Tesla

Quote:Singapore Budget 2020: Push to promote electric vehicles in move to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles

"Our vision is to phase out ICE and have vehicles run on cleaner energy by 2040," Mr Heng said, adding that this goal is for "both public health and climate change reasons".

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/t...and-diesel

Great start. I expect the timeline to be pushed earlier over the next decade as economic realities set-in.

(vested)

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/04/pow...inds-bnef/

Powering The EV Revolution — Battery Packs Now At $156/kWh, 13% Lower Than 2018, Finds BNEF

Quote:Note that BNEF’s pricing data is based on the industry volume-weighted average, and is not intended to be representative of cost leaders such as Tesla/Panasonic, CATL, and others. Our understanding is that Tesla is already somewhere below $100/kWh at the cell level, and likely below $140/kWh at the pack level. Volkswagen has hinted that its cell prices (likely supplied by CATL, based on NCM 811 chemistry) are also below the $100/kWh level.

BNEF projects that the overall industry’s cost reductions will continue, with $100/kWh at the pack level likely to be reached by around 2023, as stated in the above tweet. This is the point at which mass market electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to reach sticker price parity with “equivalent” combustion vehicles, whilst larger vehicle classes and premium vehicles have already passed parity in several cases. All BEVs are typically already more affordable than combustion vehicles on a total-cost-of-ownership basis, due to substantial lifetime savings on fuel and maintenance costs.

Beginning of the end for Tesla?
Looks like they have to shutdown factory and still pay back their massive amount of debt.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bus...n-12550554

Tesla status update:

Tesla hits milestone in reporting a profit for its fourth straight quarter
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2...th-quarter

Tesla China July NEV Production Surpasses SGMW & BYD, Model 3 > 2nd 3rd & 4th Places Combined
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmania...s-combined

(vested)

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/electrified-ca...00621.html

Quote:Electrified car registrations overtake diesel in Europe for the first time

"Demand for gasoline and diesel cars shows double-digit drops compared to September 2019 while the volume of EVs increased by 139% to 327,800 units — a record in terms of both volume and market share. This is the first time that EVs have broken the 300,000 units monthly mark, and only the second time that they have counted for more than 20% of registrations," JATO's report said.

https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/trad...pean-party

Independent news outlets are reporting stiff competition in the electric car market in Europe. Tesla is no longer the #1 sold brand. 

https://ofv.no/registreringsstatistikk

Norway is a good leading indicator for Western European market with its EV-friendly policies. Latest figures show 60% of all vehicles sold in October were electric cars. 50% of all vehicles sold in 2020 were electric cars. Amongst the top 20 models sold in the country YTD October, the only Tesla model there is the Tesla Model 3, and it comes in at #6, behind the Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona, VW ID.3 and Audi e-tron. Of these 4 competitors, only VW ID.3 can be considered new to the market in 2020. 

Please adjust your market share estimates accordingly.

(06-11-2020, 04:03 PM)D123 Wrote: ..

Please adjust your market share estimates accordingly.

No making any forward market share estimation. I trust the management to make the best business decisions (for example, they may go with strategy similar to Apple, low market share, high profit share).

Look forward for legacy auto to transition completely to BEV, we are counting on it to combat climate change. 

(06-11-2020, 10:31 PM)Wildreamz Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 04:03 PM)D123 Wrote: ..

Please adjust your market share estimates accordingly.

No making any forward market share estimation. I trust the management to make the best business decisions (for example, they may go with strategy similar to Apple, low market share, high profit share).

Look forward for legacy auto to transition completely to BEV, we are counting on it to combat climate change. 

Just wondering...
what type of energy (eg. fossil fuel, solar, wind, etc) are u looking at to create this huge demand for electricity?

The whole value chain for EV is ready. Almost all car manufacturers have access to full EV technology.

The benefits of EV will be more than simply "climate change" - and the growth of EV sales may not have much to do with real climate benefits. Mining for rare-earth will need to first cut down forests before the mining (usually polluting) can start.
The many renewable alternatives: wind, solar, biomass, biogas... are not without their critics on climate impact. In long run usually EVs and renewable energy should be greener; but this is contestable currently.
Regardless of these, consumers respond well to the responsiveness of EV - full torque from 0rpm. (In contrast you will see max torque at say 2000 rpm in i.c.e. vehicle). Tesla S claims 0-60 miles in 2 seconds. Also, in cities like Beijing and New Delhi, zero emission and pollutants from transportation is great for air quality and noise improvements. Shifting tailpipe pollution to an industrial power plant has an advantage.

For branding, yes Tesla sounds like a green option. One can drive Tesla like a metaphorical moral-high-horse, with a risk of a snob label.

Apple and Tesla both have a cult following.
For Tesla to Apple comparison:
- You had to choose Mac or PC - many incompatibilities in soft/hardware were built in as strategy. Can Tesla do this trick, and if this trick makes sense? Tesla opened its Charging stations for other cars, but not very well received. Unlike Apple devices that are paid by customers, the charging stations are paid by Tesla. Tesla has a small % revenue stream from selling energy too. Currently it has some advantages in solar and battery tech. But does it aim to be an energy provider? To do this, they have to work out the charging standard a bit. Charging for different EV usually works now, with an adaptor - for convenience sake, it's better if it's standardized.

Does Tesla want to sell energy? Can it? Tesla has less than 20% in EV but monopoly status in regions - could leverage this to grow energy business.

Does Tesla want to sell tech suh as Autopilot? As a car marker, it would not make sense to sell one of its core-competitiveness.

Is Tesla a car company or is it a tech company? It's valued like a tech growth company.
Tech growth companies can scale up and serve larger customers at a very low cost; a car company could not. If Tesla were to sell tech it has to do it before others have comparables.
A tech growth company is expected to get 50-100% of market share. Can Tesla stay competitive fending off other EV companies? Byd, Lucid for a start.
https://carbuzz.com/news/the-byd-han-ev-...-nightmare
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecroth...22e9943bd8

Not to forget traditional car manufacturers like Toyota, Honda, VW are not going to die without a fight and still have more experience in running a car company - such as services center networks.

(07-11-2020, 08:05 AM)Raks Wrote: .. in cities like Beijing and New Delhi, zero emission and pollutants from transportation is great for air quality and noise improvements. Shifting tailpipe pollution to an industrial power plant has an advantage. 

..
A tech growth company is expected to get 50-100% of market share.

..

Let me just address two specific points: simply moving air pollution out of population dense areas will save lives. And by moving away from petrol, we are no longer beholden to fossil fuels; we can start relying on the grid, which are increasingly generated from more sustainable (as well as less polluting) energy sources (https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/us-electr...id-markets).

Market share is not the most important factor to me. Apple has only 13.9% smartphone market share, but 66% (up to 90% at times) of global smartphone profit share (https://www.counterpointresearch.com/app...wish%20for.). And that's probably before software and services revenue.

Most important point is growth rate, total addressable market (TAM) and final profit margin (after brand power, economies of scale, software, services, tech know-how etc.). Which I believe Tesla, will have no issue achieving eventually. 

Again, take Apple for example, much of their profit margin is from brand-loyalty, which is due to good product execution (people loving their products), which stems from a multitude of factors (great after market warranty policy, great software experience, great software ecosystem, great hardware ecosystem, brand equity, resale value, proprietary silicon advantage, supply chain optimization, apparent social and environmental responsibility, cultural significance etc.). 

Need to see Tesla/Apple in it's totality.