Heeton Holdings

(13-03-2013, 11:07 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(08-03-2013, 06:15 PM)kelvesy Wrote: Looking at its RNAV or NAV, indeed, the safety of margin is high. There is a huge disconnect between the prices of properties and property stocks.

With low interest rates expected to remain, a more stablised economy forward, and resident population growth, I believe property stocks have room to grow. I think what's stopping the prices from rising could be the possiblity of future cooling measures by the government. Property stocks did badly today.

These cooling measures are not cooling propetry prices but property stock prices which is extremely absurd because buying and selling property stocks does not attract any ABSD OR SSD.

haha that's true but you also have to factor in the fact that with all these cooling measures, the property speculators will be less keen to buy from developers to flip so to a certain extent, should also affect the share price

(13-03-2013, 11:21 AM)safetyfirst Wrote:

(13-03-2013, 11:07 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(08-03-2013, 06:15 PM)kelvesy Wrote: Looking at its RNAV or NAV, indeed, the safety of margin is high. There is a huge disconnect between the prices of properties and property stocks.

With low interest rates expected to remain, a more stablised economy forward, and resident population growth, I believe property stocks have room to grow. I think what's stopping the prices from rising could be the possiblity of future cooling measures by the government. Property stocks did badly today.

These cooling measures are not cooling propetry prices but property stock prices which is extremely absurd because buying and selling property stocks does not attract any ABSD OR SSD.

haha that's true but you also have to factor in the fact that with all these cooling measures, the property speculators will be less keen to buy from developers to flip so to a certain extent, should also affect the share price

THe problem is : That is not happening at all. Recent new launches are still being sold like hot cakes. The time frame taken to sell a new launch may have been extended by a few months but the bottomline is this: New developments eventually get sold out and Developers get their fat profits.

Heeton will certainly have good cashflow coming in this year from the TOP of The Boutiq in FY 2013.

Heeton AgM yesterday: shareholders ask for bonus issue, mgt seems to willing to consider.

El centro prob likely to be redeveloped after all into 18 storey building with shops on first floor.

Co has many JV projects launching this year, as soon as next 2 months including: Newest at Hong Leong Gdn, Seletar Gdn, King Albert Park and even Whitley landed houses. First 3 projects got retail shops, so would be interesting, especially bcos Oxley is leading the charge.

But every 1ct that Oxley makes from the above projects Heeton will make 3ct bcos (1) Heeton has fewer shares (2) Heeton's share of the project per share is higher. So that is to say, if Newest makes money, for every 1 Oxley share u own if u earn 3 ct, but if u buy 1 Heeton share u will earn 9ct.

(26-04-2013, 01:21 PM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: Heeton AgM yesterday: shareholders ask for bonus issue, mgt seems to willing to consider.

El centro prob likely to be redeveloped after all into 18 storey building with shops on first floor.

Co has many JV projects launching this year, as soon as next 2 months including: Newest at Hong Leong Gdn, Seletar Gdn, King Albert Park and even Whitley landed houses. First 3 projects got retail shops, so would be interesting, especially bcos Oxley is leading the charge.

But every 1ct that Oxley makes from the above projects Heeton will make 3ct bcos (1) Heeton has fewer shares (2) Heeton's share of the project per share is higher. So that is to say, if Newest makes money, for every 1 Oxley share u own if u earn 3 ct, but if u buy 1 Heeton share u will earn 9ct.

Heeton's effective in those projects are only 10% based on their 1/3 stake in Unique Development.

Were you the guy sitting directly in front?

R-o-P is correct... it's not one-third coz the vehicle used is not Unique Development but..

Unique Consortium: Heeton=35%, KSH=35%, TEE=20%, Zap=10%
Unique Rezi: Heeton=42%, KSH=42%, TEE=0%, Zap=16%

Unique Consortium had a 35% stake in NeWest and Seletar Gardens, Unique Rezi stake in KAP is 30%
thus Heeton and KSH each, have the same effective interests of 12.25% in NeWest(HongLeongGarden), 12.25% in Seletar Gardens, and 12.6% for KAP.

Thus the "per share" earnings sensitivity of the JV Partners to below projects are as follows: (based on their Issued Shrs as at Dec2012)
HongLeong Garden: Oxley=1.0, Ksh=1.7, Hee=2.9, Tee=0.8
Seletar Garden : Oxley=1.0, Ksh=1.7, Hee=2.9, Tee=0.8
King Albert Park: Oxley=1.0, Ksh=1.8, Hee=3.0, Tee=0.0

Heeton is a very high RNAV stock bcos of its small capital base. i think RNAV is easily above $2.

Problem is mgt is unable to sell some of its completed and to be completed projects, i.e. Lumos and I liv at Grange; also it has to unlock value for shareholders by exiting Sun Plaza; it has also to start selling El Centro new project.

For those it has no control bcos its just a smaller JV partner i feel better as the other partners have a say, so these are in good hand.

Heeton has to unlock value for shareholders, that's the most important. but otherwise its a safe stock since it trades only at about 30% of RNAV.

(29-04-2013, 06:20 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: Heeton is a very high RNAV stock bcos of its small capital base. i think RNAV is easily above $2.

can you explain roughly how you arrived at the $2 RNAV? thanks!!

Management Indicated about hidden value in Sun Plaza and Elcentro. Elcentro may be redeveloped or revamped according to market sentiment...and of course subject to changes in the master plan.

My crude estimate of RNAV is like this:

Present NAv stated in Dec 2012 report: $1.28

Potential net profit (after tax) from unsold units at Lumos and iLiv (assume Heeton lower ASP to $2,300 psf for Lumos and $2,750 psf for iLiv) = $62m

Net profit from sold & unsold units at The Boutiq, Palacio, Sky Green, Newest, seletar gdn, KAP, Whitley site, Sam Leong = $101m

Net profit from El Centro redevelopment (assume ASP of $2,800 psf, NSA 60,420sf and given $76m book value now) = $49m

Total = $212m divided by 223.4m shares = 95 ct per share.

Ignore any further gains from Sun Plaza shd it be sold.

Add $95ct to $1.28 = $2.23.

I must emphasize crude calculation ok, but u get the picture.

(29-04-2013, 10:57 AM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: My crude estimate of RNAV is like this:

Present NAv stated in Dec 2012 report: $1.28

Potential net profit (after tax) from unsold units at Lumos and iLiv (assume Heeton lower ASP to $2,300 psf for Lumos and $2,750 psf for iLiv) = $62m

Net profit from sold & unsold units at The Boutiq, Palacio, Sky Green, Newest, seletar gdn, KAP, Whitley site, Sam Leong = $101m

Net profit from El Centro redevelopment (assume ASP of $2,800 psf, NSA 60,420sf and given $76m book value now) = $49m

Total = $212m divided by 223.4m shares = 95 ct per share.

Ignore any further gains from Sun Plaza shd it be sold.

Add $95ct to $1.28 = $2.23.

I must emphasize crude calculation ok, but u get the picture.

Redevelopment from elcentro got to be taken out from your calculations. Its not a sure thing at this point because Management already said if they spruce up the building, they can ask for something like 20% higher in gross rents.