The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

Same feeling! It's like 2 beggars hugging together and hope everything will be ok tomorrow...

haha. If both beggars crashes, China goods have nowhere to be exported, their economy will crash. China growth stop, SE Asia, Australia will crash. World demand falls, oil production falls, Mid East crash. Suddenly, globalization will become the world's greatest enemy and not friend for the past 10 years.

Purely from debt point of view, they look like beggars.
But, from the sheer amount of intellectual properties, know-hows and innovative technologies that they own, the rest of the world, with the exception of Japan and maybe Korea, are the real beggars.

Interesting developments occuring again.. Deutscheland unofficially proclaimed to refuse the double funding facilities.

Seriously, at the rate this is going, I reckon the whole of Europe is going on a Shakespearean play. Every twist and turn is occuring like.. one week?
Sheeze..

Extracted from Lim and Tan report (they seem cautiously optimistic),

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese...taland.pdf

Some extracts,

 European and US stocks reacted favorably to news out of the Dec 8-9 EU Summit, principally that 23 out of 27 EU members (but all 17 eurozone members) agreeing to need for fiscal compact, and the broad agreement between France and Germany.

 The main dissenter, and hardly a surprise, is UK, not happy with the proposed financial transactions tax, and insisting on concessions for the City of London. (As President Sarkozy rightly retorted those who did not want to join the euro are not in the best place to advise its members of its functioning.)

 We believe the deal struck on Friday as well as the “help” given by the European Central Bank (announced last Thursday) mark the end of the Euro Crisis, although the recovery process / trajectory is unlikely to match the recovery that followed the Mar ’09 bottom of the 2008 Financial Crisis (within 3 months, Dow had recovered an astounding 33% - Exhibit 1).

 There will likely be setbacks along the way, eg social unrest / demonstrations; elections in France, Greece in early 2012; slowdown in China; and the endless market cynicism.

 Besides, the treaties Merkel and Sarkozy worked so hard on, are set to be in place by Mar ’12.

 Meanwhile, bond markets will provide vital clues: how low will bond yields in key countries like Italy, Spain fall to (or prices rise to) after their recent surge (decline) to untenable levels.

(12-12-2011, 09:22 PM)KopiKat Wrote:  There will likely be setbacks along the way, eg social unrest / demonstrations; elections in France, Greece in early 2012; slowdown in China; and the endless market cynicism.

Jus a general note..

Reminds me of Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.. except location change to Europe. If this really happens, it won't goes down well.

We got our "little red dot" acroymn from Habbie during the crisis era I recall. Never seen normal infantry reservists training with Bionics and AMX-30 tanks except that period. Still gives me the chill what exactly happened behind the scenes.

Bah.. Anyone got lobang to buy properties at Canary Wharf or some uber elite housing there?

(HK PE around 9. Near historical lows...Next week the stock market might be bullish as hedge funds try to push up the index but after that what's next? The scenario I hope for is that Euro and US stock market to muddle thru while funds flow into Asia)

Quiet month would be best case scenario

13th December: US markets are still moving in a range, despite the wild volatility. A breakout of 12,300 would be required for the Dow to escape its range. The best case scenario for Europe would be a month or two of bottoming before attempting another rally. The long term chart for EEM, representing emerging markets, shows a bullish channel. The etf is supported on that channel. With luck, emerging markets are now bottoming.

Thailand was the surprise over the last two weeks, rallying substantially. Other Asian markets are still lacklustre and the best case scenario is for another month or two of bottoming. PE for the Hang Seng Index is near historical lows, which suggests that the market is bottoming or close to a second bottom. In all, a quiet month or two would be the best case scenario for the global trend.

http://www.asiachart.com/

http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html

http://www.asiachart.com/hkchina.html

how to see PE for the countries?

Well, I think we should look at forward P/Es and not Historical P/Es.
Market crashes look unlikely, I think there maybe a meltdown looking at the volumes in SGX.

The share price of SGX also melting. As I do not know how th short shares, I shall wait for it to drop further then buy.

Other counters also falling, looks cheap but get cheaper every month.....

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died of physical and mental over-work. Another unknown factor in the geopolitical risk thrown into the pot. The moral of the story is not to stress ourselves too hard physically and mentally. Enjoy the holiday seasons while we can.