The Rise of China

suddenly so many tensions, the japanese senaku-diaoyu island tussle is old news so is the vietnamese issue, but filipinos are now trying to rename part of south china sea to west philippine sea to enforce it's claim who knows if the other neighbors are also starting to get nervous and think of novel ways to support their claims.

So long story short, will singapore still continue to play in the ASEAN games?

(13-09-2012, 09:47 AM)sgd Wrote: suddenly so many tensions, the japanese senaku-diaoyu island tussle is old news so is the vietnamese issue, but filipinos are now trying to rename part of south china sea to west philippine sea to enforce it's claim who knows if the other neighbors are also starting to get nervous and think of novel ways to support their claims.

So long story short, will singapore still continue to play in the ASEAN games?

No country will opt for war, especially during this period

IMO, the current tension is a precursor of bi-lateral negotiation. Each making a stand, and accumulating chips for negotiation later.

(13-09-2012, 09:57 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: No country will opt for war, especially during this period

IMO, the current tension is a precursor of bi-lateral negotiation. Each making a stand, and accumulating chips for negotiation later.

hmmm... I don't disagree but lets test this a bit..

If you look at the current security arrangement. Everybody is in ASEAN except South-Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and China
http://www.aseansec.org/74.htm

of which Japan, South-Korea and Australia are considered allies to US. Taiwanese have a special private arrangement with the Americans.

So aside of the US coaliation will a rising china trying to assert itself as the defacto power of this region still allow the existence of ASEAN however peaceful it may be?

So if one of the asean members later have a security issue and come running for help will we stand firm together or crumble like a house of playing cards.

If anything I'd say the CCP may be trying to dismantle ASEAN and put forth it's own agenda.

I think Singapore going to be tossed into sea of trouble in the years to come.

(13-09-2012, 10:14 AM)sgd Wrote:

(13-09-2012, 09:57 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: No country will opt for war, especially during this period

IMO, the current tension is a precursor of bi-lateral negotiation. Each making a stand, and accumulating chips for negotiation later.

hmmm... I don't disagree but lets test this a bit..

If you look at the current security arrangement. Everybody is in ASEAN except South-Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and China
http://www.aseansec.org/74.htm

of which Japan, South-Korea and Australia are considered allies to US. Taiwanese have a special private arrangement with the Americans.

So aside of the US coaliation will a rising china trying to assert itself as the defacto power of this region still allow the existence of ASEAN however peaceful it may be?

So if one of the asean members later have a security issue and come running for help will we stand firm together or crumble like a house of playing cards.

If anything I'd say the CCP may be trying to dismantle ASEAN and put forth it's own agenda.

I think Singapore going to be tossed into sea of trouble in the years to come.

I am not sure the outcome of saga. But i am sure there is common interest for keep war-free in the region. I am also sure also it is common interest for ASEAN members remain united and not undermined by the current issues of South China Sea. ASEAN should not directly involve, but remain influential.

I don't think it is US interest to agitate China. US will continue to keep a significant present, but not directly involved.

The issue involve lots of complications, bi-lateral negotiation is beneficial to a possible settlement. I have to admit that bi-lateral negotiation will favor China, since China almost out-size all others directly involved.

There is a sensible reason to exclude US from the negotiation table, as far as China is concern.

Quote:I am also sure also it is common interest for ASEAN members remain united and not undermined by the current issues of South China Sea. ASEAN should not directly involve, but remain influential.

Some ASEAN members are involved in Spratlys island disputes.
Some ASEAN members are aligned with China due to economic interests.

After 45 years since the creation of ASEAN, there isn't any significant coorperation except maybe the SEA games?
No ASEAN wide rail services.
Stock markets not connected. The regional brokerages did a better job in linking up the markets than the effort of all the ASEAN countries' governments.
Bond markets are fragmented. How to buy a thai corporate bond??
Buy sands also got problems. Both ASEAN brothers north and south not selling. So have to travel far far to buy.

Probably the lousiest organisation around.

(13-09-2012, 10:58 AM)yeokiwi Wrote:

Quote:I am also sure also it is common interest for ASEAN members remain united and not undermined by the current issues of South China Sea. ASEAN should not directly involve, but remain influential.

Some ASEAN members are involved in Spratlys island disputes.
Some ASEAN members are aligned with China due to economic interests.

After 45 years since the creation of ASEAN, there isn't any significant coorperation except maybe the SEA games?
No ASEAN wide rail services.
Stock markets not connected. The regional brokerages did a better job in linking up the markets than the effort of all the ASEAN countries' governments.
Bond markets are fragmented. How to buy a thai corporate bond??
Buy sands also got problems. Both ASEAN brothers north and south not selling. So have to travel far far to buy.

Probably the lousiest organisation around.

With 45 years since creation, it is not dissolve out of nature course, but been actively participated and enhanced by new members joined. It should be a good reason to it.

ASEAN is more of a political alliance, than a economical alliance.

(13-09-2012, 11:08 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: With 45 years since creation, it is not dissolve out of nature course, but been actively participated and enhanced by new members joined. It should be a good reason to it.
ASEAN is more of a political alliance, than a economical alliance.

Eh... it is the first bullet and first description of the ASEAN's aims and purposes.

http://www.aseansec.org/about_ASEAN.html

AIMS AND PURPOSES

As set out in the ASEAN Declaration, the aims and purposes of ASEAN are:

To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations;

To promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries of the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter;
To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic, social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative fields;
To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in the educational, professional, technical and administrative spheres;
To collaborate more effectively for the greater utilisation of their agriculture and industries, the expansion of their trade, including the study of the problems of international commodity trade, the improvement of their transportation and communications facilities and the raising of the living standards of their peoples;
To promote Southeast Asian studies; and
To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organisations with similar aims and purposes, and explore all avenues for even closer cooperation among themselves.

kinda reminds me of the falklands war island grab in 1982 between UK and Argentina. The British claim sovereignty over the island off Argentina since 1800 the time of British empire. So when the Argentina unilaterally grabbed the island the British government had to respond.


according to wikipedia
China claimed diaoyu from 15th century ming dynasty records. The Japanese officially annexed it in 1895 and built a binito processing plant. Ownership of the island fell to the Americans in 1945 after surrender of Japan which they later reverted back to Japanese control in 1971.

The official ownership of the island is Japan right?

[Image: 220px-Senkaku-uotsuri.jpg]




Two Chinese patrol ships reach territorial waters of Diaoyu Islands
[Image: U142P5029T2D506391F24DT20120914074123.jpg]

Six ships of the China Marine Surveillance (CMS) have reached Chinese territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands 5:20 a.m. (Beijing Time) Friday morning , China Central Television reported.

source: sina.com

either they don't have a clue how big and hairy this can get or they really do want to tangle with PLA and Japanese Navies.

70 fishing boats from taiwan set sail for Senkaku to stake claim

source: NHK

Several dozen Taiwanese fishing boats have set sail for the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, to claim access to their fishing grounds.

More than 70 boats from a fishing cooperative in northeastern Taiwan set out Monday afternoon, hoisting banners claiming that the islands belong to Taiwan, and that Taiwan's sovereignty and fishing rights must be protected.

The cooperative is protesting Japan's purchase of 3 of the islands in the Senkaku chain from a private owner earlier this month. The cooperative says the waters surrounding the islands have long been a major Taiwanese fishing ground.

The cooperative says the boats will be joined by vessels from other cooperatives along the way to the islands.

The fleet plans to arrive at a point about 40 kilometers southwest of the islands by early Tuesday morning.

The boats are to circle near the islands after forming into groups of 5, with the aim of entering Japanese territorial waters.

More than 10 Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels will be on hand to monitor the fishing fleet's activities.

this comes in the heels of tensions with japan claims over Senkaku and now also Taiwan

oh man

source: asiaone

[Image: 20120925.181643_chinaaircraftcarrier_afp.jpg]

China's first aircraft carrier enters service

BEIJING - China's first aircraft carrier entered service Tuesday, the defence ministry in Beijing said, as the country expands its blue-water fleet at a time of increasing maritime tensions in the region.

President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao attended a "commissioning" ceremony for the 300-metre (990-foot) vessel, state media said.

The former Soviet ship that was bought from Ukraine was renamed Liaoning after the northeastern province that is home to China's main naval port city of Dalian, where it was refitted.

The commissioning makes China the last permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to have an aircraft carrier, and comes as Beijing's economic and political significance grows.

Numerous sea trials of the aircraft carrier - which was previously known by China only as "Number 16" - since August 2011 were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needed such a ship.

"The PLA's general armament department, the navy and all comrades participating in the carrier programme should make new contributions in promoting China's weaponry construction and safeguarding national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity," Wen said at the ceremony in Dalian.

"It will also be of great significance in enhancing national defence power and the country's comprehensive strength."

The US previously played down the importance of the aircraft carrier, saying that it had "limited" capability following its first sea trial in August 2011.

The Pentagon also said the vessel was the first step towards a future fleet of carriers expected to be built domestically in coming years.

Taiwan's intelligence chief said earlier this year that China has decided to build two aircraft carriers. However despite rumours that work has already begun, there is no evidence of construction of a domestically-built carrier.

There had been speculation on what the vessel was to be called, with retired Major General Luo Yuan suggesting naming it Diaoyu, after islands in the East China Sea claimed by China, which are also claimed by Japan where they are known as Senkaku.

Beijing on Sunday postponed a ceremony marking the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties with Tokyo.

Tensions have also risen this year with Vietnam and the Philippines over disputed islands in the South China Sea.

Beijing confirmed last year it was revamping the former Soviet ship - originally called the Varyag - and has repeatedly insisted the carrier poses no threat to its neighbours.

It says the ship will mainly be used for training and development purposes, but military commentators say China is developing strike aircraft and support vessels which would help the ship become fully operational.

Pictures have been published in the Chinese press showing domestically-built planes on the carrier's deck.

Leading generals have also said that developing strike aircraft for China's navy is a top priority for military bosses.

"Having the aircraft carrier enter the ranks will be of important significance in raising the overall fighting capacity of our nation's navy to a modern level," the defence ministry said.

It "will be effective in defending the interests of state sovereignty, security and development and advancing world peace and common development".

The ministry also said the vessel will increase China's capacity to defend itself and "cooperate on the high seas in dealing with non-traditional security threats".