The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

Don't worry, I think he's only half-serious! Well if Europe's worries are over does that mean markets should move up from now?

It would also mean I don't get a chance to buy anything for the rest of the year!

(29-06-2012, 02:36 PM)Jared Seah Wrote: KopiKat,

Exactly!!! It's great that someone else has a sense of humour too!

I used 1H2012 as my index 100 (and poke)

You shared different time scales as index 100

Imagine if someone takes March 2009 as index 100? STI is still in a bull market what!

I think the other thread on investing returns is getting a bit surreal. And a bit too technical.

Our investment returns has little to do with the STI index (unless you bought the ETF), or knowing the "average" returns of others.

It's what stocks we have picked and at what price we have paid for them.

Even if STI were to go to 2,900, "investors" who are holding on to cyclicals like NOL, Hyflux, Olam, etc; are still sucking their thumbs in their fetal position (unless they bought in 2009).

One more choo choo train up and I'll find a cave to hibernate

Hey,
i got NOL. And i am thinking of speculating in Wilmar & Noble. May even consider Olam. i am getting greedy again. (Don't forget to sing BEE GEE's song - "Don't forget to remember") If ever fiat monies become worth less and less, what do you think will worth more and more? (Trying to KK here. Pretending to be a Jim Roger imitation from Sinkapore)

European Stocks Surge After Leaders Ease Rules

By Tom Stoukas - Jun 29, 2012 6:08 PM GMT+0800

So it seems it is not windows dressing afterall.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29...rules.html

I heard that window dressing buying/selling have to happen a few days before the close of the reporting period so that the shares are on/off the books on the last day of the period. If that is true, there should not be anymore window dressing trades today. Not sure if this is correct.

OK, right now it's the first day of 2H 2012!

So unless there are violent objections, I shall proceed to close off this thread.

I'll leave it open till end of July 1, 2012, after which it will be closed.

Thanks!

(01-07-2012, 12:49 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: OK, right now it's the first day of 2H 2012!

So unless there are violent objections, I shall proceed to close off this thread.

I'll leave it open till end of July 1, 2012, after which it will be closed.

Thanks!

Perhaps we should let the thread starter have some last words before closing?

Years ago, I had already given up on forecasting.
So, instead of preempting the event that may or may not come, It is easier to take the fence.
And then react accordingly loh...

In my narrow view, there are three states of market,
1.Bull
2.Doldrums
3.Bear

Most investors are always anticipating the first and the last but most of the times, the 2nd state lasts the longest.
Sometimes, the 2nd state can last very very long and meanwhile, the cash in banks is losing its values.

The only way to get a reasonable return out of a market in doldrums is to get a good dividend yield from the portfolio and wait for the occasional special dividends, buyouts, spinoffs....

(01-07-2012, 11:44 AM)yeokiwi Wrote: Years ago, I had already given up on forecasting.
So, instead of preempting the event that may or may not come, It is easier to take the fence.
And then react accordingly loh...

In my narrow view, there are three states of market,
1.Bull
2.Doldrums
3.Bear

Most investors are always anticipating the first and the last but most of the times, the 2nd state lasts the longest.
Sometimes, the 2nd state can last very very long and meanwhile, the cash in banks is losing its values.

The only way to get a reasonable return out of a market in doldrums is to get a good dividend yield from the portfolio and wait for the occasional special dividends, buyouts, spinoffs....

Ha! Ha!
Patience is the name of the game.

My 2 cents worth, it's almost impossible to predict the direction of the market in the short term. In fact, the shorter the time span, the greater the difficulty. There are countless times when the price of the security falls soon after I've done my purchases. I've given up trying to play God. My take is to search for outstanding well-established businesses and buy a meaningful part of the business (depending on one's financial ability) at reasonable prices. They don't have to be dirt cheap. But must be reasonably priced. Afterall, outstanding businesses rarely come dirt cheap anyway. If the businesses are indeed that good, the price will eventually go up anyway.

IMHO I too believe the "end" is nearing. Sooner rather rather later I hope. I was schooled in Keynesian theory but have taken greater interest in Austrian of late. If only econs lessons were this fun when i was schooling... http://econstories.tv/2011/04/28/fight-o...sic-video/