Covid-19

(13-03-2020, 03:38 AM)sillyivan Wrote: The worst news travel the fastest, so I'm here to bring some balance and hope to people.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/unite...d-from-bug

Also, if anyone is interested, below is a tracker that's being updated frequently on covid19 statistics.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard...7b48e9ecf6

Everyone's keeping out on the "Total Confirmed" cases, but few are keeping track of "Total Recovered".

Wrong, I am keeping an eye on CFR case fatality rate. Many will recover is a given, real problem is how many will die?

(12-03-2020, 11:16 PM)weijian Wrote: Covid-19 now a non-event in Nordic countries

Of the 76 cases detected in Iceland, none have required hospitalisation; in Norway, only a handful of the 277 cases have been admitted to hospital.

This is partly due to a number of sociological and demographic factors, said experts.

The Nordics have a population that is generally healthy and vaccinated against illnesses; there is also universal health care, not much industrial pollution and not many are smokers, said Oystein Olsvik, a professor of medical microbiology at Tromso University in northern Norway.

"The Scandinavian population is generally less susceptible to this kind of illness that can develop in densely-populated regions of China," he added.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technol...-countries

Its all the cod liver oil those fellas are consuming. Since they get minimal sunlight for many parts of the year, they get their boost of Vit D/omegas from the CLO and fatty fish they eat. Vit.D has been shown in some studies to be a good immune booster against viruses. and fish omega3s reduce inflammation which is what causes severe ARDS in respiratory illnesses requiring hospital care.

Time to stock up on some Nordic Naturals CLO.

(17-03-2020, 10:20 AM)AQ. Wrote: Quite a good summary from Goldmans. Nothing really surprising, but i bolded the pt i agreed most wholeheartedly with:

• 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
  
• 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
  
• Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
  
• The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
  
• Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
  
• Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
  
• There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
  
• China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
  
• Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
  
• S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
  
• There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
  
• In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
  
• Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
  
• There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11 than it does like 2008.
  

Think this is a good summary but I'm not sure about the systemic risk yet cause governments are scrambling to basically contain the 3rd order contagion (especially financial) impact. VIX hit GFC levels. And also China capacity is ramping up to 90% levels so I don't think will take 6 months to recover. There are more than a dozen provinces supposedly free from cases. Problem is whether global demand will recover fast enough for companies to survive.

This might be a good positive first step to understand the similarities with flu vs just anecdotal evidence: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51921403

(The crash is ONLY starting.... my two cents worth)

China is ramping up production but sell to who....when you have Euro in lockdown and possible US too....

Economic Affairs: Why the Covid-19 financial crisis will get worse
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/eco...-get-worse


Gundlach says it’s ‘ludicrous’ to think US won’t enter a recession as coronavirus hits economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gundlach...onomy.html

Containing coronavirus: lessons from Asia
https://www.ft.com/content/e015e096-6532...c063ad52a5

Not sure if this has been shared but this site is very comprehensive with their covid-19 data + graphs

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

(18-03-2020, 01:29 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: (The crash is ONLY starting.... my two cents worth)

China is ramping up production but sell to who....when you have Euro in lockdown and possible US too....

Economic Affairs: Why the Covid-19 financial crisis will get worse
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/eco...-get-worse


Gundlach says it’s ‘ludicrous’ to think US won’t enter a recession as coronavirus hits economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gundlach...onomy.html

 S & P 500 correction in 2008 was -48%. Today is at -29.5. Maybe -35% we're looking at? Doubtful that it'll crash similar to the the financial crisis?

(19-03-2020, 05:55 AM)BrendonA Wrote:

(18-03-2020, 01:29 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: (The crash is ONLY starting.... my two cents worth)

China is ramping up production but sell to who....when you have Euro in lockdown and possible US too....

Economic Affairs: Why the Covid-19 financial crisis will get worse
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/eco...-get-worse


Gundlach says it’s ‘ludicrous’ to think US won’t enter a recession as coronavirus hits economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gundlach...onomy.html

 S & P 500 correction in 2008 was -48%. Today is at -29.5. Maybe -35% we're looking at? Doubtful that it'll crash similar to the the financial crisis?

 
Its gonna be worse than GFC as the deleveraging will be more. Now is just initial reaction to the virus news. Later will go lower when numbers are out for March to June quarters and we start seeing a wave of business bankruptcy.

(19-03-2020, 05:55 AM)BrendonA Wrote:  S & P 500 correction in 2008 was -48%. Today is at -29.5. Maybe -35% we're looking at? Doubtful that it'll crash similar to the the financial crisis?

hi BrendonA,
Not sure of the intent of your posting - to get social proof or seek advice for a potential bottom?

In anyways, I think it might not be wise to have any numbers, to which it eventually creates some sort of referencing and hence we fall into the anchoring effect. Example, If we anchor to last purchased prices, there is a good chance we will be catching failing knives with every drop (averaging down). If we anchor to some past lesson learnt, then we could be missing out on good prices.

So actually, i don't have an answer to your question
Generally when i am not wise enough to seek the correct answer, i try to invert and ask myself what NOT to do instead. So by excluding what not to do, i hope i get lucky and closer to the correct action/s to take.

That said, i think one important aspect that we commonly forgot is to ensure that our own circumstances are condusive to stock buying in current environment. This includes ensuring our risk of getting directly affected by Covid-19 is low - (1) personal or closest family infected by Covid-19, (2) losing our job (if one is employed) and (3) enough liquidity to pay the bills to stay in the game (if one is an employer)

I'm actually quite optimistic of the current situation, and have been buying more as the market rout deepens on select counters with strong balance sheets and good cash generation.

I don't think the market priced in the possibility that a cheap and accessible drug could be available in short order.

Some of the most hopeful candidates (there are several) is this recent discovery by Professor Didier Raoult (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Raoult), some resource:

(1) Full Paper: https://www.researchhub.com/paper/331/full

(2) Reddit Discussion: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comment...ycin_as_a/

(3) In short, 100% of subjects in a controlled, non-randomized initial trial recovered from the infection within 6 days:


Results were promising, but has limitations (too few subject, controlled, non-random).

(4) France is currently conducting independent, extended, clinical trials: https://bgr.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-t...s-promise/

Expect results to be out in a few weeks.