AIMS AMP Industrial REIT

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...2ZHNlZwSmc

scroll to Aims Amp REIt. your total return would still be down 18% but the dividend cushion alot of the draw down.

(08-03-2012, 10:22 PM)Drizzt Wrote: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...2ZHNlZwSmc

scroll to Aims Amp REIt. your total return would still be down 18% but the dividend cushion alot of the draw down.

Nice Tables!

But, as mentioned in an earlier post, IPO Price was $1.20. See from this SGX Annc

OFFERING (THE “OFFERING”) IN RESPECT OF 247,330,000 UNITS (“UNITS”) REPRESENTING UNDIVIDED INTERESTS IN MACARTHURCOOK INDUSTRIAL REIT (“MI-REIT”)
FOR SUBSCRIPTION AT THE OFFERING PRICE OF S$1.20 PER UNIT COMPRISING:-
I. AN INTERNATIONAL PLACEMENT OF 239,830,000 UNITS TO INVESTORS, INCLUDING INSTITUTIONAL AND OTHER INVESTORS IN SINGAPORE (“PLACEMENT”); AND
II. AN OFFERING OF 7,500,000 UNITS TO THE PUBLIC IN SINGAPORE (“PUBLIC OFFER”)

Can change your table to $1.20 to see what's the total returns?

(08-03-2012, 08:52 PM)Nick Wrote: Curious - if you bought at IPO, subscribed for the 2 rights issue and collected the dividends, will you still be deep in red ?

(Not Vested)

Confirmed in the red. I'm approximately 20% down (exc dividends) and that was after I did quite a massive average down before the 5-for-1 consolidation. Factoring in the distributions received, I'm still about 8% down. I estimate that if I have done nothing ie. did not average down, I would probably be more than 8% down. (let me see if I can work it out tomorrow)

Changed. Total gains loss becomes -27%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...2ZHNlZwSmc

(09-03-2012, 07:42 AM)Drizzt Wrote: Changed. Total gains loss becomes -27%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...2ZHNlZwSmc

Thanks!

I was inspired by your tables to look at my own losses, which included buying more to average down over the years + some trading. My scorecard,

1) P/L (Include Gains from Selling off Rights) = -45.4%
2) P/L (Include Dividends) = -20.15%
3) P/L (Include Trading Gains/Losses) = -12.96%

Still a huge loss but I have not decided to do a Cut Loss as today, AIMSAMP is a lot better managed than the MI-REIT of the past. Let's hope I'm not making this statement due to 'falling in love' with my stock or being 'emotionally unable to take the pain of cutting losses' but rather, due to doing just about enough 'homework'.

So far my experience with REITs and Trusts is that it is always overpriced at IPO.
It's Probably Overpriced holds mostly.


So far, the only counter on my monitor that seems to defy is Mapletree Commercial Trust. It did touch 80 cts, but it came back pretty quick to near it's IPO price. (Not Vested).

(09-03-2012, 11:38 AM)momoeagle Wrote: So far my experience with REITs and Trusts is that it is always overpriced at IPO.
It's Probably Overpriced holds mostly.

So far, the only counter on my monitor that seems to defy is Mapletree Commercial Trust. It did touch 80 cts, but it came back pretty quick to near it's IPO price. (Not Vested).

Trust - agree.
REITs - Depends. Not all REITs are overpriced at IPO.

Suntec IPO $1.00 now $1.25. 25% up
Frasers CT IPO $1.03 now $1.52 47% up
CDL HTrust IPO $0.83 now $1.72 66% up
MLT IPO $0.68 now $0.905 33% up
PLife IPO $1.28 now $1.79 39% up

Even the 3 recent REITS - MCT, MIT and CLT are all positives and above their IPO price.

So dun over generalise.

(09-03-2012, 01:58 PM)lonewolf Wrote:

(09-03-2012, 11:38 AM)momoeagle Wrote: So far my experience with REITs and Trusts is that it is always overpriced at IPO.
It's Probably Overpriced holds mostly.

So far, the only counter on my monitor that seems to defy is Mapletree Commercial Trust. It did touch 80 cts, but it came back pretty quick to near it's IPO price. (Not Vested).

Trust - agree.
REITs - Depends. Not all REITs are overpriced at IPO.

Suntec IPO $1.00 now $1.25. 25% up
Frasers CT IPO $1.03 now $1.52 47% up
CDL HTrust IPO $0.83 now $1.72 66% up
MLT IPO $0.68 now $0.905 33% up
PLife IPO $1.28 now $1.79 39% up

Even the 3 recent REITS - MCT, MIT and CLT are all positives and above their IPO price.

So dun over generalise.

Interestingly, the REITs in bold never raised rights issue before...hmm

(09-03-2012, 08:38 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Still a huge loss but I have not decided to do a Cut Loss as today, AIMSAMP is a lot better managed than the MI-REIT of the past. Let's hope I'm not making this statement due to 'falling in love' with my stock or being 'emotionally unable to take the pain of cutting losses' but rather, due to doing just about enough 'homework'.

When I decided to do an average down on AIMS, I did not do it out of love or desperation. In fact, I dun like Geroge and the way he trampled all over us to take control of MI-REIT. However, I cannot deny that AIMS is now in a better shape and some of the things it did was for the better. And best of it, it was paying regular distributions.

So I exit out of Cambridge (another one of those also-run industrial REIT) and dumped the proceeds to AIMS. I estimate that within 2 yrs, I will be able to break even from my investment in AIMS.

So the morale of the lesson for me is that doing nothing and sitting on yr butt will not turn the investment around. You need to do something about it. Either cut your loss or inject more money into it. That was what AK71 did (and of cos he did it on a massive scale to average down ) and how he turn many of his loss positions to gains. When you buy more, you get more distributions and your loss can become gains.

---

(09-03-2012, 02:00 PM)Nick Wrote: Interestingly, the REITs in bold never raised rights issue before...hmm

Not true. CDL HTrust did a PO at an insane price of $2.45 in Jul 07. Still even subscribing to that will probably still put yr in a positive position.

Suntec, FCT and PLife has done a number of placement exercise especially Suntec. So to preempt yr suggestion of a correlation between REITs who have done rights issues vs capital gains, I dun think its so straightforward as that. But I think this issue has been discussed to the death and I have no desire to continue with the debate since its seems to always degenerate to a Pro-REITs vs Anti-REIT camps.

(09-03-2012, 02:05 PM)lonewolf Wrote: When I decided to do an average down on AIMS, I did not do it out of love or desperation. In fact, I dun like Geroge and the way he trampled all over us to take control of MI-REIT. However, I cannot deny that AIMS is now in a better shape and some of the things it did was for the better. And best of it, it was paying regular distributions.

So I exit out of Cambridge (another one of those also-run industrial REIT) and dumped the proceeds to AIMS. I estimate that within 2 yrs, I will be able to break even from my investment in AIMS.

So the morale of the lesson for me is that doing nothing and sitting on yr butt will not turn the investment around. You need to do something about it. Either cut your loss or inject more money into it. That was what AK71 did (and of cos he did it on a massive scale to average down ) and how he turn many of his loss positions to gains. When you buy more, you get more distributions and your loss can become gains.

Fully agree!

In my case, I had 3 REITs under duress, AIMS (MI-REIT), Cambridge & FCOT (Allco). In each case, I tried my best to be rational and objective. For AIMS and FCOT, if not for the new controlling shareholder cum REIT manager, I'd have most likely cut my losses. I ranked them according to my own assessment as follows,

1) FCOT - I liked what F&N was doing to clean up the mess. Accordingly, I put in the most new money here and today, I'm no longer in the red. I plan to put in more $$ here at the right price.

2) Cambridge - With CWT out of the picture (I was wary of them as they triggered the initial sell-down even before the crisis and subsequently even sold off their stake as REIT Mgr). I think they're a lot stronger today with NAB (National Australia Bank) as a stake holder. Despite not having put in a lot of new money, I'm also out of the red here.

3) AIMS - I put in the least new money here as I continue to be wary of AIMS and AMP after I read their SGX Annc (which I felt was more in their interest) of expanding agressively the AUM. I put in the least new money here and I continue to be in the red. I'm still monitoring their intention closely before I decide to put in more new money.