Singapore stocks: Once bitten, twice shy

For anyone chasing the next Apple, Alphabet or Amazons, I offer the below article and table.

https://graphics.wsj.com/table/INVESTOR_0129
https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-45711

the 30th super stock, Dynamic Materials Corporation has an annualised return of 17.28% over 30 years. Great return but I believe when you start talking about Apple, Alphabet or Amazons, 17.28% doesn't look high enough.

So anyone who is able to buy a stock that produce 20%p.a. over say 30 years mean you are able to pick that couple of stocks out of few thousands if you are looking at US alone. Well, still easier than winning toto.

Frankly it's quite meaningless to look at individual stock. You can own the top flier stock but only 0.1% of your NAV. Similarly you can adjust a risky position by just allocation 0.1% of NAV or elevate a safe position to be risky 1/2 of your NAV.

High conviction high allocation plays a big part. Timeline is also important to assess what market conditions was the context or the performance. Snip a selected portion of the timeline and even the best investor can look dumb.

Buffett was never shy to discuss his failures but this difficult game of investing is about consistency to lose less on losers and win more on winners. You cannot be lucky consistently but the process can be done consistently and how to manage the risk on asset allocation basis. I trust people who share their failures more. Those who always win are either cocktail talks or selling courses.

And yes I think different people have different edge on different processes; but the principle must be right to identify market mispricing, either following it or contrary to it. I've also seen traders done well and Buffett style has also changed through the years cause the constraints are also becoming different. For me I don't go for style centric processes but more adaptive to what works cause I'm not an academic.

(24-08-2021, 01:27 PM)donmihaihai Wrote: I can still remember the period when people in forums and blogs were avoiding US stocks(especially tech) and winning a lot with SGX stocks. But most of those from that period are no longer around in forum or blog. Those that are still around are either good investor or just love the game of chance. And good investors usually don’t blog or chat alot because they don’t need to. Similarly, I expect many of the current “investors” to be gone in say next 5 years. Bull suck people in, bear throw them out.

I have been wondering where the previously active buddies in this forum had gone to. There were much more in-depth discussions. In any case, the STI index does look pretty flat over the last 10 years, compared with Dow/S&P.

Perhaps it would help if there are more activist fund managers are involved in our local mkt. After all, retail shareholders have very limited clout.

On a separate note, specuvestor made an interesting pt about the amt vested in that winning stock. Thinking further, I am not sure how meaningful it is even if a retail investor manages to achieve a fantastic record of multi-baggers, beating the performance of the index or professionally managed funds but it's all small bets. Unless it is for other reasons(e.g. intellectual challenge, etc, because for one to be at the top of his/her, there are many personal sacrifices to be made), that investor could be financially better off going back to his/her full-time job because I believe the amt of effort would more or less be the same unless one is incredibly lucky. 

Extending it further, perhaps then, the true "financial" gauge for full-time retail investors is not beating benchmarks but the salary he/she would have gotten working full time or at least the median income, but compared over a long period of time, say returns equivalent of 3 years' annual income since it takes time for the investments to see results. After all, professional fund managers are also paid a regular salary. 

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STI index
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5Esti/

Third Point re-invests in Disney, pushes for changes including ESPN spin off
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/cna-life...in-2882026
"BOSTON : Hedge fund Third Point on Monday unveiled a new position in Walt Disney Co and made a string of suggestions, ranging from spinning off cable sports channel ESPN to share buybacks to new board members, to improve the company's fortunes..."

Salary Guide Singapore Across Industries (2022): Are You Paid Enough?
https://blog.seedly.sg/salary-guide-singapore/

I personally know of people who are in high paying jobs but entails high stress and high commitment to their job, resulting in little time and opportunity to spend their money. Not to mention the tolls the job has on their health. For these people, it is nearly impossible to get the same return from investment to be on par with their full time job. And very often, their investment is usually negative return because of the lack of commitment and time spend on it.

But the question is, do they really need so much money?

So perhaps, a more achievable and realistic financial gauge is whether one can get enough return from investment to sustain one basic needs in life. If yes, it’s probable a viable consideration to go full time investment and ditch the high stress high commitment job.

Once the basic needs are met, then we should spend more time and effort on our biggest and most important investment, ie, our health, both physical and mental health

Thought I will chime in here on my belief.

What I think is that if done at a certain proportion, annual pay will never catch up to investment returns after 10-15 years. That’s because investment accumulates and compounds on past savings. While annual pay increases at a standard pace for most. Of course this is if you invest a very significant portion of your wealth.

My view is that one should invest in their employability and increase their take home when young and from there put the money to work in investments. Honestly the investment journey for me is more like a video game and is enjoyable. I don’t think I have ever spent that much time on it like a full time job though.

Throughout the past years of investment, more than 80% of my portfolio are in SG stocks. Personally because this is a less attractive market, it’s actually easier to find an undervalued counter. Though the same can be said of Value traps.

A monkey can't swim like a fish, while a fish can't climb a tree like a monkey. There is no mistake when monkeys climb trees and fishes swim in the water. The mistake comes when the fish decides to climb trees, or the monkey decides to go swimming.

There is little point debating on the merits of swimming vs tree climbing. They are meant for different beings. And also, everyone's mileage is different too.

So are you a monkey or fish? What is your mileage? Maybe these are the right questions.

It is also ok for monkeys who tried swimming, almost drown and then U-turn and go back to climbing trees. Vice versa for the fish. It is ok to be wrong, it is only not ok to stay wrong (or keep in your own illusion that you "should be right" about the activity you chosen)

Doubts are good. It means one is asking questions. The only thing is whether (1) asking the right question, (2) answering it truthfully.

Nice thread to dig out. I refer to the OP ref BT on 20 Aug 2021 that:

AS a seasoned stock market investor since the 1990s, Ken is no stranger to market fluctuations and paper losses. As of today, the 56-year-old has lost some S$300,000 in the Singapore stock market, while his investments in the United States and Hong Kong have given him sizeable profits. "Retail investors don't have much confidence here, they're getting toasted," he tells The Business Times. "I've lost so much money that I'm scared."

The timing of this article is pretty impeccable as from Sept 2021 the US market started to be choppy and speculatives peaked in Nov 2021 while Chinn / HK market collapsed from July; while SG became the better performing market

Absolutes never fail to amaze me

Here is an example of how one's interest can give enjoyment throughout one's life...
Is it the pursuit to win, to game the system, to get more money...or simply testing one's beliefs ..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akFS0odjAHs

(16-08-2022, 01:03 PM)specuvestor Wrote: ..

The timing of this article is pretty impeccable as from Sept 2021 the US market started to be choppy and speculatives peaked in Nov 2021 while Chinn / HK market collapsed from July; while SG became the better performing market

Absolutes never fail to amaze me

SPY ETF 1 year performance: 443 to 429 (-3% before dividends)
STI 1 year performance: 3102 to 3253 (+5% before dividends)

SPY 10 year performance (16th Aug 2012 to 16th Aug 2022): +204% before dividends
STI 10 year performance (16th Aug 2012 to 16th Aug 2022): +7.5% before dividends

Source: Yahoo Finance

(16-08-2022, 10:38 AM)Squirrel Wrote: Thought I will chime in here on my belief.

What I think is that if done at a certain proportion, annual pay will never catch up to investment returns after 10-15 years. That’s because investment accumulates and compounds on past savings. While annual pay increases at a standard pace for most. Of course this is if you invest a very significant portion of your wealth.

My view is that one should invest in their employability and increase their take home when young and from there put the money to work in investments. Honestly the investment journey for me is more like a video game and is enjoyable. I don’t think I have ever spent that much time on it like a full time job though.

Throughout the past years of investment, more than 80% of my portfolio are in SG stocks. Personally because this is a less attractive market, it’s actually easier to find an undervalued counter. Though the same can be said of Value traps.

Hi Squirrel! That is exactly what I have been doing, and with some luck, I managed to leave corporate world 9 years ago.

However, I must say that till today, my investment return is still lower than my last pay cheque 9 years ago. But that is ok, as the return is sufficient to meet my life needs.

My portfolio, however, has grown by more than 40% over the last 9 years, which is of course nothing to shout about. So perhaps in another 10 years’ times, and with some luck, my return may be able to meet my last drawn pay.