29-03-2020, 04:11 PM (This post was last modified: 29-03-2020, 04:13 PM by Curiousparty.)
(29-03-2020, 10:40 AM)donmihaihai Wrote:
(23-03-2020, 02:01 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Most of its properties are sold out or largely sold out. Cash flow coming in and this is highly visible .
U can either visit the showroom and check with agents or look at Oxley recent corporate presentation .
The High gearing is understandable because of the nature of property development .
Let me give one simple analogy . A young couple takes a 80% loan and pays 20% equity. The gearing ratio is 4.
If most of the projects are already sold out , cash flow are flowing in . Upon TOP, more cash flow will flow in .
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Everything should be good when the sky is clear and sunny and cash keep flowing. The only problem is when sales and/or construction slowed. What Oxley is trying to do is to turn their projects fast with low gross margin ( way lower than other developers). If the projects stop turning...……..
Base on latest presentation, local projects 58% sold, overseas launched projects 49% sold and another 8,351 GDV yet to launch(overseas). Doesn't look like largely sold out.
Look at interest coverage, using operating cashflow before changes in working capital (ok give Oxley a break rather than use the lousy cashflow after working capital and also this reflect Oxley earnings), 1HFY20 is about 1X. FY19 about 0.5X and FY18 about 1X.
Basically excluding associates and JV(which are also highly leverage), Oxley operating earnings in the past 2.5 years was unable to meet the interest payments. shortfall is mainly make up by taking on more debts, and sell assets, sell shares etc.
Compared with Bukit Sembawang, Oxley Holdings is a radically different entity. Despite its relatively short history, Oxley has been a trailblazer in the local property scene. It rode the first wave of “shoebox” apartment units and popularised strata industrial and commercial projects. Now, under executive chairman Ching Chiat Kwong, Oxley has been going after increasingly large residential projects; it has also turned much of its attention to growth markets overseas as sentiment towards Singapore real estate is dampened by government cooling measures.
For the most recent quarter ended June 30, Oxley reported an 80% decline in earnings to $35.8 million, on lower project sales and higher forex costs. Revenue fell 57% y-o-y to $100.4 million.
Still, Oxley shareholders can look forward to a certain level of visibility. As at June 30, the group had a total unbilled contract value of $3.9 billion, of which $2.2 billion was attributable to the projects in Singapore. The remaining $1.7 billion would be from overseas projects. In a clear indication of how Oxley is able to make efficient use of its capital, its ROE for the three years used to measure this year’s BDC was a sector-leading 24.27%.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
29-03-2020, 04:31 PM (This post was last modified: 29-03-2020, 04:32 PM by Curiousparty.)
(29-03-2020, 08:28 AM)Curiousparty Wrote: Among the conditions for completion of the deal struck between the two parties on 29 April is that Oxley must complete a $100 million refurbishment of the skyscraper formerly known as Chevron House and find a buyer for the building podium.
Not sure if Oxley can fully close the deal on the Chevron House if it cannot buy a buyer for the building podium?
Outlook
Strong cash flow visibility The company expects to receive a total of c.S$3.3bn cash-flow from total unbilled revenue, with S$1bn of that within the next 2 years.
This will consist of (i) profits from Dublin Landings Residential B and E to be completed by 3Q2020; (ii) c.US$250mn in November to December 2020 from the Royal Wharf completion, provided 100% sold (95% sold as of 1H20); (iii) US$70-100mn from The Peak, ranging mid-2020 to early 2021, (iv) Singapore project TOPs and (v) the remaining S$300mn from the Chevron House sale by May to Jun this year.
Singapore Effective future progress billings due to Oxley of c.S$1.4bn, to be paid progressively through project construction stages from 2020 to 2023. These cash flows will come from 3 projects to TOP and be completed by 3Q to 4Q this year, The Verandah (4Q20), The Addition (2Q20) and Sixteen35 Residences (4Q20). As well as S$300mn from Chevron house, with management hoping to conclude banking hall and retail deals in the next couple of weeks.
Revenue from Singapore made up c.26.5% of total revenue and c79.0% of non-current assets in FY2019. In property development sales, management said they are selling 7-8 units on average per week, despite the Covid-19 situation.
Hotels include Novotel and Mercure on Stevens. These bring in c.S$40mn of annual recurring income to the group. Asset value is c.S$1bn should they wish to liquidate. c.S$603mn of investment property debt will be refinanced perpetually.
Overseas Management guides cash flow of c.S$900mn from effective future progress billings to be received over the next 3 years.
UK For the Royal Wharf, of the total 3,400 units, 150 units balance are unsold. Management hopes to sell 50 or more units by this March, resulting in a balance of less than 100 units unsold. After Boris’ government was elected, the group saw a surge in property purchases in London, and seeks to engage the market more.
Ireland In Ireland, Dublin Landings is left with 270 apartments to be completed by July to September this year, which will bring in more cash flow. The announced divestment of No.3 Dublin Landings for EUR115mn (S$174mn) on 16 December 2019 has been received.
Cambodia For The Peak, office towers are 100% sold, residential c.90% sold and retail c.70% sold
Malaysia Oxley Towers Kuala Lumpur only c.20% sold, about c.RM400-500mn worth. Sales are guided to be weak, and construction cost is estimated to amount to c.RM900mn (c.S$300mn), which the group will fund itself without construction loans. As the construction period is about 3 years, construction costs will average about S$100mn, which management states is manageable.
No intention to purchase new landbank Management does not intend to buy new landbank. They will allocate S$200-250mn in FY20 for construction of existing land bank to ensure cash flow and income visibility onwards from FY2024 to FY2025. These landbanks include those in Connolly Station (Ireland), Deanston Wharf (London), The Garage (Cambodia) and Hamlet Watertown (Vietnam). Construction timelines will be based on presale performance.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
(29-03-2020, 03:28 PM)oys-ter Wrote: But I can see the company doing a lot of share buyback and director buying alot of share in the open market. If oxley going to collapse, it is unlikely that the director are buying so much share right?
Strong insider buying from management. We believe that the strong insider buying from the management over the past year is one of the best indicators as to whether the management has faith in the company. Figure 9 shows that management has opted to take shares as dividends, vs shares after the script dividend has been implemented. In addition, management has also been strongly buying Oxley shares in the open market – the last purchase was made on 7 Jun, worth SGD0.514m at SGD0.308/unit. Over just a 1-year period, a combination of SGD40.1m worth of shares at an average price of SGD0.30 has been bought or selected as script dividend by the insiders.
this was back in June 2019.
[I am not here to promote any stocks. Please always do your own research before embarking on any investment decision. I will not be liable for any of your own decisions. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk. It is your responsibility to ensure that any products, services or information meet your specific requirements. I do not produce material which meets the objectives of any specific financial and risk profile of investors.]
so locally Oxley sold from 58% to 71% from Feb to Mar 19. pretty good.
What about overseas? GDV from overseas is higher than local and with $8B total GDV yet to launch. exclude them is selective counting. Oxley gross profit margin for development property is low and I think it need to sell at least 80% to breakeven at GP level.
Talking about unbilled revenues or proceeds from sales of units without cost is also selective counting. Anyway it is always the case, on how much proceeds from sold units BUT look back to the interest coverage for last 2.5 years which also mean that operating profits below interest payment. Clearly shown in cashflow statement for last 2.5 yrs.
30-03-2020, 10:54 AM (This post was last modified: 30-03-2020, 11:30 AM by money.)
(29-03-2020, 03:28 PM)oys-ter Wrote: But I can see the company doing a lot of share buyback and director buying alot of share in the open market. If oxley going to collapse, it is unlikely that the director are buying so much share right?
This is the most dangerous assumption you can ever make. Never rely on *management* to make your decision. There are many people who dont know how to think, they think taking on huge debt is like playing toys.
(23-03-2020, 02:01 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: Most of its properties are sold out or largely sold out. Cash flow coming in and this is highly visible .
U can either visit the showroom and check with agents or look at Oxley recent corporate presentation .
The High gearing is understandable because of the nature of property development .
Let me give one simple analogy . A young couple takes a 80% loan and pays 20% equity. The gearing ratio is 4.
If most of the projects are already sold out , cash flow are flowing in . Upon TOP, more cash flow will flow in .
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Everything should be good when the sky is clear and sunny and cash keep flowing. The only problem is when sales and/or construction slowed. What Oxley is trying to do is to turn their projects fast with low gross margin ( way lower than other developers). If the projects stop turning...……..
Base on latest presentation, local projects 58% sold, overseas launched projects 49% sold and another 8,351 GDV yet to launch(overseas). Doesn't look like largely sold out.
Look at interest coverage, using operating cashflow before changes in working capital (ok give Oxley a break rather than use the lousy cashflow after working capital and also this reflect Oxley earnings), 1HFY20 is about 1X. FY19 about 0.5X and FY18 about 1X.
Basically excluding associates and JV(which are also highly leverage), Oxley operating earnings in the past 2.5 years was unable to meet the interest payments. shortfall is mainly make up by taking on more debts, and sell assets, sell shares etc.
Compared with Bukit Sembawang, Oxley Holdings is a radically different entity. Despite its relatively short history, Oxley has been a trailblazer in the local property scene. It rode the first wave of “shoebox” apartment units and popularised strata industrial and commercial projects. Now, under executive chairman Ching Chiat Kwong, Oxley has been going after increasingly large residential projects; it has also turned much of its attention to growth markets overseas as sentiment towards Singapore real estate is dampened by government cooling measures.
For the most recent quarter ended June 30, Oxley reported an 80% decline in earnings to $35.8 million, on lower project sales and higher forex costs. Revenue fell 57% y-o-y to $100.4 million.
Still, Oxley shareholders can look forward to a certain level of visibility. As at June 30, the group had a total unbilled contract value of $3.9 billion, of which $2.2 billion was attributable to the projects in Singapore. The remaining $1.7 billion would be from overseas projects. In a clear indication of how Oxley is able to make efficient use of its capital, its ROE for the three years used to measure this year’s BDC was a sector-leading 24.27%.
ROE is a function of margin, asset turnover and leverage. Oxley also has the industry leading assets to equity ratio. Over 4X for past 3 years. Meaning only 25% of the assets are funded by equity. CDL which has the industry lowest ROE in the table has average ratio of 1.7X. Which mean that about 60% of total assets are funded by equity. If adjust Oxley to the same ratio as CDL without other adjustment then, Oxley ROE will reduced to close to 7%. Debt is the booster there. Of course CDL has the industry leading interest coverage ratio while Oxley barely cover interest payment in last 2 years with their operating profit when ignore fair value gain.
Next property companies earning depend very much on how they account their number. For CDL, the way it account for their hotel and investment properties is punishing for their reported earnings.
Since I am at this, let look back to Oxley presentation in Jan 2017. https://www.oxley.com.sg/download/201701...1586258126
its say it has unbilled contract of $2.6B. Page 1
What happened to FY2018 and FY2019 or 1HFY2020? Worst years in Oxley listed history if I am not wrong and saved mainly by fair value gain.
What matter is not the unbilled contract amount but how much Oxley is able to convert the current $2.4B to the bottom line.
The Board of Directors of Oxley Holdings Limited (the "Company", and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”) refers to the announcement on 6 April 2020 of the press release entitled “Oxley Holdings achieves sales targets for Singapore projects” (the “Press Release”). It was stated in the press release that the Group had S$2.4 billion worth of secured revenue that had yet to be recognised. The Company wishes to clarify that the said amount included the unbilled contract value of the Group’s joint ventures and associates (in line with the Company’s disclosures in section 10 of its past results announcements). The Company accounts for the financial results of these joint ventures and associates using the equity method of accounting in the Company’s financial statements.
Thought only subsidiaries , not associates can be used by the equity method ?
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
If they can demonstrate that they control the entities
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Homepage
PR Newswire
