Fraser & Neave (F & N)

(23-01-2013, 08:13 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: I concur with your view

IMO, the F&N share price will fall to around $8.50 once the offer is closed. This is an opportunity to cash-out with good price in near term for shareholders, especially minority shareholders.

Below $8.70 first tranche of THBEV?

TCC and Thaibev need to strip out FNN cash post GO to pay for the buyout, so unlikely to drop below $9 IMHO

(23-01-2013, 11:03 AM)specuvestor Wrote: TCC and Thaibev need to strip out FNN cash post GO to pay for the buyout, so unlikely to drop below $9 IMHO

I agreed that stripping out cash of the recent disposal is the next things to do after the GO closed.

But not so sure why it will prevent it from dropping below $9?

There are many ways to skin a cow...

FNN can make an offer to another Co expand F&B business? Since APB already sold

Not vested

(23-01-2013, 11:03 AM)specuvestor Wrote: TCC and Thaibev need to strip out FNN cash post GO to pay for the buyout, so unlikely to drop below $9 IMHO

Base on the dealing disclosure of TCC Asset, another 22.5 million shares acquired on 22 Jan, out of transacted volume of 57.8 million shares! 3rd parties are acquiring along side with TCC Asset...?

Anyway, current holding 44.05%, 6% more to go...

(23-01-2013, 11:27 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-01-2013, 11:03 AM)specuvestor Wrote: TCC and Thaibev need to strip out FNN cash post GO to pay for the buyout, so unlikely to drop below $9 IMHO

I agreed that stripping out cash of the recent disposal is the next things to do after the GO closed.

But not so sure why it will prevent it from dropping below $9?

Market has shown to like capital management and cash distribution. Furthermore FNN has always been valued as a holding company discount. Distribution could be even higher than what was proposed 3 months ago or even leveraged to reduce the stress of the major shareholder.

Of course I'm not expecting it to be above $9, mid term, POST distribution

BTW I would think a lot of risk arbitrageurs burnt by this sudden turn of event and bailing out

(23-01-2013, 11:03 PM)specuvestor Wrote:

(23-01-2013, 11:27 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-01-2013, 11:03 AM)specuvestor Wrote: TCC and Thaibev need to strip out FNN cash post GO to pay for the buyout, so unlikely to drop below $9 IMHO

I agreed that stripping out cash of the recent disposal is the next things to do after the GO closed.

But not so sure why it will prevent it from dropping below $9?

Market has shown to like capital management and cash distribution. Furthermore FNN has always been valued as a holding company discount. Distribution could be even higher than what was proposed 3 months ago or even leveraged to reduce the stress of the major shareholder.

Of course I'm not expecting it to be above $9, mid term, POST distribution

BTW I would think a lot of risk arbitrageurs burnt by this sudden turn of event and bailing out

I assume the $9 is your ballpark figure. If the distribution stays similar as the previous proposal, the valuation should be around $8.5 IMO

Yes, i agree speculators are burned. Base on observations, their "conservative valuation" are around $10 before OUE thrown in the towel.

yes that observation is correct and I agree Hence I don't think it is $8.50 and the Chairman had said it's just an arbitrary figure from moving averages.

(24-01-2013, 10:56 AM)specuvestor Wrote: yes that observation is correct and I agree Hence I don't think it is $8.50 and the Chairman had said it's just an arbitrary figure from moving averages.

Yes, agree that the valuation is base on the volume weighted average price traded over five full days before announcement. It is Mr Market valuation before the 1st GO from TCC Asset and after the disposal completion.

It should be a good reference IMO

Anyway, this is for the purpose of exchanging opinions, together with relevant references.

No one know the right answer now till THE day. Ballpark figure from experience investor is also another good reference IMO

The dealing disclosure of TCC Asset, another 12.5 million shares acquired on 23 Jan, out of transacted volume of 14.0 million shares

Current holding 44.92%, 5% more to go...

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...D00115C9B/$file/DealingsAnnouncement240113.pdf?openelement