The Big Bear

this article was published on 01st Oct TheEdge magazine.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/personal-...n-tan.html

Anyone starting to hold cash now? Waiting for BigBear?

(07-10-2012, 10:53 AM)nitro Wrote: this article was published on 01st Oct TheEdge magazine.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/personal-...n-tan.html

Anyone starting to hold cash now? Waiting for BigBear?

Some people are perma-bears like our dear Dr. Doom.

If you constantly predict calamity, it will come sooner or later.

Like saying "It's going to rain" every day - one day you'll get it right!

Still vested, and looking to invest more.

Most of the stocks are pretty expensive right now.

But there are still a few good value buys out there.

I'm more optimistic and believe markets will be better, years from now.

(07-10-2012, 10:56 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(07-10-2012, 10:53 AM)nitro Wrote: this article was published on 01st Oct TheEdge magazine.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/personal-...n-tan.html

Anyone starting to hold cash now? Waiting for BigBear?

Some people are perma-bears like our dear Dr. Doom.

If you constantly predict calamity, it will come sooner or later.

Like saying "It's going to rain" every day - one day you'll get it right!

"The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead." - John Maynard Keynes

I am the proud owner of a totally broken, motionless old clock-style Seiko watch. I keep it because it precisely tells me the time two times every day.

Is the big bear really coming? I certainly hope it is. For it is the best opportunity for investor with spare cash to pounce and scoop up value counters.

However, the thing is, the more people expect a bear market to arrive, the less likely it is to happen. With the mass majority holding onto cash, waiting to jump in at the sideline upon the slightest sign of market decline, this will provide some form of price support. Bear doesn't strike when everyone is waiting for it, it strikes when you least expect it.

I personally hope there are not too many people giving warnings about bear market! Let the market rise and rise, till it becomes euphoric. This will increase the probability of market plunge. Similar to physics, the higher it rises, the faster and more it falls.

Of course, we can't predict, or even forecast, when will bear strike. Nobody knows. We can only hold on to our cash, and wait patiently, concurrently resisting our itchy fingers to enter while the market rolls on.

Every 10 years there is at least a deep recession. Dont need to wait too long liao. The last peak was in 2007. So the next peak and recession should be around 2017. Max 4.5 more years to go.

Thanks for the article....I actually wanted to post the article but I couldn't find it online.....I still keep the hard copy on my table so as to remind myself......

What Albert Edwards is saying ......Crash is coming.....buy gold and keep cash....Cash will allow you to make full use of the opportunities that will follow after the cash......

(07-10-2012, 11:42 AM)csccc Wrote: Nobody knows. We can only hold on to our cash, and wait patiently, concurrently resisting our itchy fingers to enter while the market rolls on.

yes, itchy fingers now. Long time to wait though. I just think things are expensive now especially over the last 6 months.

How much drop is considered a bear? 10%, 20% 50% or 80%?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/histor...a1900.html

Bear market investment is certainly very profitable but there is a also a thing called super long bull market.
US dow jones rose continuously from 1988 to 2000. Subsequently, the market tanked 30-40%.
But, for those investors that were waiting for the bear to strike since 1988, it did seem a bit too long and the index had risen too high.
The subsequent major drop to 7300 pts was still much much higher than 1738 in 1988.

I certainly would not want to be the investor that was holding to cash in 1988 and waiting for a major drop.