New launches still attracting crowds but...

> sometimes i feel that we are wasting our time doing stock analysis.
> ppty investment is straightforward & safer, yet gives better return.
> bcos u borrow 80%, ur returns are actually multiple by 4.

This is exactly what majority of the buyers think. It is true in 08 and most parts of 09.

If the buyers buy Sky habitat for $1600psf, a 3 bedroom apartment cost $1.92M.
Cash outlay is > $400K.

For the next set of buyers to come in and buy at $2.3M, the price upside will be harder...

The buyers esp H2 last year... I dont know how sure...

The thing is that it does not take a genius to realise that SGP is in a long term uptrend, as long as u hv holding power, u will at least breakeven.
This is not for the case of stocks, how many stocks hv u bought b4 yet till today still remain underwater?

(21-01-2013, 10:29 AM)Contrarian Wrote: > sometimes i feel that we are wasting our time doing stock analysis.
> ppty investment is straightforward & safer, yet gives better return.
> bcos u borrow 80%, ur returns are actually multiple by 4.

This is exactly what majority of the buyers think. It is true in 08 and most parts of 09.

If the buyers buy Sky habitat for $1600psf, a 3 bedroom apartment cost $1.92M.
Cash outlay is > $400K.

For the next set of buyers to come in and buy at $2.3M, the price upside will be harder...

The buyers esp H2 last year... I dont know how sure...

(21-01-2013, 10:42 AM)funman168 Wrote: The thing is that it does not take a genius to realise that SGP is in a long term uptrend, as long as u hv holding power, u will at least breakeven.
This is not for the case of stocks, how many stocks hv u bought b4 yet till today still remain underwater?

S-Chips should serve as one answer for the last question.

(21-01-2013, 10:12 AM)funman168 Wrote: sometimes i feel that we are wasting our time doing stock analysis.
ppty investment is straightforward & safer, yet gives better return.
bcos u borrow 80%, ur returns are actually multiple by 4.

I respectfully disagree.

Property is not straightforward, you need a lot of research, reading and analysis. It is also illiquid and transaction costs can be substantial.

It is also not "safer" because leverage is involved. Better returns are only a result of the last few years' bull market and is based also on leveraged returns.

Stock give you the benefit of rising dividends over a 20-year period, for the quality blue-chips, and that is excluding capital appreciation when the Company grows its earnings and cash flows.

Just to chip in...

If SG economy can grow perpetually, then one should consider buying STI ETF... in the long term, it grows with the economy. This will eliminate downside risk of individual company.

On the property, most property is 99 leasehold. Thus its value will depreciate (>30 years old). At the end of life, the value is Zero! Govt is the winner at the end of lease.

(21-01-2013, 10:54 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(21-01-2013, 10:42 AM)funman168 Wrote: The thing is that it does not take a genius to realise that SGP is in a long term uptrend, as long as u hv holding power, u will at least breakeven.
This is not for the case of stocks, how many stocks hv u bought b4 yet till today still remain underwater?

S-Chips should serve as one answer for the last question.

Well, for layman illiquid is a gd thing. how many times when u r a beginner in stock investment did u run rd ur stk investment just because of sm news or events n lose $? even if u make u tend to spend it all away.

for layman, i feel it is better off to invest in ppty. unless he can reach expert level like urself, else he is better off nt to dabble in stocks.

wat level of difficulity wld u rate ppty investment research compare to stocks? i rate stock easily a 6 or 7, whereas ppty only a 3 or 4 in terms of difficulty

(21-01-2013, 11:03 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(21-01-2013, 10:12 AM)funman168 Wrote: sometimes i feel that we are wasting our time doing stock analysis.
ppty investment is straightforward & safer, yet gives better return.
bcos u borrow 80%, ur returns are actually multiple by 4.

I respectfully disagree.

Property is not straightforward, you need a lot of research, reading and analysis. It is also illiquid and transaction costs can be substantial.

It is also not "safer" because leverage is involved. Better returns are only a result of the last few years' bull market and is based also on leveraged returns.

Stock give you the benefit of rising dividends over a 20-year period, for the quality blue-chips, and that is excluding capital appreciation when the Company grows its earnings and cash flows.

(21-01-2013, 11:10 AM)Ray168 Wrote: Just to chip in...

If SG economy can grow perpetually, then one should consider buying STI ETF... in the long term, it grows with the economy. This will eliminate downside risk of individual company.

On the property, most property is 99 leasehold. Thus its value will depreciate (>30 years old). At the end of life, the value is Zero! Govt is the winner at the end of lease.

(21-01-2013, 10:54 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(21-01-2013, 10:42 AM)funman168 Wrote: The thing is that it does not take a genius to realise that SGP is in a long term uptrend, as long as u hv holding power, u will at least breakeven.
This is not for the case of stocks, how many stocks hv u bought b4 yet till today still remain underwater?

S-Chips should serve as one answer for the last question.

Good point on 99 years leasehold...Actually you can do a simple spreadsheet for 99 years property appreciating at 4% PA and 1/99 discount factor a year and see that the property price will start stagnate and go down around 2/3 ie 66 years.

This is important because the psyche of the market is properties will continue to go up because HDB is only 50 years old. It wil be interesting to see what HDB will do to the old HDB units in the next 20 years because I sense that they will not open the Pandora's box and let the old HDB depreciate. They have already started to relax loan constraints on the remaining life of old HDB units.

(21-01-2013, 11:17 AM)funman168 Wrote: Well, for layman illiquid is a gd thing. how many times when u r a beginner in stock investment did u run rd ur stk investment just because of sm news or events n lose $? even if u make u tend to spend it all away.

for layman, i feel it is better off to invest in ppty. unless he can reach expert level like urself, else he is better off nt to dabble in stocks.

wat level of difficulity wld u rate ppty investment research compare to stocks? i rate stock easily a 6 or 7, whereas ppty only a 3 or 4 in terms of difficulty

When I was starting out, it was tough to control emotions and remain rational and objective. But even if I did make money, I did not have the tendency to spend it; I would rather reinvest it. I am not very inclined to spend money, if you know me well.

I am far from being an expert in stocks. There are events such as Kingsmen's fraud which I could not have reasonably anticipated, so I think I still have a lot to learn with regards to investing.

I rate equity investment as a 7/8 in terms of difficulty. For property, it would be 8/9.

(21-01-2013, 11:55 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(21-01-2013, 11:17 AM)funman168 Wrote: Well, for layman illiquid is a gd thing. how many times when u r a beginner in stock investment did u run rd ur stk investment just because of sm news or events n lose $? even if u make u tend to spend it all away.

for layman, i feel it is better off to invest in ppty. unless he can reach expert level like urself, else he is better off nt to dabble in stocks.

wat level of difficulity wld u rate ppty investment research compare to stocks? i rate stock easily a 6 or 7, whereas ppty only a 3 or 4 in terms of difficulty

When I was starting out, it was tough to control emotions and remain rational and objective. But even if I did make money, I did not have the tendency to spend it; I would rather reinvest it. I am not very inclined to spend money, if you know me well.

I am far from being an expert in stocks. There are events such as Kingsmen's fraud which I could not have reasonably anticipated, so I think I still have a lot to learn with regards to investing.

I rate equity investment as a 7/8 in terms of difficulty. For property, it would be 8/9.

I would rate equity investment as 8 in difficulty, while property investment as probably only 5 IMO

(21-01-2013, 10:26 AM)kichialo Wrote: Budget of $700k, means they have 50 or 60% cash $350k to $400k.

Yes. Teachers are very well paid actually. Almost all of my friends who are in teaching and 39 years old have bought a condo. One teacher couple 39 years old bought a pent house unit costing 1.5mil. Bought during 1st half last year. Another one recently bought an additonal condo unit. Iron rice bowl provided they behave themselves and dont hanky panky with their students.