The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

Italian 10 years bond yield has fallen below 5% at 4.96. The yield difference compared to Spain is only 0.10% now

(01-03-2012, 09:52 PM)shanrui_91 Wrote: Italian 10 years bond yield has fallen below 5% at 4.96. The yield difference compared to Spain is only 0.10% now

Draghi's Big Bertha??

Mr. Draghi said the impact of the ECB’s three-year loan allocated in late December was underestimated at first “because many people expected the ECB to expand its government bond purchases, the famous ‘bazooka.’

“Maybe I should have called the tender ‘Big Bertha’ when I announced it, then everyone would have listened.”

I have a passing thought on the next crash, maybe 2-3 years down the road.. I am thinking more of a liquidity crunch in Asia as most of the hot money flowing back to Europe or US due to recovery from their debt crisis. This leads to increase in interest rates Asia wide to try attract back the hot money, but causing business costs and return on investments in Asia to decline due to higher borrowing. This is coupled with inflation (rapid urbanization with the increasing labour costs and higher costs of living), higher fuel costs (to ship exports to US, Europe) and lead to fall in export volumes and reduction of China trade balance. Unless China is able to become self-sustaining and continue to support the surrounding economies like Indonesia & Australia, like how US supports Mexico and South America and Western Europe supports Eastern Europe, we will collapse together with China.

I think that the argument that the costs in US and Europe will always be high is flawed. In my view, it all depends on how well they organize themselves non-financially (like more infrastructure spending in US to support employment and removal of stupid environmental regulations that adds significant cost to support their pride to be a leader) and optimize (if you been to US you will realize that only the big cities are filthy rich but there are alot of empty land, resources that can be exploited) more opportunities, costs or profitability need not suffer.

Just want to get it out of my head.

Spain planning to breach EU budget targets, warns prime minister Mariano Rajoy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finan...Rajoy.html

MAULDIN: Europe Is Now Creating Big Unintended Consequences That Will Carry Disastrous Outcomes
http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-e...mes-2012-3



DAVID STOCKMAN: You'd Be A Fool To Hold Anything But Cash Now
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-sto...now-2012-3



Greek default looms as voluntary debt deal looks set to fail
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finan...-fail.html

russian just got a new "OLD" president. Mr Putin...

Next, Obama remains as USA president....so cannot wack iran...

Then, Najid remains as malaysia's PM...

it's Bulls run all the way!!

China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424..._pageone_0


China Developers Expect Property Prices to Fall
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424..._pageone_3


In China, Sobering Signs of Slower Growth
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/busine...&seid=auto

STI went above 2950 again.....interesting....let's see.....

(07-02-2012, 05:03 PM)PeterSoh Wrote:

(06-02-2012, 10:44 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: If STI hits above 2950 and stay above there, the next target might be 3150.

http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html

Soooo, STI for today is 2957.78, with a 17.68 (0.6%) increase. Lets hope the charts are right

a bit of sidetrack.....was having fun monitoring to see how accurate astrology is on the stock market......

3月4日——金星冲土星 影 响力前后三天。金融市场方面也会受到影响力波及，产生回落，短线投资者可 以在前半周逢高出货。

3月5日——金星进入金牛座 从社会角度而言，金星回归金牛座让此前一度低迷的金融市场重获新机，呈现震荡上扬走势。

3月14日——金星木星合相及金木火冥大三角：影响力前后四天 从社会角度而言，这是实实在在的桃花季节，让人们对爱情的渴望更为强烈。金融方面则会呈单边上涨之态，人们的投资欲望也极为强烈。


3月24日——太阳天王星合相 影 响力前后四天 从社会角度而言，在娱乐、投资领域都可能发生出人意表的事情，股票金融市场在此期间也会呈震荡走势，可能伴有短线下调。另外，也有爆发大规模自然灾害或是与孩子相关的突发事件。

3月29日——太阳与冥王星相刑 影 响力前后三天 另外与娱乐、投资、幼儿相关领域也可能会有恶性事件发生。

in short we should see bull till last 10 days of march then correction.....end march or early apr, we might have some bad news.....

just for fun...believe it or not....^^let's see if this astrologer is good....

Germany's monetary doyen slams ECB's 'shocking' balance sheet
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...sheet.html


Legal skull-duggery in Greece may doom Portugal
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...tugal.html