Reits look good, for now

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#1
Good issues raised on REITs......

Nov 15, 2010
CAI JIN
Reits look good, for now

By Goh Eng Yeow, Senior Correspondent

IT IS a time of plenty again for Singapore real estate investment trusts (Reits), as rentals soar and loan servicing costs drop precipitously.

In the past month, Reits have begun to make a big comeback on the local initial pubic offering (IPO) scene.

Mapletree Industrial Trust - a Temasek Holdings-linked Reit which owns factories, business parks and industrial buildings mostly in Singapore - recently raised $1.19 billion.

Another, Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial Reit - backed by locally listed Freight Link Express Holdings - is hoping to muster up to $700 million, if it successfully launches its offering.

And those two may just be teasers. DBS Bank - a market leader in helping Reits with listings and other forms of fund raising - expects a lot more such IPOs here in the coming months.

Its head for asset-backed structured products, Mrs Eng-Kwok Seat Moey, said recently that a number of sponsors had long been keen to launch Reits, but conditions in the past two years were simply not right.

Still, despite the palpable market buzz around Reits, many investors are still ignorant of what they are getting into.

The big draw are the headline-grabbing projected dividend yields of 7 per cent to 8 per cent offered by these Reits. That looks highly tempting when compared with the paltry 0.125 per cent interest typically offered on bank deposits.

But it is instructive to understand what Reits are all about and the potential pitfalls that may arise when times are not quite so rosy.

Reits are 'closed end' funds, which operate in a similar manner to unit trusts. But unlike unit trusts, which raise funds to invest in shares, Reits specialise in income-generating real estate assets, such as shopping malls, offices, industrial buildings, warehouses or hospitals.

Funds raised in a Reit IPO are used to buy a pool of properties which are then leased out to produce rental income - later distributed to investors as dividends or distributions.

A Reit will also appoint a manager - usually its sponsor or major shareholder - to manage its properties.

For the sponsor, the big attraction is the management fee which is paid to it as the Reit manager.

As this fee is charged against any income earned by the Reit, it may be in an investor's interest to find out how it is structured. This is because a hefty management fee may eat into any profit produced by the Reit and result in a lower dividend payout.

For Reits, the best way to enhance returns is to resort to bank borrowings to finance their property purchases. That is why they look their best in a low-interest rate environment.

To give an example, let us suppose a

Reit raises $500,000 from investors and borrows another $500,000 to buy a $1 million property which gives an annual rental income of $40,000.

If the bank charges 1 per cent interest on the loan, this will give the Reit an income of $35,000, after deducting the $5,000 in interest payment.

This works out to a 7 per cent return on the $500,000 put up by investors, even though the rental yield is only 4 per cent.

But here is the rub: If interest rates rise sharply - as they did during the global financial crisis two years ago - investors may suffer a plunge in dividend payout, as the increased debt servicing costs eat into the rental income.

Using the same example, if loan interest shoots up to 4 per cent, this will jack up the interest payment to $20,000, cut the Reit income to only $20,000 and almost halve the investors' return to 4 per cent.

Still, this is not the biggest problem which could confront a Reit if another financial crisis were to erupt.

In late 2008, the global credits market froze up completely after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers, and the global financial system teetered on the edge of collapse as banks trimmed their credit lines to customers sharply.

As most Reits had resorted to short-term borrowings to finance their property purchases, some of them faced difficulties in refinancing their debts as the lending dried up almost completely.

As the global credit crunch hit Singapore, some banks were reluctant to accept the properties offered to them by the Reits as collateral, even though they were still producing healthy rental incomes.

Fortunately for the Reits, the frozen credits market thawed after a few months, as central banks across the globe flooded the financial system with trillions of dollars of fresh money.

But one lesson that should be learnt is not to assume that the eye-catching high yields offered by Reits come risk-free.

Besides assessing the quality of properties in the Reit's portfolio, an investor should also ascertain its sponsor's financial health and willingness, as well as ability, to inject fresh money into the Reit if it is hit by a credit crunch.

One good example is CapitaLand. Early last year when things were at their bleakest, it stood fully behind its retail Reit, CapitaMall Trust, when it made a $1.23 billion cash call.

Three months later, CapitaLand also injected fresh funds into its commercial office Reit, CapitaCommercial Trust, when it made a $828 million cash call.

CapitaLand's move sent an unmistakable message to bankers and investors of the strong backing it was giving to the two Reits.

Looking ahead, as more Reit IPOs look set to come onto the market, investors should ask if other sponsors can offer a similar level of commitment to their Reits - or if their overriding objective is to earn that mouth-watering fee that comes from managing the properties in the Reit when times are good.

Once the champagne is popped and the headline-grabbing dividend yield is forgotten, these are the tough issues which a hard-headed investor must take into consideration before he puts his hard-earned money into a Reit.

engyeow@sph.com.sg

My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#2
As this euphoria persists, the next credit crisis may be occuring in Asia with the growing popularity of REITs and lack of regulation on them. REIT managers would come up with more innovative ways to focus on enhancing yield by engineering its leverage. Companies would jump into the bandwagon to offload their properties into investment vehicles and use the gained capital for any other purposes than supporting the leverage. Debt will rule the world!
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#3
A follow-up article written by Goh Eng Yeow on the risks of REITs.

Getting real on Reits
November 18, 2010 Thursday, 05:40 PM

Goh Eng Yeow on the dynamics behind Reits, one of the hottest investments in Singapore
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAST week, a colleague asked me if there was any catch in the headline-grabbing yields offered by Reits.

Considering that banks are only offering a paltry 0.125 per cent interest on savings, he wanted to know why it was possible for a Reit to give a far higher 7 to 8 per cent dividend payout.

It was a simple enough question, but it got me thinking about how Reits are structured, and the potential pitfalls involved. This finally culminated with me writing up the analysis as a Cai Jin column on Monday.

Given the bad experience over Lehman Brothers mini-bonds last year, it is not surprising to find discerning investors like my colleague who take a step back and go beyond the news.

Still, it is good to know that investors are finally beginning to question how they are getting the returns on their assets, rather than accept everything at face value from their dealer or financial adviser.

As it turns out, you do not have to be a rocket scientist to understand the mathematics behind the dividend payout offered by Reits.

Reits look their best in a low interest rates environment as they borrow to finance their property purchases. When interest rates drop to almost zero, the financing costs become almost negligible and this give a big boost to the yield on the property investment.

But there is a worry not usually highlighted by Reits promoters or analysts , and that is, Reits usually borrow on a short-term basis , usually between six months and one year.

I do not know why this should be the norm, considering that a home-owner would have taken a 20 or 25 year mortgage on his property, rather than subject himself to the vagaries of the credit market.

In good times, borrowing short-term should be okay, since banks would normally allow a borrower to roll-over his loan. And even if it refuses to do so, the borrower can usually refinance his loan somewhere.

But as I pointed out in an earlier blog, we should not take things for granted, given the distressing regularity in which financial crises seem to be occurring.

What happens if another global financial crisis, like the one which we experienced last year, were to erupt?

For an investor, it may not be enough to know the debt-to-equity ratio for a Reit. It may also be important to check how much of its borrowings has been secured on a long-term basis.

And as I pointed out in my Cai Jin column, it is also important to check out the financial worthiness of the Reit sponsor.

When the bank comes calling to try to get its money back, Reit may have to resort to raising funds from its investors to repay the loan if it cannot find an alternative lender to lend it the money. In such circumstances, everyone will be looking to the sponsor to take the lead.


My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#4
Frankly, I do think we are reaching a euphoria proportion in local Reits sector.
Alot of threads I noticed at other more novice investment forums are:
1. Which Reits are good?
2. Reits are dividend paying so super uber safe.
3. Reits are good for beating the pathetic local banks interest rate. (Not saying this is wrong but just bcos girl A is prettier than girl B doesn't make A a better wife. Get my drift?)
4. As long as Reits price is below its NAV --> Buy buy buy!!

Finally we have a thread on the dangers of investing in Reits.
Kudos to this thread.

Cheers.

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#5
But there is a worry not usually highlighted by Reits promoters or analysts , and that is, Reits usually borrow on a short-term basis , usually between six months and one year.

This guy made this statement , but just wonder how many reits really borrow on six months and one year basis ?
From what I know they usually borrow for 3 years .
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#6
A better question would be how would a REIT ever repay its loans when it is forced to distribute at least 90% of its income to unit-holders ? LOL
Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
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#7
(18-11-2010, 11:18 PM)Nick Wrote: A better question would be how would a REIT ever repay its loans when it is forced to distribute at least 90% of its income to unit-holders ? LOL
Sale the assets at discount. Big Grin

A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.
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#8
(18-11-2010, 11:30 PM)cyborg Wrote: Sale the assets at discount. Big Grin

Would other Reits stand ready to buy assets from a large Reit that is failing? Not quite possible as most Reits are geared quite close to the limits. Can they then raise massive new capital to do so? Not quite possible unless the Reit is backed by a strong parent and the stock market is still receptive.

It will be quite interesting to think about the possibility of the failure of a large Reit along the line of a 'too big to fail' situation. I suppose if the banks and the banking system still stand, the creditor banks and lenders will take over the Reit's assets, and unitholders will end up being the main losers.
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#9
For bank they will take over the assets only at the last resort otherwise they will only end up as property company or big land lord.
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#10
A good case study will be the on-going CMBS loan default by Saizen REIT. The potential new lenders wants Saizen to reduce the amount owed by selling its properties. It has sold quite a few properties this year at a discount to book value.

Personally, an ideal business trust would be one that pays down its loans consistently with a portion of the cash-flow it generated.
Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
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