VICOM

(13-02-2012, 08:38 PM)shanrui_91 Wrote: Thus, Warren Buffett never split his Berkshire Hathaway

Berkshire's Class B shares were first issued in 1996 with 1/30th of the rights (and 1/200th of voting rights) of the Class A shares. These Class B shares were split in 2010 50-for-1.

(13-02-2012, 08:56 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(12-02-2012, 12:54 PM)donmihaihai Wrote:

(12-02-2012, 12:20 PM)Bibi Wrote: 2-2.50 for vicom might happen if a deep recession happens or the company split shares

I don't buy when price is not right!

Look further back than just 2008-2009. They were cheaper when being unknown and doing not as well.

Yes yes, what goes up will come down. Its just a matter of time.

i have took notice of VICOM since late 2009 when it was doing at ~2bucks. My FA shown that it was a cash cow (good margins, debt free, stable biz, competitive moat and low payout ratio). However, my margin of safety rule demanded ~ a <1.50 buying price...

I have since been TGH-ed (The Great Humilator) by the Market gao gao..
I am still holding out for a considerable lower entry price now..maybe when the day i cant resist no more, VICOM may start falling..

(13-02-2012, 08:56 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(12-02-2012, 12:54 PM)donmihaihai Wrote:

(12-02-2012, 12:20 PM)Bibi Wrote: 2-2.50 for vicom might happen if a deep recession happens or the company split shares

I don't buy when price is not right!

Look further back than just 2008-2009. They were cheaper when being unknown and doing not as well.

Yes yes, what goes up will come down. Its just a matter of time.

Yes, yes, i agree totally. But when the time to buy is also the time to think carefully whether history will repeat more or less again into the future. Sometimes, i misjudge or rather i lost my guts. Then when history repeats more or less for a particular stock , i realized how much i would have made.
Example:-
Vicom @ $2.5 and SPH@$2.5 and NOL@$1.0 in a severe Bear markets and you have more than enough bullets, will you buy all three counters?
For me, i have never bought Vicom because i never like very low liquidity stock after having an experience of buying APB.

i also thought "what went up will go down" when vicom was trading below a dollar.
i waited and waited and couldn't resist anymore and went in finally at 2.80 and just sold for 4 flat last friday. hmm..maybe sometime what went up might never go down again..

(13-02-2012, 10:29 PM)weijian Wrote: i have took notice of VICOM since late 2009 when it was doing at ~2bucks. My FA shown that it was a cash cow (good margins, debt free, stable biz, competitive moat and low payout ratio). However, my margin of safety rule demanded ~ a <1.50 buying price...

I think margin of safety is important but sometimes, a level of flexibility still needs to be adopted. VICOM by its fundamental nature is a very good business and definitely it can easily worth more than 12x P/E during normal times. Perhaps, your <1.50 buying price had been too over-disciplined in the times? Setting too high a hurdle rate can render all companies to be expensive..

(13-02-2012, 11:18 PM)pianist Wrote: i also thought "what went up will go down" when vicom was trading below a dollar.
i waited and waited and couldn't resist anymore and went in finally at 2.80 and just sold for 4 flat last friday. hmm..maybe sometime what went up might never go down again..

If a business continues to do well, grow and generate increasing profits and free cash flow, the share price should march steadily upwards; except, of course, during times of extreme distress when investors may need to sell in a panic and due to lack of liquidity, prices get depressed to artificial lows.

Since such occurences happen rather infrequently, I therefore bit the bullet and purchased some shares of VICOM at around $3.408 (pre-interim dividend of $0.069). My intention is to continue to be a shareholder as long as the story remains good, and the cash keeps filling the kitty.

Looking forward to the upcoming 7.5c final dividend, and 3.2c special dividend!

you can buy comfortfdelgro which holds 68% of vicom to enjoy a tiny weeny deemed stake of vicom. but cdg's sales is S$3B compared to Vicom's ~S$90M, even if vicom grow 100% also no effect to CDG!

(13-02-2012, 11:18 PM)pianist Wrote: i also thought "what went up will go down" when vicom was trading below a dollar.
i waited and waited and couldn't resist anymore and went in finally at 2.80 and just sold for 4 flat last friday. hmm..maybe sometime what went up might never go down again..

All boats will be lowered when the tide goes out. But some boats having sailed to the high ocean will be at a higher lows. The problem is some of us think it's not low enough, many times.
Are you one of them? i definitely was and will be in the future. The market will always be able to fool us or one step ahead of us - the ikan billis. HA! HA! But i think the professionals do not do much better than us. After all they are humans too. We all are.
Shalom.

(13-02-2012, 11:23 PM)dzwm87 Wrote:

(13-02-2012, 10:29 PM)weijian Wrote: i have took notice of VICOM since late 2009 when it was doing at ~2bucks. My FA shown that it was a cash cow (good margins, debt free, stable biz, competitive moat and low payout ratio). However, my margin of safety rule demanded ~ a <1.50 buying price...

I think margin of safety is important but sometimes, a level of flexibility still needs to be adopted. VICOM by its fundamental nature is a very good business and definitely it can easily worth more than 12x P/E during normal times. Perhaps, your <1.50 buying price had been too over-disciplined in the times? Setting too high a hurdle rate can render all companies to be expensive..

hi dzwm87, 'flexibility' is just another word for 'not following your rules'? (at least this is how i will see myself if i had panicked at the runaway prices n let greed take over) My 'strict margin of safety' has also saved me heart pain at times...bottomline is, i try to follow my rules. If my rules are wrong, i will review and change them.

On hindsight, i slapped a big premium on the entry dividend yield, as
(1) It is a small company with small float and not so liquid (as many mentioned)
(2) the memories of late2008-early2009 (investing at the bottom) were still fresh in my mind and i got a blue chip cash cow with a nice dividend yield just 1yr earlier. Therefore, contrasting the profile of the cash cow and VICOM, my margin of safety rule demanded a dividend yield of 200 basis points higher for VICOM.

I am still in the process of reviewing 'what went wrong' with my system (rules) with missing out on VICOM...

(13-02-2012, 11:18 PM)pianist Wrote: i also thought "what went up will go down" when vicom was trading below a dollar.
i waited and waited and couldn't resist anymore and went in finally at 2.80 and just sold for 4 flat last friday. hmm..maybe sometime what went up might never go down again..

What went up will always come down. When i say that i am refering to a ratio, not prices. I dont believe a S$1 share after 10 years will fall back to S$1 if its book value has been growing for the past 10 years. So the question to ask is, what was Vicom PB when it was trading below S$1? I can bet with you it will fall back to that PB level.