Fraser & Neave (F & N)

(15-11-2012, 10:05 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Time for speculation... hour(s) before OUE move...

If OUE drops the idea of an offer, then the F&N share price will be "normalized" back to around $8.88. TCC will continue its GO, and acceptance rate will start to rise...

If OUE proceeds with its offer, the 1st offer price will be around $9.10-$9.40. The sage continue...

The OUE makes the move to offer. Offer price $9.08, slightly below my speculation

OUE has Kirin support, will start with 15% acceptance.

Time for another speculation, one day before TCC's offer next closing date

It should not be surprising that TCC rises their offer price. It's the amount that shareholders are waiting...

OUE's bid price of $9.08 is an opening bid. I am speculating that TCC next bid and subsequent bids are in small incremental amount.

So the next bid should be around $9.30-$9.50

Anyone has different speculation?

How about TCC uses the same method as they deal with Heineken. Sit down, anything can talk.

unlikely. If ThaiBev loses F&N's beverage business to Kirin and unlikely Kirin is willing to share it with ThaiBev(otherwise, Kirin could partner with ThaiBev), all effort will be wasted for ThaiBev. 9.08 is not a high enough price for ThaiBev to quit.

It is more difficult for OUE & Kirin to gain more than 50% support. ThaiBev & TCC just need price high enough to scare them away.

OUE and Kirin have irrevocable undertakings and agreements. Kirin is restricted to accept other offer(s), as long as the offer is valid. So it is impossible for Kirin to negotiate with TCC before the end of the OUE offer.

TCC throw in the towel after 5pm tomorrow and accept OUE offer price $9.08?

not vested

(21-11-2012, 09:05 PM)kbl Wrote: TCC throw in the towel after 5pm tomorrow and accept OUE offer price $9.08?

not vested

Or THBev gives up the quest to increase its shareholding temporarily, holds on tight to its 30% stake and wait for OUE to make a higher offer price. Am quite sure at $9.08, OUE and Kirin will not get much more of FNN than THBev. Hence, they will raise the price further. THBev just has to bide its time and wait for a good price before unloading or they can wait even longer, see OUE/Kirin's bid fail, watch for the share price to fall post-offer and then buy back from the market. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

(21-11-2012, 09:25 PM)VestedInterest Wrote: Or THBev gives up the quest to increase its shareholding temporarily, holds on tight to its 30% stake and wait for OUE to make a higher offer price. Am quite sure at $9.08, OUE and Kirin will not get much more of FNN than THBev. Hence, they will raise the price further. THBev just has to bide its time and wait for a good price before unloading or they can wait even longer, see OUE/Kirin's bid fail, watch for the share price to fall post-offer and then buy back from the market. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Good for everyone if ThBev do not up the offer as most probably OUE's bid will fail to garner 50% + 1 share. That way, F&N do not have to pay $50M.
Win win win for all except OUE & partners suffer the cost of this bidding exercise reportedly about $50M since they are so stingy.

TCC extended the closing date to 11 Dec 2012, without raising their offer price of $8.88

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...E00313237/$file/ExtensionAnnouncement221112.pdf?openelement

It is getting more interesting for the GO...

TCC is calling OUE & Kirin bluff.