was more interesting than NUS because he was trying to interpret real live bond yields and commodity curves rather than some static academic charts.

And of course he went on to be bullish during dot com and supportive of Dow 36,000. Point is since 16 years ago, I have never known him to change his bullishness. Do correct me with articles if I am wrong