Posts: 2,278
Threads: 78
Joined: Oct 2010
Reputation:
34
01-01-2012, 05:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-01-2012, 05:08 PM by Nick.)
(01-01-2012, 04:45 PM)Stocker Wrote: Feel MAS is unable to alter anything to the old IPO prospectus. Mas will likely do chnages to the future new reits.
(01-01-2012, 02:14 PM)Nick Wrote: Fortune REIT is proposing to acquire HK$1.9 billion worth of properties so this will mean acquisition fees and higher recurring AUM fees in 2012.
Historic EPS is 9 cents with 4.8 cents dividend. At current prices, the PER is 13.6 with yield of 3.9% If ARA adopts the REIT style of 100% payout, its yield would be 7.3% which is significantly better than its managed REITs considering it has a very clean b/s. I don't think it is very cheap but it is being priced for growth so if this doesn't materialize, the price may falter.
(Vested)
Believe 9 cts was before bonus issue ?
Yea...I didn't take into account the 1 for 10 split. Hence due to the split, the historic EPS drops to 8.30 cents with 9M 11 EPS at 7.15 cents. It isn't cheap > $1 unless you believe they can grow their AUM rapidly. How are management fees pegged in Australia, Japan and USA ? If they follow the same system as we have right now, I doubt MAS will change anything. Just look at Cityspring - base management fees are pegged to market capitalization only - yet the DPU and share price is shrinking.
Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
Posts: 66
Threads: 4
Joined: Dec 2010
Reputation:
3
I agree with Nick that it isnt cheap at > S$1.
Two risk factors which are often overlooked:
(a) given the stakes held in REITs, ARA could need to stump up cash if the REITs ever need to do a rights issue. Otherwise its stake will be diluted. So it could be caught in a "multiple whammy" if the REITs it has stakes in suffer asset value writedowns in a downturn and are forced to recapitalise.
(b) the world of real estate fund management has changed significantly since 2008. it isn't easy to raise money from investors today unless you put in sufficient skin in the game, ie, you need to invest adequately alongside your investors. From what I know, their fund raising for Asia Dragon Fund II is behind schedule. But more importantly, investors want more investment from ARA into the ADFII. What this means is it imposes a drag on its ROE. Its business going forward will no longer be as "asset light" as in the past.
Posts: 2,113
Threads: 19
Joined: Dec 2010
Reputation:
5
Suntec Reit's market price is relative low compared with other peers listed in SGX. Is market anticipating a right issue given Suntec Reit's high gearing and anticipated huge capex on Suntec City? It certainly will impact ARA in certain way.
Posts: 606
Threads: 11
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation:
6
Suntec reit never issue right before , only private placements.
Posts: 606
Threads: 11
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation:
6
Some buying interest lately. Sold some at 1.265 today.
Posts: 606
Threads: 11
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation:
6
This one sometimes can be volatile also. It hit 1.295 yesterday, now back to 1.25.
Posts: 606
Threads: 11
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation:
6
This one sometimes can be volatile also. It hit 1.295 yesterday, now back to 1.25.
Homepage
PR Newswire
