Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

And I’m sure we will be seeing different companies at the top in the next 30 years.

Maybe more Chinese companies. And different American companies.

A new generation of gung ho innovators/entrepreneurs will create more competitive products and services of tomorrow to disrupt the incumbent.

Even by the end of 2030, the business landscape will probably be very different from 2020.

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I’m not so sure about Alibaba, but my bet is on China too.

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10 years is a long time. How time flies. Hopefully VB will still be around in the next 10 years.

At least most of the top20 stocks in 1989 is still around

I thought more instructive is that most of the >2000 automobile companies were gone in 20 years... Short term make hay while the sun shines

And that Berkshire’s management is the slowest aging management by % a reminder to be careful about ratios and to have right context...

Below is the transcript if you have a problem spending 5 to 6 hrs listening.

https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/war...cript-2021

The top 20 largest companies in the world by market cap tables in Mar 2021 and Dec 1989 is actually part of the quiz from WB on stock picking. Just that he narrow it down to the biggest and most famous and which one to invest in for the next 30 years.

I can image what many people will be thinking when the Mar 2021 list pop up with the famous names we know. ie start picking. I can also image how the same people will be thinking when WB pop the the 1989 list. ie throw away the picks.

Of course the next thing will be more China Companies. If you can't pick the stock, pick the country or countries. ie index. Mind you, if you bet Japan in 1989, good luck. ignore individual co. Look at Nikkei.

Of course this is just WB quiz on stock picking and he won't say his picks because it will be like endorsing BH or Apple and why he is not buying Alibaba or google and also why invite more competition?

On EV, I think it create an opening for more competition on the same automotive industry. More competition mean higher chances of lower return. And there is a possibility that before EV is mature, autonomous car will kick in which i think it will create even bigger opening.

By chance I looked into one of Berkshire's subsidiaries - Marmon Holdings - this afternoon, and I am quite surprised to note in Marmon there is a large Marmon Crane Services Group, comprising 4 sub-groups/companies which provide crane rental and heavy-lift services in Canada, U.S.A. and Australia..
https://www.marmon.com/crane_services.html

https://joycecrane.com/about (U.S. based; acquired by Marmon in 2019)
https://www.sterlingcrane.ca/index.php (Canada and U.S. based, biggest company in Marmon Crane Services Group)
http://freogroup.com.au/about-us/ (Australia based; acquired by Marmon in 2012)
https://www.wgccranes.com.au/ (Australia based; acquired by Marmon in 2018)

So through Marmon, Berkshire and Buffett are growing a crane rental/heavy-lift business.

I thought item 4 is really interesting. As an OPMI with a 9-5 job, I love it when Mgt shares about strategy and their moats and stuff....And somewhere I read - the true monopolist will never share about their dominance because they are really scared of attracting the attention of regulators. In fact, they play them down (ditto Mark Zuckerberg in his Senate hearing). Only bosses who have no real moats/monopolies like to brag about it.

Learnings from the 2021 Berkshire AGM: "What you prattle out, you pound in" ... "Economy is red-hot"

4. CEOs making public statements on strategy: “What's really interesting is the way you prattle out all the time, you're pounding back in even if it's wrong. And so one of my favorite remarks in the history of human remarks was by Sir Cedric Hardwicke, who is a great British actor. And he said, "I have been a great actor for so long that I no longer know what I truly think on any subject." And I think that happens to a lot of people. And it happens to virtually every politician.” (Charlie Munger)

https://www.qualitycompounders.com.au/po...is-red-hot

Similarly I'm skeptical / cautious of people who only boast about their success like they can do no wrong...

Note how Buffett talks about his mistakes in the Annual Report frequently

(24-05-2021, 03:03 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Note how Buffett talks about his mistakes in the Annual Report frequently

Take note Robert Cialdini had once "called out" WB as a Master of influence - by admitting his mistakes freely in the AR (especially at the start) and signaling to our subconscious that he can be trusted.
Ever since, I have realized "admitting mistakes" in a public setting brings more external good (people will tend to trust you afterwards) than internal harm (feeling stupid)....

If that is true I have not seen it done often

More often I see from management is to project sense of confidence, in control and sometimes invincibility with little competition and maybe even arrogance... and generally on the receiving side, the majority still wants to hear good things rather than mistakes so they can "trust" the speaker. Isn't that's how it's done in scams

My observations only

(24-05-2021, 07:08 PM)weijian Wrote:

(24-05-2021, 03:03 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Note how Buffett talks about his mistakes in the Annual Report frequently

Take note Robert Cialdini had once "called out" WB as a Master of influence - by admitting his mistakes freely in the AR (especially at the start) and signaling to our subconscious that he can be trusted.
Ever since, I have realized "admitting mistakes" in a public setting brings more external good (people will tend to trust you afterwards) than internal harm (feeling stupid)....