The Capricorn Effect and May Sell-off

(13-05-2012, 10:09 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(12-05-2012, 04:17 PM)orang Wrote:

(12-05-2012, 03:25 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Having said that, Peter Lynch is more focussed on 'Cyclicals', 'Turnarounds' & 'Hi-Growth' for his multi-baggers. That part, I don't have the kung-fu to follow..

One can always allocate say 5% to make life more interesting.

I get hell of a kick doing that

I do have 10%+ on a potential 'Turnaround' which looks like it'd started turning around and will likely be confirmed in their next quarterly report. Another 25% on another potential 'Turnaround' which continue to turn downwards. This one is still a profitable co. but I'm slowly paring down my stake as it's biz is linked to the state of our economy, which looks likely to be heading downwards. I have <2% on a potential 'Growth' stock but PE was closer to 30 and am unable to convince myself to pay a higher price for a great biz (blame on Charlie Munger if I do that) as I may be wrong on it's being a great biz!

Nope, not going to reveal the above cos.

Yes, I do get a kick out of it when I'm right! But, most times, I get kicked instead!

How interesting, getting a peek at how you manage your portfolio. The percentages speak volume.

Initially I was taken aback at the somewhat big numbers for your turnarounds probably because of different parameters. After all we are wired different so we have our individual circle of competence.

A turnaround would mean, for me, an economic cycle from profit to loss and a return to profitability. An example would be, say MDR which has turned in a profit or Centillion.

Your <2% for a potential growth is more at home to me. Mostly I split hairs drawing a line between prospect and potential. The differentiation is purely to allocate different percentages.

At the end of the day it is also a pretty good way to manage your risks as it takes a huge effort to categorise them. You know, after so many years in this game I cannot tell a lemon when I see one. The all look like plums to me

(13-05-2012, 07:49 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: IMO, there is a minor but critical difference between Cyclical and Turnaround.

In Cyclical, superior understanding of the company as well as the macro economic of its biz environment is necessary in order to catch the up-trend, and avoid the down-trend. In short "market timing" is critical

In Turnaround. insightful analysis of the company operation is required esp. on factors which make the company not doing well. If those factors changes for better, then oppurtunity arises. "Market timing" may not be critical here

In either cases, the essence of timing is still strong. One still need to analyse all possible aspects available - whether market/industry or company-specific - and make a meaningful decision. No doubt, on theory, it is simple to state that once the prospect of a company turns better, things will be good. But the problem lies in whether it is exactly turning for the better. And as such, luck and timing are still key proponents. If one bought HG metal right at the point of its re-structuring, thinking that it has turn for the better, he/she had to hold for another 2-3 years before its business actually improves. Worse still, just as time had become better, it issued a profit warning statement. As C. Munger had stated, a turnaround company always normally does not turnaround.

Of course saying that, I prefer turnaround event because there is a strong inclination for fundamental analysis and the upside gain is always attractive. However, an investor has to again make sure there is an adequate margin of safety before making the call.

(13-05-2012, 02:40 PM)KopiKat Wrote: My mental image, from your nick and posts - the kung-fu grandmaster,

[Image: 180px-PoolOfTears.PNG]

What did u have for lunch today? U must have drunk too much kopi to have that kind of mental image.

BTW several yrs ago at the old forum, you showed your kung fu at using the web query function in Excel to automatically retrieve SGX stock quotes from it's web pages directly into Excel on real-time basis. I carefully followed your instructions (including the workaround the web query bug) and was able to use it to calculate comparative yields across a range of stocks real-time with just 1 click. Until SGX reworked its website about couple years ago and introduced Java routines to fetch quotes which broke the web query access. Wonder if you have kung fu around this issue yet.

(13-05-2012, 10:13 PM)swakoo Wrote: BTW several yrs ago at the old forum, you showed your kung fu at using the web query function in Excel to automatically retrieve SGX stock quotes from it's web pages directly into Excel on real-time basis. I carefully followed your instructions (including the workaround the web query bug) and was able to use it to calculate comparative yields across a range of stocks real-time with just 1 click. Until SGX reworked its website about couple years ago and introduced Java routines to fetch quotes which broke the web query access. Wonder if you have kung fu around this issue yet.

Wah.. your kung-fu very hi. You even know who I was!

Now, I used a more manual method as I have not been able to find a work-around (too busy / lazy to try). From my watch-lists in POEMS, I block copy and paste (each watch list individually) into one of my worksheet (over-writing the old data) every time I need to refresh my data. The other worksheets still uses VLOOKUP to retrieve it for computations.

Every once in a while, I have to delete the 'POEMS' worksheet as the data that's supposed to be over-written seem to be still there (I think the graphical symbols) and bloats up my file size and will reach a point where my access is very slow. But, doing this will mess up my VLOOKUP formulas as the #POEMS becomes an error (#REF) the moment I delete the POEMS worksheet. I used the 'Search and Replace' function to auto replace the #REF to #POEMS again for each worksheet, after I re-create a new POEMS worksheet and copy-n-paste a new set of data.

Hee.. I think I may succeeded to create total confusion..

PS. The old one-key method still works for some sites eg. Individual Stock quotes for Bloomberg (I do monitor a couple of US stocks)

(13-05-2012, 10:45 PM)KopiKat Wrote: Hee.. I think I may succeeded to create total confusion..

Yes, master - you lost me. Anything much more than 1 click also I'm too lazy. Thanks anyway.

(13-05-2012, 11:09 PM)swakoo Wrote: Anything much more than 1 click also I'm too lazy. Thanks anyway.

The old method was quite tedious to set up as you also need to do it for every alphabetical list from SGX (or those with the starting alphabets of your stocks). My current method is quite simple to follow. Just refer to this paragraph (modified a bit),

From my watch-lists in POEMS, I block copy and paste (each watch list individually) into the data worksheet (over-writing the old data) every time I need to refresh my data. The other worksheets still uses VLOOKUP to retrieve it for computations.

Only when your file gets bloated thro' repeated copy-n-paste, then refer to the next paragraph in the previous post to do house cleaning.

BTW, were you using the same nick in the old forum (sorry, I don't remember any tortoise). The only buddy who may possibly remember me in a positive manner was mxxx.

OK thanks, now i think i know what your manual workaround entails. I'm slow but i get there eventually...

Suffice to say u and i were toying around with the FCOT predecessor's shorties at the cna forum last time. And i had labelled your kung fu techniques last time as yield arbitrage... shh

(14-05-2012, 12:00 AM)swakoo Wrote: Suffice to say u and i were toying around with the FCOT predecessor's shorties at the cna forum last time. And i had labelled your kung fu techniques last time as yield arbitrage... shh

Hey! Glad to see you again!
Hee.. we had our fun at both forums, especially the CNA one where the FA kung-fu is at a much lower level. We must have made a lot of enemies...Ya, shh..

Oh yes.. I like the term 'Yield Arbitrage' which you'd coined (can surely use it in future after we'd made/lost too much $$ to create seminars + free book to make our Millions!). It'd morphed and expanded to include the 'safer' Stalwarts after I got burnt in many of my REITs during the last crisis. It's probably beyond recognition now - what I'd described in this thread and the SPH thread. I use the 'morphed' approach during Dividend seasons where there's almost certainty to see the Stalwarts behaving in a bond-like manner (prices going up towards xd period) and to try to profit from it. Off-season, I'd be back to the original Yield Arbitrage method, waiting patiently to make some Kopi-$$. I do have my Yield Pairs (sometimes Triplets) eg. 6% : SPH-SingPost ; 5% : SIAEC-STE. The no. of candidates for this 'fun' and hopefully profitable activity is however rather limited (am always searching for new candidates).

Quote:BTW several yrs ago at the old forum, you showed your kung fu at using the web query function in Excel to automatically retrieve SGX stock quotes from it's web pages directly into Excel on real-time basis. I carefully followed your instructions (including the workaround the web query bug) and was able to use it to calculate comparative yields across a range of stocks real-time with just 1 click. Until SGX reworked its website about couple years ago and introduced Java routines to fetch quotes which broke the web query access. Wonder if you have kung fu around this issue yet.

If the goal is to retrieve price quotes and have them on Excel sheets, and you don't mind a lag of 15 to 30 minutes, you can use the Yahoo! Delayed Stock Quotes Template published by The Ben Graham Centre of Value Investing at Richard Ivey School of Business (University of Western Ontario).

It is available at this link:
http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resourc...tabase.htm

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Addendum:
This works for all tickers quoted on Yahoo! Finance.

(14-05-2012, 01:07 AM)D123 Wrote: If the goal is to retrieve price quotes and have them on Excel sheets, and you don't mind a lag of 15 to 30 minutes, you can use the Yahoo! Delayed Stock Quotes Template published by The Ben Graham Centre of Value Investing at Richard Ivey School of Business (University of Western Ontario).

Yes, that is the goal, preferably in real-time and delayed is next best. Will take a look and compare with KopiKat's semi-auto real-time workaround. Thanks for bringing to attention!

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(14-05-2012, 12:23 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Oh yes.. I like the term 'Yield Arbitrage' which you'd coined (can surely use it in future after we'd made/lost too much $$ to create seminars + free book to make our Millions!). It'd morphed and expanded to include the 'safer' Stalwarts after I got burnt in many of my REITs during the last crisis. It's probably beyond recognition now - what I'd described in this thread and the SPH thread. I use the 'morphed' approach during Dividend seasons where there's almost certainty to see the Stalwarts behaving in a bond-like manner (prices going up towards xd period) and to try to profit from it. Off-season, I'd be back to the original Yield Arbitrage method, waiting patiently to make some Kopi-$$. I do have my Yield Pairs (sometimes Triplets) eg. 6% : SPH-SingPost ; 5% : SIAEC-STE. The no. of candidates for this 'fun' and hopefully profitable activity is however rather limited (am always searching for new candidates).

Wow, i see u have really expanded your kung fu techniques! In addition to yield arbitrage, there is now the cd/xd contra and the yield pairs (undoubtedly inspired by the currency pairs the RMs in pte banking like to peddle). At another post, noticed u also have the mother share/ renounce-able rights arbitrage. You have a very creative mind and I think u should be able to publish a book soon!