The Hour Glass

(21-06-2012, 03:49 PM)guru Wrote: Just saw 41 lots on Sell at $1.27. Anyone interested to take it?

On 18-Jun, someone was selling in blocks of 100 lots throughout the whole day at $1.25. I did pick up some then, after having divested my tiny holdings previously.

I missed that one......

(21-06-2012, 11:45 PM)KopiKat Wrote:

(21-06-2012, 03:49 PM)guru Wrote: Just saw 41 lots on Sell at $1.27. Anyone interested to take it?

On 18-Jun, someone was selling in blocks of 100 lots throughout the whole day at $1.25. I did pick up some then, after having divested my tiny holdings previously.

(21-06-2012, 11:42 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: Cortina much better lah! The infighting will kill Hr Glass!

Have you ever take a look between THG & Cortina Financial Statement?

Swiss watchmaking in May 2012
Growth remains very strong

The excellent result for May 2011 was comfortably exceeded. Swiss watch exports increased by 16.2% last May to a level of 1.9 billion francs. This growth is in phase with the level at the beginning of the year and seems not to have suffered from a very unfavourable base effect, contrary to April. Over the first five months, watch exports were up 15.2% to 8.2 billion francs.

All main materials saw their value increase in relation to May 2011. Gold watches made the strongest contribution by far to the general upturn, while steel and bimetallic products lagged slightly behind. The total number of timepieces remained stable, held back by the category of other metals (mainly aluminium) which recorded a decline.

The different price segments presented a mixed picture in May: two of them lost ground slightly while the other two recorded a significant increase. Timepieces costing less than 200 francs (export price) and those in the 500-3,000 francs category fell by several points both in value and volume terms. Watches between 200 and 500 francs recorded an increase in volume terms of 14.4%. Above 3,000 francs, value increased by 28.7% and volumes by 17.9%. The difference between these two rates is due to significantly higher growth in the highest price segments.

The trends evident in previous months continued on the main markets for Swiss watch exports. Growth continued to slow in Hong Kong, while remaining at a high level, as was the case in China. This trend is likely to be confirmed in the months ahead, not least because base effects will be particularly unfavourable. The United States maintained its steady growth. France remained negative, while Italy confirmed its better situation. Japan meanwhile recorded the highest monthly increase for many years.

Source: FHS

I did a simple table where i tabulated the export to singapore(orange table using datas from fhs) as well as the exchange rate. Hope that someone can help me to complete the data for Jun-Dec 2010 and 2011

While Jan-May has not been very impressive for export to Singapore, growing by only 1%, there is a continuous stable uptrend from month. As compared to 2011, where there has been more fluctuation in numbers, it seemed like companies are slowly increasing their inventory level in preparation for the 2nd half of the year. In the word of economist, maybe they will call this cautiously optimistic.

Another notable fact is the exchange rate. It seemed like CHF has strengthened tremendously in 2011 with the peak in Aug 2011. Looking at the forex trend in 2012, it seemed like the watch companies will be able to enjoy better profit margin from Apr 2012 onwards. This should be able to impact the bottom line from Oct 2012 onwards assuming a 2x inventory turnover.

(22-06-2012, 06:28 PM)Pursuitofknowledge Wrote:

(21-06-2012, 11:42 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: Cortina much better lah! The infighting will kill Hr Glass!

Have you ever take a look between THG & Cortina Financial Statement?

One has 44% increase in net profit the other recorded 100% in net profit for FY 2011. You say which is better leh?

(25-06-2012, 11:12 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote: One has 44% increase in net profit the other recorded 100% in net profit for FY 2011. You say which is better leh?

In a roaring market, Cortina will stand to gain from higher growth rate in profit as compared to THG. This is because of the fact that it has a lower profit margin.

Anyway, given that Cortina has a longer inventory turnover day, expect the 1Q result to be slightly worse than THG as a result of the strengthening of CHF/SGD during 2nd half of 2011.

In times of recession, Cortina is not going to weather it as well as THG due to its lower profit margin once again.

(25-06-2012, 11:45 AM)shanrui_91 Wrote:

(25-06-2012, 11:12 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote: One has 44% increase in net profit the other recorded 100% in net profit for FY 2011. You say which is better leh?

In a roaring market, Cortina will stand to gain from higher growth rate in profit as compared to THG. This is because of the fact that it has a lower profit margin.

Anyway, given that Cortina has a longer inventory turnover day, expect the 1Q result to be slightly worse than THG as a result of the strengthening of CHF/SGD during 2nd half of 2011.

In times of recession, Cortina is not going to weather it as well as THG due to its lower profit margin once again.

I thought this was suppose to be a recession proof business? Wealthy people will still buy watches for collection and investments during a recession?

Im more worried about THG selling watches on CREDIT with all these interest free packages being doled out by them recently. What happens in the event the buyer who buys on credit runs away or defaults?

Maybe that explains the higher inventory turnover by THG?

(25-06-2012, 12:12 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(25-06-2012, 11:45 AM)shanrui_91 Wrote:

(25-06-2012, 11:12 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote: One has 44% increase in net profit the other recorded 100% in net profit for FY 2011. You say which is better leh?

In a roaring market, Cortina will stand to gain from higher growth rate in profit as compared to THG. This is because of the fact that it has a lower profit margin.

Anyway, given that Cortina has a longer inventory turnover day, expect the 1Q result to be slightly worse than THG as a result of the strengthening of CHF/SGD during 2nd half of 2011.

In times of recession, Cortina is not going to weather it as well as THG due to its lower profit margin once again.

I thought this was suppose to be a recession proof business? Wealthy people will still buy watches for collection and investments during a recession?

Im more worried about THG selling watches on CREDIT with all these interest free packages being doled out by them recently. What happens in the event the buyer who buys on credit runs away or defaults?

Maybe that explains the higher inventory turnover by THG?

I thought for watches on credit, it's always tie-up with credit card companies. The credit risk should be lying with the issuing banks. If the credit were extended by THG, it's not showing anywhere on the Balance Sheet as instalment receivables right?

(25-06-2012, 12:12 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:

(25-06-2012, 11:45 AM)shanrui_91 Wrote:

(25-06-2012, 11:12 AM)propertyinvestor Wrote: One has 44% increase in net profit the other recorded 100% in net profit for FY 2011. You say which is better leh?

In a roaring market, Cortina will stand to gain from higher growth rate in profit as compared to THG. This is because of the fact that it has a lower profit margin.

Anyway, given that Cortina has a longer inventory turnover day, expect the 1Q result to be slightly worse than THG as a result of the strengthening of CHF/SGD during 2nd half of 2011.

In times of recession, Cortina is not going to weather it as well as THG due to its lower profit margin once again.

I thought this was suppose to be a recession proof business? Wealthy people will still buy watches for collection and investments during a recession?

Im more worried about THG selling watches on CREDIT with all these interest free packages being doled out by them recently. What happens in the event the buyer who buys on credit runs away or defaults?

Maybe that explains the higher inventory turnover by THG?

These credit are bore by e bank and not THG. During recession people still buy watches but mainly 2nd hand due to fire sale. Cash is king during recession.