Blackberry (formerly "Research In Motion")

(21-01-2013, 04:05 PM)Wildreamz Wrote:

(20-01-2013, 10:27 AM)freedom Wrote: apparently, you are still living in the history. BlackBerry's new OS is going to launch Jan 30th. No more delay. RIM is well prepared with more cash for the launch. more than 100 carriers will carry the new BlackBerry. RIM also restructures its service fee to stay competitive.

There is unique feature in BlackBerry 10, such as BlackBerry Balance, which is really amazing for BYOD corporations trends.

RIM has been punished enough in the last two years, traded as low as around US$6 only. Besides, RIM does not need to sell as many phones as Apple or Android to be relevant. It only needs a few tens of millions of sale to justify its current share price.

Android 4.2 has a similar function: Multi-user (albeit, currently only available on tablets). HTC Sense always had multi profile support (Scenes).

Regardless, if BlackBerry Balance is really going to be a game changer, it will be far easier for competitors like Android and iOS to emulate it, than it is for BlackBerry to overcome the economic moat that Android and iOS has established over the past 5 years.

Also, BlackBerry 10, is going to enter a competitive market with fierce competition. One that many like them have tried and failed (WebOS, MeeGo, Symbian), and more that is still trying to get a piece of the mobile pie. For example, Ubuntu Mobile OS (intuitive, open source), WP8 (vertically integrate, strong financial backing; despite all its promises, enjoyed limited success).

About porting Apps, it isn't as easy as it sounds. Many native Android app doesn't even work well on Android naively, due to the many different screen size and hardware across the Android ecosystem. Getting it to work flawlessly on all BlackBerry 10 device is going to be difficult to say the least.

Not going to condemn BlackBerry indefinitely, but BlackBerry is going to be a very risky turnaround play.

if that's the case, everybody should tell Apple not to enter smartphone in 2007 because it was a competitive market with fierce competition. There were so many players then, Blackberry, WebOs, Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc.

L.O.L

so by your guess, how many millions of smartphones RIMM should sell to be relevant?

(21-01-2013, 04:12 PM)freedom Wrote: if that's the case, everybody should tell Apple not to enter smartphone in 2007 because it was a competitive market with fierce competition. There were so many players then, Blackberry, WebOs, Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc.

L.O.L

so by your guess, how many millions of smartphones RIMM should sell to be relevant?

You are comparing Apple to Oranges here (no pun intended).

The iPhone, despite what people says about it, is revolutionary in its own right, right from day 1. I don't have to list all the quality of the iPhone to prove my point. And Apple didn't even need the iPhone to be successful to survive.

I can hardly say the same about BlackBerry 10.

Regarding your second question, I don't think I am qualified to answer it without detailed analysis.

(21-01-2013, 05:20 PM)Wildreamz Wrote:

(21-01-2013, 04:12 PM)freedom Wrote: if that's the case, everybody should tell Apple not to enter smartphone in 2007 because it was a competitive market with fierce competition. There were so many players then, Blackberry, WebOs, Symbian, Windows Mobile, etc.

L.O.L

so by your guess, how many millions of smartphones RIMM should sell to be relevant?

You are comparing Apple to Oranges here (no pun intended).

The iPhone, despite what people says about it, is revolutionary in its own right, right from day 1. I don't have to list all the quality of the iPhone to prove my point. And Apple didn't even need the iPhone to be successful to survive.

I can hardly say the same about BlackBerry 10.

Regarding your second question, I don't think I am qualified to answer it without detailed analysis.

but you are qualified to determine RIM is a very risky turnaround play without detailed analysis?

Your question sound a little aggressive and possibly rhetorical.

Let me clarify my stance, I am just giving my opinion based on my impression of the BB10 OS, and my general understanding on the financials of RIM. It is by no means definitive.

Anybody is free to disagree.

Peace.

(21-01-2013, 05:43 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Your question sound a little aggressive and possibly rhetorical.

Let me clarify my stance, I am just giving my opinion based on my impression of the BB10 OS, and my general understanding on the financials of RIM. It is by no means definitive.

Anybody is free to disagree.

Peace.

I am just trying to understand and let other understand the same that how and why you made your judgement.

No truth should be established without being argued. I don't believe that I am being aggressive in this front. Of course, unless you are so high that no one should challenge your judgement.

Shalom, as learned from someone in the forum.

Let me summarise my points, with a few additional pointers.

1. RIM has a history of mismanagement, delays (playbook, lack of email services during initial launch of Playbook) after delays. Even the current porting of apps to the BB10 seems rushed. Why give developers less than 1 month to port apps over to their device?

2. Their net income has been on a year on year decline, including several quarters of loss last year, which coincides with their declining sales/market share.

3. RIM relies on the commercial success of their BB10 devices. To regain loss market share and to turnaround from their current slum.

4. I have not seen any distinct features provided by BB10 OS that sets it apart from its competitors (this is a point that I have went through in detail).

These are just my opinions based on my impression of the BB10 OS. I am not sure if I am "qualified" to give an opinion by your standard, but that is how I came to the conclusion that investing in RIM is risky.

Let me know your thoughts.

(21-01-2013, 09:02 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Let me summarise my points, with a few additional pointers.

1. RIM has a history of mismanagement, delays (playbook, lack of email services during initial launch of Playbook) after delays. Even the current porting of apps to the BB10 seems rushed. Why give developers less than 1 month to port apps over to their device?

2. Their net income has been on a year on year decline, including several quarters of loss last year, which coincides with their declining sales/market share.

3. RIM relies on the commercial success of their BB10 devices. To regain loss market share and to turnaround from their current slum.

4. I have not seen any distinct features provided by BB10 OS that sets it apart from its competitors (this is a point that I have went through in detail).

These are just my opinions based on my impression of the BB10 OS. I am not sure if I am "qualified" to give an opinion by your standard, but that is how I came to the conclusion that investing in RIM is risky.

Let me know your thoughts.

Quote:Regarding your second question, I don't think I am qualified to answer it without detailed analysis.

qualified or not, it is your word. I just re-use it in another way only.

and I am going to respond more of your perception/imagination or histories(if history is of any use, Apple would be dead long time ago, Nortel/Kodak would still be superb company) rather just to speak just hard facts.

1. the book value of RIMM is around US$18 which comprises mainly cash, patents and PPE. RIM has no debts.

2. How many phones did RIM sell? and how many phones will RIM need to sell to be worth what it is worth now?

In FY 2013, RIM has shipped 6.9 million(Q3), 7.4 million(Q2), 7.8 million(Q1) BB7 smartphones. Bear in mind that BB7 smartphones are several generations away from IPhone or Android smartphones.

In FY 2012, RIM has sold 11.1 million (Q4), 14.1 million(Q3), 10.6 million(Q2), 13.2 million(Q1) smartphones. Bear in mind that at the same time, Apple were selling IPhone 3GS, IPhone 4 and IPhone 4S.

In FY2012, RIM was earning more than US$ 2 billion(before provision & goodwill impairment) on around 50 million smartphones which was against the best selling IPhone 3GS, 4 and 4S. In FY2013, RIM was losing money mainly because it was flushing out its old BB7 & playbook inventories, which were largely sold below break-even price.

And RIM now has an active subscriber base of around 80 million. BlackBerry though is without break-through features as you claim, at least it is at par with current generation of IPhone and Android smartphones. If by any indications, RIM would be able to sell 30 - 40 million its new generation of BB10 devices, earning half of its FY2012 margin, it can earn around US$ 1 billion, which is about US$2 per share.

RIM now gets support of all major telecom players in US to carry BB10 smartphone, bear in mind that major telecom players were not enthusiastic to carry BB7 line of smartphones. Worldwide smartphone users reach 1billion, so 30 - 40 million sale of BB10 smartphone does not look like an uphill task.


It is very risky to bet that RIM would be worth US$ 40 or above, It would be crazy to think that RIM can compete with Apple(worth more than 400 billion, RIM would be worth only 20+ billion even it was US$40 per share) or Samsung. but it is not that risky to think that RIM would be selling at US$ 20.

I see you are predicting the BlackBerry 10 sales based on their FY2012's results. Fair enough. But do bear in mind that the smartphone landscape has changed completely since then, both Android and iOS advanced several generations, with the Android platform catching up drastically with iOS over the last few years.

Hoping that the BB10 device is going to be on par with Android and iOS is certainly a tall order, especially in the app/developer front. Android took several generations to be considered on par with iOS, despite massive developer support. And Windows Phone as polish as it is at launch, struggled to acquire 2% of the global market share, as of Q3 2012.

I am not naive enough to believe I can predict the sales figure of the new generation of BB device. Perhaps you are right. Maybe I am just a pessimist.

your argument is the same as all those arguments when RIM was trading at US$6 per share. so I believe most of arguments must be untrue, otherwise, why is RIM trading above C$17 now in TSX.

(22-01-2013, 12:04 AM)freedom Wrote: your argument is the same as all those arguments when RIM was trading at US$6 per share. so I believe most of arguments must be untrue, otherwise, why is RIM trading above C$17 now in TSX.

I agree it was a good move to enter this counter when RIM was trading below $10, given the facts that you quoted, "book value of RIMM is around US$18 which comprises mainly cash, patents and PPE. RIM has no debts".

Also given the fact that BB10 will be launching this month, optimism will naturally be up.

A turnaround play is risky by its very nature. I hope BlackBerry 10 take the world by storm on January 30, competition is always healthy for innovation.

Good luck with your investment, at your entry price, I hardly think you will make a loss.