Oxley Holdings

(10-04-2020, 11:35 AM)specuvestor Wrote: If they can demonstrate that they control the entities

The figures on the P & L will look very impressive  , but bottomline  ?

(10-04-2020, 12:20 PM)cfa Wrote:

(10-04-2020, 11:35 AM)specuvestor Wrote: If they can demonstrate that they control the entities

The figures on the P & L will look very impressive  , but bottomline  ?

Finance or VBs focus on cash flows. Accountants look at B/S and PnL. Auditors look at paperwork and process. 

Cash flow wise I was told that they are covered for 2020 if Caltex cash comes in, after selling UE

2HFY2020 Result as at 30 Jun 2020
Rev $638m (vs 160m)
GP  $149m (vs  37m)
Net Loss $288m (vs +62m)

FY2020 Result
Rev $1.2b (vs 0.6b)
GP  $244m (vs 138m)
Net Loss $257m (vs +95m)
Div 0.5 + 1 = 1.5cts (vs 0.68)

Construction activities halted during the “circuit-breaker’ period in Singapore and other overseas countries which affected the project progress and target completion dates. As the countries begin to resume business activities albeit cautiously, construction activities have steadily resumed at all the Group’s construction sites.

The world economy is flushed with liquidity as most central banks around the world implemented quantitative easing measures to mitigate the fallout from the pandemic. In the short-term, interest rates are expected to remain low and exchange rates to fluctuate significantly.

As at end-August 2020, the Group's total sales secured for its development portfolio amounted to $8.6 billion, of which approximately $3.5 billion and $5.1 billion were attributable to the projects in Singapore and overseas respectively 
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/OxleyFY20...eID=629699

Stay home and stay safe, everyone

Paper losses . Not real losses ...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

The latest results announcement shows non-recurring losses of $210.7 million,which includes
a $106 million "receivable of proceeds from final completion of the share sale of Oxley Beryl".

Can anyone help explain what is this receivable?

(29-08-2020, 03:26 PM)Shiyi Wrote: The latest results announcement shows non-recurring losses of $210.7 million,which includes
a $106 million "receivable of proceeds from final completion of the share sale of Oxley Beryl".

Can anyone help explain what is this receivable?

Receipt from sale of 30 Raffles less than recognised. 

And even this PR co. Never go this far to say these losses is paper losses not real losses.

After deleveraging.Oxley is even more leveraged. For every $5 of assets. Only $1 come from equity. Good news might be some underperformed asssets being sold

Based on the cash flow forecast prepared by the management, the Board has assessed that the Group will be able to meet its short-term obligations as and when the debts fall due, taking into consideration the 
(A) incoming cash flows from 
     (i) the completion of overseas projects including Royal Wharf, Dublin Landings and The Peak, 
     (ii) Singapore development projects expected to achieve TOP by the first quarter of 2021 and 
     (iii) the proposed sale of land parcels in Australia and Cambodia, as well as 

(B) the refinancing of the short-term obligations comprising asset-backed loans which is currently in progress.
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Response%...eID=631275

Stay home and stay safe, everyone.

With a mere current market cap of only $934mil ($0.22 per share), Oxley is going to recognize an estimated $2.2 billion worth of revenue (already secured) over the next 3 years, more than 2 times its current market cap. 

Has Mr Market undervalued Oxley too much because of its gearing concern?

Oxley is trading at 58% discount to RNAV of $0.52

Why Oxley is good for the next few years?

• Due to the construction delays for its projects in Singapore, Ireland, and Malaysia, as well as the deferred start of new construction sites, some of the earning for FY2020 has been deferred to FY2021 and FY2022. Hence, FY2021 (and to some extent FY2022) should see a bumper harvest in EPS. UOB analysts have raised their net profit estimates for FY21-22 by 27% and 28% respectively. UOB analysts expected EPS of 9 cents for FY2021, EPS of 4.1 cents for FY2022, and EPS of 5.1 cents for FY2023. Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 50%, expect a dividend bonanza for next 3 years.

• There will be bound to be project delays given the current situation, but Oxley is in good shape to ride out COV19 recession. There should be sufficient liquidity to cover all non-rollover maturing debts when they come due. For upcoming 2021, Oxley only needs to clear $480mil bond, which is more than sufficiently covered by earmarked proceeds from existing projects. Only corporate debts and bonds need to be paid at maturity. Project loans are only due when projects are completed and are repaid with project sales proceeds, while investment property loans are refinanced on a recurring basis.

• Oxley has additional financing avenues if needed, and is in the process of divesting non-core assets with a renewed focus on development projects. Some funding sources can be secured through (i) the group’s unbilled revenues (S$2.4bn from Singapore projects), and (ii) unencumbered hotels in Cambodia (indicative valuation S$150mn as of Feb 2020). Management is also looking to divest a land parcel in Cambodia (c.US$50m), Walker Street in Australia for S$90m (net of loans) and its 10% Aspen stake, pending group’s cash-flow situation.

• Real estate development fund. This is slated to be the next game plan for Oxley. Setting up a real estate development fund to scour for opportunities in developed, transparent markets. This is really moving up the value chain of development activities. Rather than to be encumbered by the capital-intensive nature of land development and construction cost, the risk involved is much lower because it does not stretch the balance sheet as much.

(13-09-2020, 08:48 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: With a mere current market cap of only $934mil ($0.22 per share), Oxley is going to recognize an estimated $2.2 billion worth of revenue (already secured) over the next 3 years, more than 2 times its current market cap. 

Has Mr Market undervalued Oxley too much because of its gearing concern?

Oxley is trading at 58% discount to RNAV of $0.52

Why Oxley is good for the next few years?

• Due to the construction delays for its projects in Singapore, Ireland, and Malaysia, as well as the deferred start of new construction sites, some of the earning for FY2020 has been deferred to FY2021 and FY2022. Hence, FY2021 (and to some extent FY2022) should see a bumper harvest in EPS. UOB analysts have raised their net profit estimates for FY21-22 by 27% and 28% respectively. UOB analysts expected EPS of 9 cents for FY2021, EPS of 4.1 cents for FY2022, and EPS of 5.1 cents for FY2023. Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 50%, expect a dividend bonanza for next 3 years.

• There will be bound to be project delays given the current situation, but Oxley is in good shape to ride out COV19 recession. There should be sufficient liquidity to cover all non-rollover maturing debts when they come due. For upcoming 2021, Oxley only needs to clear $480mil bond, which is more than sufficiently covered by earmarked proceeds from existing projects. Only corporate debts and bonds need to be paid at maturity. Project loans are only due when projects are completed and are repaid with project sales proceeds, while investment property loans are refinanced on a recurring basis.

• Oxley has additional financing avenues if needed, and is in the process of divesting non-core assets with a renewed focus on development projects. Some funding sources can be secured through (i) the group’s unbilled revenues (S$2.4bn from Singapore projects), and (ii) unencumbered hotels in Cambodia (indicative valuation S$150mn as of Feb 2020). Management is also looking to divest a land parcel in Cambodia (c.US$50m), Walker Street in Australia for S$90m (net of loans) and its 10% Aspen stake, pending group’s cash-flow situation.

• Real estate development fund. This is slated to be the next game plan for Oxley. Setting up a real estate development fund to scour for opportunities in developed, transparent markets. This is really moving up the value chain of development activities. Rather than to be encumbered by the capital-intensive nature of land development and construction cost, the risk involved is much lower because it does not stretch the balance sheet as much.

Interesting facts. Last 3 yrs. Oxley rained in over 3B in revenues with about 100M of net. 

If I use the same reasoning. Then Oxley trade at close to 27X PE. Base on historical results has MR MARKET overvalued Oxley?

Since it's so lumpy, you shouldn't use P/E to value it. In fact for such cases, you want to buy when the P/E is high and sell when it's low (generally, not referring to Oxley).

The problem I see is they are so leveraged and they have development projects in multiple countries.