Investment question

Hope senior forummers can enlighten me of what u would do if u are in this situation.

A company which I researched on:
Confident of its earnings for the next 2-3 years.
Provide dividend yield 6-8%
At a discount to RNAV.

When I first bought it, I expect to collect dividends even if the price fall since it has paid dividends since its IPO more than a decade ago.

But in a short span of 2 months, it suddenly surged more than 30%. I am of course very happy, but is thinking if I should sell and take profits or should I just sit through the cycles. I am very tempted to sell as the counter has exceed my target and is a very competitive and cyclical industry. I am not sure what will it be like 3 urs later too. Although its track records is good, it is still a small player, with no significant moat. So, what should I be consider in my decision ?
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Is the surge sustainable? real cashflow coming in due to real biz revenue increase?
If yes, hold on to it... an actual re-rating in place means more upside to come!

If no good reason for the price to go up... then take profit off the table!! :O

So what's the counter? tell lah!

This is one of the method i used to sell my shares. To me , every 10 years there is a recession where stock prices will become very depressed. We have gone through ~5 years after the last recession. So within the next 5 years i expect another recession to occur.

If the current capital gain of the share i am holding on > 5yrs x dividend yield, i will consider selling.

Normally, I would still sit tight if the valuation is still reasonable. If I feel that it is overvalued, I will target to sell an initial tranche of 20%-30% of my holdings.

You can never go wrong by taking profit.

Don't be too greedy to try to capture all the profit. a lot of times, people end taking loss.

if your gain is only 1-2 years what you could get from div then no point to sell.

Right now money is flowing into funds that are coming into asia, interest rates are still low rates will follow US federal reserve.

I also believe a possible recession in 5 years timeline. Typically every time the Fed acts they will need to wait 2 years to see it's effect.

So working backards the last x fed announced qe3 was back in sept 2012, qe2 happened in 2010 and qe1 in 2008

so using this we can expect the next time the fed makes another change whether to continue liquidity or stop it will be sometime in late 2014

still a long way.


just my opnions.

for me I think think about how much the value is worth
example if I thought the business is worth $2 base on its future cash flow
and I bought the stock at $1.50, I might sell it once it reaches $2 or higher

also must see got any other good deals to buy or not, if nothing else to move the cash to,
then maybe better to just park and ride on the bull market

(06-01-2013, 07:28 PM)Greenrookie Wrote: is a very competitive and cyclical industry. I am not sure what will it be like 3 urs later too. Although its track records is good, it is still a small player, with no significant moat.

Actually i was thinking, you got so many questionable doubts and concerns about this counter, why you still buy it in the first place?

maybe easier if u just say which counter

(07-01-2013, 04:54 PM)felixleong Wrote: maybe easier if u just say which counter

Hi Felix, i just read yr blog. interesting and thanks for sharing.
r u a full-time poker player? and is felix yr real name? and u said u aim to achieve 1mio by 40yo. How old roughly r u now? may i ask?thanks.