The Hour Glass

THG continues buy-backs at $2.19-24 ranges,
FMR has been selling and is now down to 5.49% holding,

looks good for continual slow-buying and slow-selling for both parties...

(17-08-2022, 10:35 AM)brattzz Wrote: THG continues buy-backs at $2.19-24 ranges,
FMR has been selling and is now down to 5.49% holding,

looks good for continual slow-buying and slow-selling for both parties...

You should also track the Tay Family's interest, which has been rising because of THG buying back own shares.

The frustrating point is that THG has never won enough love from investors to have a 15-20 PE ratio.

Watches of Switzerland has a PE of 20 while THG's PE has always fluctuated between 7-10.

If management goes on a few roadshows a year maybe shareholders would become twice as rich.

But a purist value investor would prefer management to focus on the business and look less at the share price.

(17-08-2022, 11:43 PM)Choon Wrote: The frustrating point is that THG has never won enough love from investors to have a 15-20 PE ratio.

Watches of Switzerland has a PE of 20 while THG's PE has always fluctuated between 7-10.

If management goes on a few roadshows a year maybe shareholders would become twice as rich.

But a purist value investor would prefer management to focus on the business and look less at the share price.

Controlling shareholder and management cannot determine/control share price or market valuation, which is driven by forces from quite many, including new big investors (including funds), speculators, market rumour mongers, corporate actions (dividends, new investments, acquisitions, privatisation, scandals), and others.

THG has attracted Fidelity (a blue-chip U.S. funds house) which had over many years accumulated a 10% interest, but in the past year the fund has started to reduce its interest, likely to take profits - a normal behaviour for funds. What is interesting is that THG has been very actively buying back its own shares, which started from 14Feb2020, at $0.775..
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...5d921aeccd

The share buyback has now become nearly a daily event, and todate THG has already bought back a total of 40,126,000 shares (5.7% of its issued shares base of 703,981,880)..
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...91ab5f8953

Such active - over two and a half years now! - and massive share buyback is not quite normal. The indirect result is that Dr Henry Tay as the controlling shareholder has his family's interest raised to over 70% now.

It has been a good ride since Mar2020 for the minorities too, including enjoying a total $0.16/share in dividends.

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM3_25...eID=729882

FMR has sold to below 5%, at ave, $2.18+, and is no longer required to report their transaction/holding to SGX anymore,

Of the 3,500,100 shares of indirect interests disposed by Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC,
(i) 626,800 shares was executed via market transaction, and,
(ii) 2,873,300 shares was off-market married deals. (watch out!! )

Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC's interests in the securities of The Hour Glass Limited are
currently entirely comprised as deemed interests. Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC is deemed
to have interests in the securities of The Hour Glass Limited because such securities are held by funds and/or
accounts managed by Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC as well as by one or more of its direct
and indirect subsidiaries, which are fund managers,

Current 30,154,180 holding shares : valued at SGD66 milos (ave. $2.20/share)

Current : 4.56%

Expect FMR to continue selling, and THG to continue buy-buy-buy!!!

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...819b88fdae

THG continues buy-backs, at SGD2.368+, holds 6.6% as treasury shares till date,

It is great that there is some anecdotal evidence that young people are picking up horology. They have a whole lifetime ahead of time to collect watches and upgrade their collections accordingly to their earning power.

S’pore watch collector saved pocket money & worked odd jobs through poly to buy S$11,000 Rolex at 21

“Suddenly, having the money isn’t enough, you need to be ‘known’ as well. Thankfully this is happening only to a select few watch brands but they’re brands that see huge demand for their watches.”

Chan admitted that he’s envious of those with the right connections or family in the space as it would have made things easier for him.

https://mothership.sg/2022/09/watch-collectors/

i am quite worried about youngsters spending tens of thousands on watches, but i'm just an old folly...
i rather they spend the money investing in the companies making/selling such products...

youngsters, being young and with their longest run-way, they will have the most fulfillment being value investors then all things else!

anecdotally seems like more downside to the watch market when youngsters and news cover it

Like crypto, seems like it's the chinese who helped drove up the prices

(15-09-2022, 03:28 PM)weijian Wrote: It is great that there is some anecdotal evidence that young people are picking up horology. They have a whole lifetime ahead of time to collect watches and upgrade their collections accordingly to their earning power.

S’pore watch collector saved pocket money & worked odd jobs through poly to buy S$11,000 Rolex at 21

“Suddenly, having the money isn’t enough, you need to be ‘known’ as well. Thankfully this is happening only to a select few watch brands but they’re brands that see huge demand for their watches.”

Chan admitted that he’s envious of those with the right connections or family in the space as it would have made things easier for him.

https://mothership.sg/2022/09/watch-collectors/

(16-09-2022, 02:04 PM)brattzz Wrote: i am quite worried about youngsters spending tens of thousands on watches, but i'm just an old folly...
i rather they spend the money investing in the companies making/selling such products...

youngsters, being young and with their longest run-way, they will have the most fulfillment being value investors then all things else!

It is dependent on their source of money. If youngsters are using their parents' money or from dubious sources, or even getting into debt to spend on their horological hobbies, then there is a cause for concern. It will be unhealthy.

But if their thirst for horology drives them to improve their earning power - whether is it accelerating their careers or creating side hustles, then it would be a great plus. They will need to save to buy these luxury watches and that cultivates a saving habit rather than spending it on merry and drink. As an old folly myself, I know merry/drink would probably be a waste of money but luxury mechanical watches are not. The latter is timeless and are probably great investments if done right, isn't it?

Personally, I think having a "long run-way" is over-rated. Warren Buffett's newspaper boy career and his first pinball machine at 17, is only unique for the Omaha Oracle. He is the Oracle because there are not a lot of people like him. End of the day, different people have different strokes. Different background, different make and different paths. There is no right, and there is no wrong.

Finally, now back to the luxury mechanical watch. This industry is getting more anti-fragile.

(1) Smartwatches are getting the smartphone-only millennials to get used to wearing something on their wrist. They will be ripe as potential customers to sell to when their earning power or interests intersect with horology.

(2) As long as watchmakers remember the 2015 oversupply situation and do not step out of line, focusing on quality over quantity, the long term tail wind from an image-conscious Asian population will allow robust growth.