Samudera Shipping

(16-11-2022, 08:09 PM)Yoyo Wrote: Update
Since the informative press article dated 8 Sept 2022, Samudera share price tumbled from a high of $1.12 to a recent low of $0.785

These two months witnessed global shipping rates declined by 80% (the main linears).  I wonder if such drop has catch Samudera offguard.  I am, expecting a gradual decline.  The favourable 9 months results (profit guidance) has set the floor for the share price for the moments.  The market gyration is a bit too much to stomach, and I have taken the opportunity to further liquidated some of my holding.  My original intention is to hold all till the announcement of full year results in end Feb 2023.  

Just to pen down my thought.

hi Yoyo,

As an accountant by training, I think you have actually practised "mark to market accounting" but maybe a tad too frequent.  I hope you have read Daniel Kahneman/Amos Tversky's prospect theory. There are some lessons to be learnt there to help OPMIs to create systems around ourselves, to help ourselves from ourselves.

Besides our own capital, it is just as important to preserve our sanity and so it is a good move to "sell down to sleeping point".

https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=PAAaYEaicYaydyP3bmiEeO_xPwLMTjxva6_...
An interesting interview by the CEO. According to him, even though the freight index has been dropping but their Q4 result is not impacted due to the fact that they have long term contract with their customer.
Even though he admitted the lower freight rate will impact 2023 result but he is still pretty optimistic for 2023 as Indonesia is one of the largest commodities export country. The world is opening up and there is more demand for different commodities from Indonesia.

https://theloadstar.com/cash-rich-samude...new-fleet/

Gaining attention from the market...

In view of my numerous posting on Samudera, I owe a closure on my position.

Samudera performance has been disappointing since my initial investment of 20k shares @ 0.27 on May 2015.  My interests was rekindled by Squirrel postings and the increasing container shipping rates in May 2021.  Following active exchanges on valuebuddies and on the background of miserable bank interests, I have accumulated enough to form one of my core investments by late Aug 2021.  Investment thesis - Favourable shipping prospects, a rising tide lifts all boats (with the benefit of 'knowing' through its Indonesian holding company)

Things turned up positively with big liners declaring record breaking profit and bonus.  In fact too good to be true.  A shipping supercycle, one in 60 years.  Though Samudera has reported a more than decent 2021 profit, its results is somewhat muted by its 12 months contract with its customers, ie time lag.  2022 indeed records the real windfall, with profit 150% over that of 2021.  Samudera reached an all time high of $1.55 on 7 March 2023.

Unfortunately being yo-yo, I have moved in and out of Samudera often.  Plunging shipping rates, towering new builts, recessionary pressures has weighed on its cyclical natures.  I have caved in, liquidated substantially in Nov/Dec 2022 and cash out the balance by end Feb 2023.

On the whole, it has been a great ride for me. Many thanks to all postings for sheltering me through the mental stress. And needless to say, a big Thanks to Squirrel.

Hi bryan2003

You are the last guard of Samudera that I know.  Congratulation to you and hope that you have cashed out some if not all of your holdings near the all time high.

Is the container shipping party over?  

Mixed signals: Container shipping downturn not following the script
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mixed-...the-script

5 April 2023
Spot container freight indexes are still falling. Cargo shippers are signing annual contracts at sharply lower rates than last year. Import demand continues to be crippled by high inventories. A massive wave of new container ships is now hitting the market in full force.

And yet, the container shipping industry does not appear to be battening down the hatches for a looming storm. It is not behaving like an industry facing an imminent crisis.

The rates paid by liner companies to charter container ships bottomed out earlier this year and are now increasing. The duration of charters is rising as well.

The number of idle container ships has decreased in recent weeks. Liner companies continue to buy more vessels in the secondhand market.

The expected tsunami of ship recycling has yet to occur. The number of older ships demolished year to date is lower than expected. And container lines continue to place orders at shipyards for more vessels.

(03-04-2023, 03:18 PM)Yoyo Wrote: In view of my numerous posting on Samudera, I owe a closure on my position.

Samudera performance has been disappointing since my initial investment of 20k shares @ 0.27 on May 2015.  My interests was rekindled by Squirrel postings and the increasing container shipping rates in May 2021.  Following active exchanges on valuebuddies and on the background of miserable bank interests, I have accumulated enough to form one of my core investments by late Aug 2021.  Investment thesis - Favourable shipping prospects, a rising tide lifts all boats (with the benefit of 'knowing' through its Indonesian holding company)

Things turned up positively with big liners declaring record breaking profit and bonus.  In fact too good to be true.  A shipping supercycle, one in 60 years.  Though Samudera has reported a more than decent 2021 profit, its results is somewhat muted by its 12 months contract with its customers, ie time lag.  2022 indeed records the real windfall, with profit 150% over that of 2021.  Samudera reached an all time high of $1.55 on 7 March 2023.

Unfortunately being yo-yo, I have moved in and out of Samudera often.  Plunging shipping rates, towering new builts, recessionary pressures has weighed on its cyclical natures.  I have caved in, liquidated substantially in Nov/Dec 2022 and cash out the balance by end Feb 2023.

On the whole, it has been a great ride for me.  Many thanks to all postings for sheltering me through the mental stress. And needless to say, a big Thanks to Squirrel.

Hi bryan2003

You are the last guard of Samudera that I know.  Congratulation to you and hope that you have cashed out some if not all of your holdings near the all time high.

Hi Yoyo,

I yet to dispose a single share due to the facts below.

1) Even the net profit of Samudera dropped 50% YoY, the net profit still around USD 150M-160M which translate to SGD 0.36 (EPS). The PE is still pretty low hence, personally feel it is kinda "safe". 
2) In term of dividend for 2023, based on previous paid out record, the company payout is around 40-50% of the net profit. Hence, it is around SGD 0.14 per share. Based on current price, the dividend yield is around 10% but based on my cost, the yield is more than 70% after net off all dividends received previously.
3) Net cash company.
4) Those newly delivered vessels mostly for liner but not for carrier. Those giant shipping lines (liner) like Evergreen, Wan Hai, Maerks etc need those carrier company like Samudera, PIL, Temas Line etc to send the container from the major port to smaller port. This is because their vessels are too huge and the port facilities has height limitation (ports in undeveloped or developing countries) to lift the container from vessel to the yard. Also, many of the ports in developing countries are not deep sea port. Hence, the service from Samudera to transit the containers from big port like PSA Singapore to smaller ports are still required. 
5) Samudera shipping is 65% owner by PT Samudera TBK where PT Samudera TBK is highly owned by the CEO family who running the business. I am convinced that the high dividend payout will not suddenly cease if the company is still making money as the high payout indirectly benefitted to the owner.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/...023-04-14/

https://ctee.com.tw/news/stocks/847455.html

(20-04-2023, 04:13 PM)bryan2003 Wrote: https://ctee.com.tw/news/stocks/847455.html

hi bryan2003,

Single links without any context is not encouraged on vb.com. Please give more context (eg. title or some portions of the article or some personal insights)

Moderator

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/samud...tahun-2023


PERFORMANCE TARGET ISSUER - JAKARTA. PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) believes that the performance in the second quarter of this year will show positive results. This optimism was driven by SMDR's business achievements in the first quarter which were said to have exceeded management's expectations.

Main Director of SMDR, Bani Maulana Mulia explained, actual performance during the first quarter of 2023 had exceeded management's expectations. Even though year on year (yoy) decreased from the first quarter of 2022, business in the first quarter of this year was higher compared to the first quarter of 2022 and previous years.


“I have often explained that 2022 is a special year, where the freight rate is extraordinarily high. So the performance of the first quarter of 2023 only "lost" to the first quarter of 2022, but "won" from all the first quarters of previous years, and was also better than the budget budget," said Bani, when contacted by Kontan.co.id, not yet this long.

On the other hand, the positive catalyst driving SMDR's business performance this year was the favorable market conditions.

Thus, it is hoped that the realization of performance until the end of the year will be better than the budgeted target. But unfortunately, Bani did not detail the exact business targets budgeted for this year.

Also Read: Samudera Indonesia (SMDR) Realizes US$ 60 Million Capex in the First Quarter of 2023

"We see that the level of customer demand remains high, and the level of freight rate also has the potential to be better compared to the first quarter of 2023," he added.

As an illustration, SMDR recorded revenue of US$ 207.7 million, a 17% decrease yoy from the previous US$ 250 million in the first quarter of 2022.

In line with that, EBITDA which was booked in the first quarter of 2023 fell 37% to US$ 75.4 million from US$ 119.6 million in the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, operating profit fell to US$ 42 million and net profit also decreased 53% yoy to US$ 27.4 million.

Bani continued, the plan to expand the addition of the fleet also continues this year. In fact, the target for adding ships this year is one of the highest.


SMDR Chart by TradingView
Referring to KONTAN's records, throughout this year SMDR has prepared capex of Rp. 2.25 trillion, of which 60% or Rp. 1.35 trillion is allocated for additional fleets of ships, both container, bulk and tanker vessels.

Meanwhile, the remaining 40% of capex will be used for business development plans in the port and logistics sector.