Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund

I met them last year. After I attended the briefing, quickly sold my shares...

(20-03-2012, 03:45 PM)Contrarian Wrote: I met them last year. After I attended the briefing, quickly sold my shares...

I met the Management back in 2005. Same result, also immediately sold after that meeting.

There are 2 major issues for MIIF at the moment -

1) Resolving the tax issues in TBC

2) The potential toll rate cut in HNE. If toll rate is cut and no compensation is paid, it will be really negative for MIIF as cash-flow will decline despite higher debt amortization in the years to come.

(Not Vested)

Recently Heng chinag meng bought into MIIF at 60cents!

(20-03-2012, 03:53 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(20-03-2012, 03:45 PM)Contrarian Wrote: I met them last year. After I attended the briefing, quickly sold my shares...

I met the Management back in 2005. Same result, also immediately sold after that meeting.

Same trigger, same action, but different outcome as different time frame.

2005 : Assets mainly in Europe and Australia, mostly held thro' Macquarie-run funds. Highly geared, that's why badly hit in the subsequent financial crisis. back then, I didn't dare to hold on to MIIF for long term, at most, trade before and during cd period.

2011 : Assets mainly in China and Taiwan. Cash rich but assets are >50% geared. I was collecting quite a lot as the yield was too attractive to resist (I thought I knew the risks). Quite an experience to see it drop below 50ct but equally surprised to see it rebound back to ~60ct. With 2 DPUs collected (total 5.5ct), easily 15%-20% returns (more if you managed to buy below 50ct).

So, ya, right decision in 2005 as you'd have saved yourself from a big loss. But, for 2011, at this point in time, still not considered that good a decision.

Nick Wrote:There are 2 major issues for MIIF at the moment -

1) Resolving the tax issues in TBC

2) The potential toll rate cut in HNE. If toll rate is cut and no compensation is paid, it will be really negative for MIIF as cash-flow will decline despite higher debt amortization in the years to come.

For me, the main issue is that TBC debt repayment will be rather substantial from 2014 ($100M+ per year) onwards and I don't have any idea how it'll affect their DPU payout. I'd posted before that I planned to exit before 2014..

(20-03-2012, 04:28 PM)KopiKat Wrote:

(20-03-2012, 03:53 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(20-03-2012, 03:45 PM)Contrarian Wrote: I met them last year. After I attended the briefing, quickly sold my shares...

I met the Management back in 2005. Same result, also immediately sold after that meeting.

Same trigger, same action, but different outcome as different time frame.

2005 : Assets mainly in Europe and Australia, mostly held thro' Macquarie-run funds. Highly geared, that's why badly hit in the subsequent financial crisis. back then, I didn't dare to hold on to MIIF for long term, at most, trade before and during cd period.

2011 : Assets mainly in China and Taiwan. Cash rich but assets are >50% geared. I was collecting quite a lot as the yield was too attractive to resist (I thought I knew the risks). Quite an experience to see it drop below 50ct but equally surprised to see it rebound back to ~60ct. With 2 DPUs collected (total 5.5ct), easily 15%-20% returns (more if you managed to buy below 50ct).

So, ya, right decision in 2005 as you'd have saved yourself from a big loss. But, for 2011, at this point in time, still not considered that good a decision.

Nick Wrote:There are 2 major issues for MIIF at the moment -

1) Resolving the tax issues in TBC

2) The potential toll rate cut in HNE. If toll rate is cut and no compensation is paid, it will be really negative for MIIF as cash-flow will decline despite higher debt amortization in the years to come.

For me, the main issue is that TBC debt repayment will be rather substantial from 2014 ($100M+ per year) onwards and I don't have any idea how it'll affect their DPU payout. I'd posted before that I planned to exit before 2014..

I guess they will refinance it again ? You are right about the under-lying leverage. One of the reason why I steered clear from MIIF and Cityspring despite the resilience of the operating business. Unfortunately, there aren't many infrastructure yield stocks listed here (4 i think) so the choices are limited.

http://info.sgx.com/listprosp.nsf/6c6be9...6003268bf/$FILE/MIIF%20-%20AR%202011.pdf [MIIF 2011 AR]

(20-03-2012, 04:26 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote: Recently Heng chinag meng bought into MIIF at 60cents!

He is an MP, and a ex-HR practitioner.

I think our investors here are more skilful.

A lot of the board members, got very little investment sense, I got to say.

most likely they will refinance. but from alot of people here especially Contrarian the problem perhaps is the integrity of the management to work towards the long term good of the shareholders.

i agree the situation is different from 2005, but the management is the same and what we are afraid of is that a leopard cannot change its spot.

they will say the debt is non recourse.

(20-03-2012, 09:07 PM)Drizzt Wrote: most likely they will refinance. but from alot of people here especially Contrarian the problem perhaps is the integrity of the management to work towards the long term good of the shareholders.

i agree the situation is different from 2005, but the management is the same and what we are afraid of is that a leopard cannot change its spot.

they will say the debt is non recourse.

That's their lesson learnt from the last financial crisis. I believe they were forced to sell assets at fire-sale price due to their high gearing?

Although it's non-recourse now, the high gearing at all their assets' biz also means it'll affect their ability to pay the current level of DPU if for whatever reasons, they're unable to refinance their debts.

So, ya, I understand what all of you are saying about the risks involved. That's why I've already sold the majority of my original holdings. What's left is <5% of my portfolio and for the time being, not causing me to lose any sleep. Anyway, it's already in my plan not to hold for long term, just a matter of when to sell. If I stopped posting here, that means I've sold everything!

(20-03-2012, 09:25 PM)KopiKat Wrote:

(20-03-2012, 09:07 PM)Drizzt Wrote: most likely they will refinance. but from alot of people here especially Contrarian the problem perhaps is the integrity of the management to work towards the long term good of the shareholders.

i agree the situation is different from 2005, but the management is the same and what we are afraid of is that a leopard cannot change its spot.

they will say the debt is non recourse.

That's their lesson learnt from the last financial crisis. I believe they were forced to sell assets at fire-sale price due to their high gearing?

Although it's non-recourse now, the high gearing at all their assets' biz also means it'll affect their ability to pay the current level of DPU if for whatever reasons, they're unable to refinance their debts.

So, ya, I understand what all of you are saying about the risks involved. That's why I've already sold the majority of my original holdings. What's left is <5% of my portfolio and for the time being, not causing me to lose any sleep. Anyway, it's already in my plan not to hold for long term, just a matter of when to sell. If I stopped posting here, that means I've sold everything!

do inform us what u got invested instead.