Singapore Post

(30-04-2012, 10:06 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(30-04-2012, 09:54 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

CityFarmer Wrote:I was expecting SingPost to issue another bond to redeem the S$300 million 10-year bond due next year, but they did it with a PERPS instead.

Let's see if you are right. For me, reading what the aggressive new CEO is saying in their Press Release makes me nervous that he's likely going to use up all the cash for some massive ego boosting acquisitions...

I share the similar concern. I am looking at them like a hawk looking at its prey.

I'm vested, so I feel like I'm the prey. If I were a rabbit, I'd be staying close to my hutch or hole in the ground. Any aggressive swoop by the hawk, I'd quickly dive for cover. To be kia-su, I may even run for cover first, even before the hawk could blink it's eye - can always come out to play again when it's safer.. Hee..

(30-04-2012, 10:25 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

(30-04-2012, 10:06 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(30-04-2012, 09:54 AM)KopiKat Wrote:

CityFarmer Wrote:I was expecting SingPost to issue another bond to redeem the S$300 million 10-year bond due next year, but they did it with a PERPS instead.

Let's see if you are right. For me, reading what the aggressive new CEO is saying in their Press Release makes me nervous that he's likely going to use up all the cash for some massive ego boosting acquisitions...

I share the similar concern. I am looking at them like a hawk looking at its prey.

I'm vested, so I feel like I'm the prey. If I were a rabbit, I'd be staying close to my hutch or hole in the ground. Any aggressive swoop by the hawk, I'd quickly dive for cover. To be kia-su, I may even run for cover first, even before the hawk could blink it's eye - can always come out to play again when it's safer.. Hee..

ha..ha.. You are right. I should rephase it as "I am looking at them like an alerted rabbit looking at the hawk nearby". It is much more appropiate. I learn new stuff today

BTW, i am vested too

The postal business is going downhill....I am watching at it while breaking out cold sweats
This year will be a defining year for SingPost and its shareholders.

I feel that they need to do something big and fast else investors will reassess their risks in holding on to this declining giant.

Vested and in cold sweat

(30-04-2012, 12:04 PM)camelking Wrote: The postal business is going downhill....I am watching at it while breaking out cold sweats
This year will be a defining year for SingPost and its shareholders.

I feel that they need to do something big and fast else investors will reassess their risks in holding on to this declining giant.

Vested and in cold sweat

IMO, After looking into the more recent FR, it does not indicate to me that the beginning of downhill, at least not for postal biz.

Postal revenue is more and less the same between FY2011 and FY2012, but with a -6% drop in operating profit and -2.5% pct point in operating profit margin.

What does it indicate? it shows biz is stable, but operating expense increase. Look further into the expense, top 3 culprits are Depreciation cost(up 18%), Labour cost (up 12%) and Admin (up 9%)

Depreciation expense is due to one-off item, after normalization, it stay the same as last year.

Labour expense is due to recent tighter labour market. Delivery of mail is labour intensive task. SingPost have to increase the productivity with whatever innovation possible.

Admin expense is due to recent additional expenses in IT and technogies into corporate processes. IMO, it is a sensible move to increase productivity, but do it right is the key. Let see whether SingPost will do it right.

Singpost is caught in the midst of new internet revolution. Unfortunately, it has little pricing power notwithstanding its local monopoly status.

Cashflow is down with no guarantee that new investments will pay off. While dividend is maintained, it will be a matter of time when they may be cut unless growth resumes.

Caveat Emptor.

(04-05-2012, 11:43 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(30-04-2012, 12:04 PM)camelking Wrote: The postal business is going downhill....I am watching at it while breaking out cold sweats
This year will be a defining year for SingPost and its shareholders.

I feel that they need to do something big and fast else investors will reassess their risks in holding on to this declining giant.

Vested and in cold sweat

IMO, After looking into the more recent FR, it does not indicate to me that the beginning of downhill, at least not for postal biz.

Postal revenue is more and less the same between FY2011 and FY2012, but with a -6% drop in operating profit and -2.5% pct point in operating profit margin.

What does it indicate? it shows biz is stable, but operating expense increase. Look further into the expense, top 3 culprits are Depreciation cost(up 18%), Labour cost (up 12%) and Admin (up 9%)

Depreciation expense is due to one-off item, after normalization, it stay the same as last year.

Labour expense is due to recent tighter labour market. Delivery of mail is labour intensive task. SingPost have to increase the productivity with whatever innovation possible.

Admin expense is due to recent additional expenses in IT and technogies into corporate processes. IMO, it is a sensible move to increase productivity, but do it right is the key. Let see whether SingPost will do it right.

With current available financial figures, SingPost are

Paid ~120 Mils yearly now, with its FCF of 150 Mils in FY2011/2012. Mail biz alone generates operation profit of ~130-140 Mils yearly, at least till FY2011/2012 without sign of downhill yet.

Rental serve as a cushion, and generating yearly income of ~42 Mils consistently.

IMO, The key for future growth is on Retail and Logistic biz. Both are commodity biz, the key to win is to become low cost and quality service producer. My wish is on top of growth, sufficient effort should also be focus on driving cost down while continued service excellence.

(04-05-2012, 01:39 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Singpost is caught in the midst of new internet revolution. Unfortunately, it has little pricing power notwithstanding its local monopoly status.

Cashflow is down with no guarantee that new investments will pay off. While dividend is maintained, it will be a matter of time when they may be cut unless growth resumes.

Caveat Emptor.

(04-05-2012, 03:43 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: With current available financial figures, SingPost are

Paid ~120 Mils yearly now, with its FCF of 150 Mils in FY2011/2012. Mail biz alone generates operation profit of ~130-140 Mils yearly, at least till FY2011/2012 without sign of downhill yet.

Rental serve as a cushion, and generating yearly income of ~42 Mils consistently.

IMO, The key for future growth is on Retail and Logistic biz. Both are commodity biz, the key to win is to become low cost and quality service producer. My wish is on top of growth, sufficient effort should also be focus on driving cost down while continued service excellence.

(04-05-2012, 01:39 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Singpost is caught in the midst of new internet revolution. Unfortunately, it has little pricing power notwithstanding its local monopoly status.

Cashflow is down with no guarantee that new investments will pay off. While dividend is maintained, it will be a matter of time when they may be cut unless growth resumes.

Caveat Emptor.

The share price will plunge once the difference between FCF and div payout gets nearer....don't need to wait till they cut the dividend.
Market is much more efficient than we thought.
In addition, they need to pay coupons on the perp issue this year...
So, this year they need to use the massive warchest to do something..and do it fast and RIGHT.
But how much does the german CEO knows about the industry in this part of asia (assuming that they are going for acquisition in this part of the world)?
A Defining Year for Singpost

Perhaps can ask postman to deliver every other day? Where everyday got letters one?

I 'cured' my insomia problem by halving my tiny stake on Thu when what I saw as abnormal volume and price increase at around 5pm spurred me into action. It finally closed +2.5ct for the day, which is exactly the same as the latest declared div. I consoled myself (am still a die-hard SingPost fan) that I was only taking my div 1st..

I am just realize that the new Group CEO Dr Wolfgang Baier is only 38 years old

I am no prejudice on age, but a bit surprise. He must be real good to convince the board of directors who are close to 2x his age on average

(vested)