Neratel

FY12 Results are out. Maintain Div = 4ct. EPS = 5.36ct, Q4 = 1.07ct, weaker than I expected. Have not looked into details yet.

What is your expectation? 4 cts div is very good already..

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4Q EPS = 1.07 cts vs 1.67 cts LY
FY12 EPS = 5.36 cts vs 3.73 cts LY

Overall, looks like company performance is good. Right?

(08-02-2013, 09:57 AM)Picanto Wrote: What is your expectation? 4 cts div is very good already..

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4Q EPS = 1.07 cts vs 1.67 cts LY
FY12 EPS = 5.36 cts vs 3.73 cts LY

Overall, looks like company performance is good. Right?

I think Q1,Q2,Q3 2012 had been good and exceeded YoY result (especially growth from MENA market) hence we are expecting higher dividend payout... But to be surprise, Q4 result profit slipped ......

MrMarket had reacted in the opening market wih the heavy sell down....

(08-02-2013, 09:57 AM)Picanto Wrote: What is your expectation? 4 cts div is very good already..

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4Q EPS = 1.07 cts vs 1.67 cts LY
FY12 EPS = 5.36 cts vs 3.73 cts LY

Overall, looks like company performance is good. Right?

Sorry.. I love to worry.. for my stocks..

For me, Q4 EPS was a disappointment. If you look at the past couple of years, Q4 EPS was the strongest in terms of Revenue and Profit. But, yes, if we look further back, it wasn't true for FY08 and FY09. I was wrong to have assumed that FY10 and FY11 would give an indication of a new seasonal trend in EPS... Back to the drawing board... Need to re-polish my crystal ball for the new year...

I was also expecting a bigger Div, as for the past few years, they'd paid DPS > EPS (supported by Cash Flow). With the 9M EPS = 4.29ct, the probability of paying more than 4ct was high, in my expectations. So, with EPS = 5.36ct, no bigger dividend declared... ya, a bit of a disappointment. I looked at Cash Flow, no reason for not paying a higher Div, even though it was much lower compared to FY11. Perhaps new controlling shareholder has growth plans?? Especially for Indonesia market where they're based?? I sure hope so...

But, no complaints about the 4ct Div... At least, my worst fears of a potential cut in payout, to retain cash for other purposes, didn't happen... Phew! Can sleep better now, for the time being.. till I decide which stock I should worry about next...

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(08-02-2013, 11:00 AM)Gregg Wrote: I think Q1,Q2,Q3 2012 had been good and exceeded YoY result (especially growth from MENA market) hence we are expecting higher dividend payout... But to be surprise, Q4 result profit slipped ......

MrMarket had reacted in the opening market wih the heavy sell down....

Ya, but it also ran up very fast from 53.5ct (I missed buying more at this price as I wasn't decisive enough) to 59.5ct within a couple of weeks..

i dunno but from the looks of it seems the total DPS > FCF

Nera cashflow took a beating. Dividend about 14m but FCF about 11m.

Sorry... I was only looking at OCF + wondering to myself about the Increase in Stocks + Decrease in Payables, the 2 main causes of lower OCF...We continue to see the bigger imbalance between Receivables and Payables.. Continue to observe for next Qs.

(08-02-2013, 11:24 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Sorry... I was only looking at OCF + wondering to myself about the Increase in Stocks + Decrease in Payables, the 2 main causes of lower OCF...We continue to see the bigger imbalance between Receivables and Payables.. Continue to observe for next Qs.

I had divested at 0.57...
Let see how it goes in the coming quarter..

Gregg Wrote:I had divested at 0.57...
Let see how it goes in the coming quarter..

It's still 7% Yield @ 57ct, continue to look not over-valued to me for a company without any debts + a tidy pile of cash.... Am not expecting prices to drop too much, at least not till xd and barring any mkt correction. So, am staying put for the time being... unless I find something else more attractive to switch to..

The released result has no 4th quarter to 3rd quarter 2012 comparison so i did a quick one to find the culprits. The year to year quarter comparison is less meaningful because last few quarters are exceptional good, probably due to they are looking for buyers.

4th vs 3rd quarter 2012
Revenue
45,374 vs 48,195
Gross profit
14,050 vs 14,292
Distribution expense
(7,768) vs (5,836)
Administrative expense
(2,899) vs (2,277)
Profit from operation
4,621 vs 6,521

From here can see if not the distribution expense has cost almost 2M more than 3rd. Why is it has rise so much in a quarter? Year end bonus given too much to staff?

Good thing is gross margin still maintain.