Accordia Golf Trusts

(02-01-2020, 05:15 PM)ghchua Wrote:

(02-01-2020, 03:57 PM)Mushy Wrote: From Marissa Lee twitter.
"As part of the offer, Accordia Golf also intends to assume the holding company's debt, including the 26.2 billion yen of deferred tax liabilities that it has on its balance sheet."

While I believe most can assume this part, AGT should have made this clarification publicly.
Or did Miss Lee assumed herself. And of course, AGT is not a reit.

The announcement only said it intends to assume the debt of the holding company that holds all the golf courses. There are debt and other liabilities in the balance sheet (including lease liabilities, deferred tax liabilities, membership deposits etc). 

So, it is subject to interpretation. I believed that Ms Lee is making the assumption that deferred tax liabilities is included in the amount. If you do not agree, just take that amount off in your computation.

Sorry my mistake, i missed quoting the key sentence that Miss Lee seems to be saying that AGT had told BT exclusively that the debts included the deferred tax liabilities. I have edited my original post.

so they sold these for 97 cents back in 2014 and now offer 71 cents to buy them back ? How generous  

Wow, things are getting hot with the 2nd biggest shareholder Hibuki (Jap Fund Manager) increasing its stake by 1% to 7.2%

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM3-Hi...eID=594953

I cannot see the file that details the trades over the period. From this notification form, I can only summarise that Hibiki purchased a net 11,003,000 units at avg 63.2 cents per unit over the period 30 Nov 2018 to 30 Jan 2020. Don't know if they were selling/buying during the period when the current offer came in, or during the past 2 weeks with the coronavirus situation growing.

I have sold a majority of my units over the past week due only to 1 reason which is the current coronavirus situation. I believe it will negatively impact AGT business performance in the short term and also the offerer's actions since it is non-binding. Also, at the portfolio level, I needed more cash in case opportunities arise. AGT was the obvious candidate to sell in my portfolio due to it being near to valuation (my own). I would have been happy to continue to just do nothing even if there is no offer.

I had been keenly watching AGT for developments and there was not much updates on the offer or its industry. I was always keen to invest again at a right price. Historical lows were around 48 sg cents per unit.
The recent Feb players number surprised me. It was a historical high (for the month of Feb) over its listing history. The Jan number was also a high. This is surprising as I thought Japan had it really bad in Feb as it was one of the early table topper and also due to the Diamond princess cruise liner case. So did the jap folks come out in droves to play golf which is a healthy outdoor activity and is compliant with social distancing? The Jan numbers and the quarter in Oct-Dec19 seem to suggest that numbers were already growing. If we take into account this was in comparison over the same months over the past 5 years, we can assume the weather impact is not the culprit.
Now to me, the offer is not critical anymore. Even the parents walk away, the fact they were interested at a certain price should be a positive factor better than none. Cancellation of Tokyo Olympics? Recent news seem to suggest the Jap organisers seem to be more receptive that it may not happen in as scheduled but a postponement seems more likely than totally cancelled.
With these developments and some crazy sale this morning, I have started to accumulate AGT again. (third time since IPO)

I have been very careful in purchasing more AGT units, as I was still wary of the Feb visitor numbers.
I emailed AGT to enquire and they highlighted 2 reasons why Feb 2020 numbers were good:

1. 2020 is a leap year and so Feb 2020 gains 1 more opr day which includes an additional saturday which is usually a good day for visitors. So there were 5 saturdays in Feb 2020 compared to 4 in the previous few years since listing.

2. Weather was good.

I also has been trying to read up more on Japanese sentiments and situation from Covid19. I am not Japanese and have no links to Japan or Japanese people so I might not be expertly familiar with their situation. It is purely base on internet reading. I conclude that in Feb the golf situation was not really impacted and this has been proven by AGT Feb 2020 numbers. However Mar 2020 may not be as great. Perhaps there might still be a small % increase or flattish, we shall see next week when they report.

However Apr onwards should see more negative impact as Japan has also started to see more infected cases and the sentiment of Japanese folks seem more negative now. As of today, golf courses in Japan has not been ordered to close. I see golf courses in some other countries has been directly or indirectly ordered to close due to covid19. The japanese govt seem to be quite apprehensive on locking down cities so far. Just like the way they were initially dragging their feet on the postponement of Olympics, the inevitable happens. Perhaps we shall have the chance to acquire more units below 40 cents?

Nowadays machine translation is quite good. One way to get some Japanese perspective (if you don't read Japanese):
1. Use Chrome and search for "ゴルフ業界" under the google news.
2. Right click and select [Translate to English] to translate the results.
3. Click on any link you find interesting and once again, right click and select [Translate to English] to read the article.
The result will not be in the Queen's English, but still good enough to get the rough gist.

This afternoon, the trust announced the impact on their business due to the state of emergency declared in Japan last week. While it is not drastic, there is material impact. Affected include some of the top courses in the trust, restaurants closed (25% of last FY revenue), etc.

The sponsor had made those announcements publicly last week on 8th/11th Apr on their website.

Trading halt.

Stay home and stay save, everyone.

A ~5% increase in sale price. In addition, the sale price is not affected by any cash distribution declared after the takeover announcement date (the typical takeover will always use any distributions after announcement date to offset the offer price).

It is good for OPMIs when there is a bigger brother who has interests aligned to you, and has the capacity and wits to act against their own country men.

UPDATE TO THE PROPOSED DIVESTMENT OF ACCORDIA GOLF TRUST’S INTERESTS IN ALL OF ITS GOLF COURSES

The purchase consideration to be received by the Trustee-Manager for the Proposed Divestment has been increased from a fixed amount of JPY 61,800 million (approximately S$804.1 million 1 ) to a fixed amount of JPY 65,200 million (approximately S$848.4 million) (the “Revised Purchase Consideration”), an increase of JPY 3,400 million (approximately S$44.2 million)

Update on proposed divestment: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT-Updat...eID=626900


Hibuki's rebut on 3th July: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2...Divestment

Such three fee items, combined, amounts to 50-63% of EBITDA each year, which is substantial, and we would like to request parent company to share such synergies with the minority unitholders by paying a certain level of “control premium” to NAV in order to facilitate the transaction. We believe this to be a reasonable argument AGTM can bring up in its negotiation with the parent company