New Toyo

As New Toyo will be reporting its full year results soon, share price and volume should pick up soon in anticipation of the dividends to be declared.

(03-01-2013, 11:35 PM)Underdogger Wrote: if you refer to their capex for the 1st 9mth of this year, it was only a meager $2.4mi. As stated by Tien Wah in its AR 2011, capex expansion has been completed and it is going to reap the benefits like milking a cashcow

So, actually, most of the net operating CF can be used as cash reserve.
this will bring the net cash level to even higher level at around 10 cents by end of FY12 and when SAH fully winds down.

27 cents (market value) - 10 cents of cash = 17 cents.
Does the intrinsic business of EPS (3.5 to 4 cents) only worth 17 cents, and we are talking about a debt-free company having a monopolistic hold on cigarette packaging and printing....
Pls ask this question to yourself

(03-01-2013, 05:55 PM)Stockerman Wrote: Wow, i think New Toyo is going to have close to 25 cents cash once SAH fully winds down (before netting off any debts)

Every year, it adds about $40mil NET operating cashflow. Seems that Capex has stopped and New Toyo is going to be super cash rich...

$26 mil (at end of FY11 or start of FY12)
+ $30mil (say 25% of Net operating CF used up)
+ $55mil (from SAH)
= $ 111 mil of cash (by end of FY12).

Total debt/finance leases at group level (start of FY12)
= $74mil.

Net Cash (i.e. all debts pay off) = $37mil or 8.4 cents, out of NAV of 36 cents.
technically, debts are at very sustainable level and there is no real need to pare off debt to ZERO...

This is a total debt free company and has a monopoly hold on cigarette printing in the Asia Pacific regions with long term supply contracts with BAT, PMI, etc...
And it is only 27 cents...

I think it is a matter of time that big fund houses step in

when will it report its fy result?

It usually reports the financial year results in mid Feb.

(04-01-2013, 06:05 AM)pianist Wrote: when will it report its fy result?

likely to continue with 0.8 cents per shares for final dividends...
since they already cited that there is no revenue stream from SAH.

in fact, will be very surprised if they give more than 0.8 cents...
so full yr will be 1.6 cents
dividend yield of only 6% - so so...

(04-01-2013, 08:57 AM)Louhan Wrote: It usually reports the financial year results in mid Feb.

(04-01-2013, 06:05 AM)pianist Wrote: when will it report its fy result?

does New Toyo deserve to be priced at 27 cents or so, given that
a. with full wind-down of SAH, it will end up with cash of some 20 cents
b. An ongoing recession-proof cigarette printing/packaging business contract with BAT, PMI, etc with eps of around 3.5 cents.

In comparison, Tien Wah current P/E is 7.41. Applying it to New Toyo (parent company), New Toyo should be valued at 26 cents (without any cash).

With 20 cents cash, then should be worth around 45 to 46 cents..

(09-01-2013, 04:54 PM)Underdogger Wrote: does New Toyo deserve to be priced at 27 cents or so, given that
a. with full wind-down of SAH, it will end up with cash of some 20 cents
b. An ongoing recession-proof cigarette printing/packaging business contract with BAT, PMI, etc with eps of around 3.5 cents.

Hi Underdogger,

As at 9M2012:
Number of shares = 439.4 million
Cash = SGD 43 million
>> Cash per share = 9.8 cents

Non-Current Financial Liabilities = SGD 15.8 million
Current Financial Liabilities = SGD 27.4 million
>> Cash per share (Net of Financial Liabilities) = close to zero

Dividend received from SAH in 3Q2012 = SGD 25.457 million
Outstanding distribution from SAH = 0.34 x 86.7 = SGD 29.5 million
>> Outstanding Cash per share from SAH = 6.7 cents

>> Cash per share = 16.5 cents or 6.7 cents (Net of Financial Liabilities) with full winding down of SAH.

How do you arrive at 20 cents? Or am I misunderstood something? Thanks.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...700315D09/$file/SAH_Ann_Nov_2012.pdf?openelement

As prevously explained by Stockerman, I reproduce the figures with some amendments:-

Every year, it adds about $40mil NET operating cashflow.

$26 mil (at end of FY11 or start of FY12)
+ $35mil (Net operating CF for full year of $40m and assuming minimal capex of $5mil)
+ $55mil (from SAH)
= $ 116 mil of cash (by end of FY12).

Total debt/finance leases at group level (start of FY12)
= $74mil.
Assuming 50% of debt is pared down by year end.
Remaining cash on hand = $79mil or 18 cents.

If we assume 30% debt being pared down, cash will be 21 cents.

I would think 30% debt pared down is too aggressive based on historical paring down of debt:-
FY10 - $20mil debt paid off
FY11 - $15mil debt paid off
FY12 - 30% of total debt = $22 mil (this is too aggressive)

New Toyo is an under-valued stock. Penny stocks have picked up recently. Soon it should be New Toyo's turn, as it is reporting its full year results and declaring the final dividends in Feb 2013.

(09-01-2013, 09:47 PM)Underdogger Wrote: As prevously explained by Stockerman, I reproduce the figures with some amendments:-

Every year, it adds about $40mil NET operating cashflow.

$26 mil (at end of FY11 or start of FY12)
+ $35mil (Net operating CF for full year of $40m and assuming minimal capex of $5mil)
+ $55mil (from SAH)
= $ 116 mil of cash (by end of FY12).

Total debt/finance leases at group level (start of FY12)
= $74mil.
Assuming 50% of debt is pared down by year end.
Remaining cash on hand = $79mil or 18 cents.

If we assume 30% debt being pared down, cash will be 21 cents.

I would think 30% debt pared down is too aggressive based on historical paring down of debt:-
FY10 - $20mil debt paid off
FY11 - $15mil debt paid off
FY12 - 30% of total debt = $22 mil (this is too aggressive)

Unless New Toyo has "New" developments to share (e.g. breaking into new markets, Africa, etc) or announcement of one-off super big special dividends of say 10 cents, it is unlikely to break beyond 30 cents...

New Toyo's share price is slowly moving upwards to 28.5 cents.

(12-01-2013, 09:14 PM)Stockerman Wrote: Unless New Toyo has "New" developments to share (e.g. breaking into new markets, Africa, etc) or announcement of one-off super big special dividends of say 10 cents, it is unlikely to break beyond 30 cents...