Penguin International

(10-03-2020, 08:15 PM)Shiyi Wrote:

(09-03-2020, 05:45 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: The big boys bought this stock and push it up from 40++ to 70 cents. Then good results are announced. Guess it was a good time to offload. Now with the sudden bearish sentiment, the stock suffers a steep fall as big boys cut their stake to protect their capital....I think they are still in the money so they might continue to sell if they are able to...

My two cents worth....

How do you come to that conclusion? Based on inference or guessing?
From the volume over the past months, it doesn't seem to have "big boys" involved.
Even when the price dropped recently, the volume was quite small.

You need to look at penguin's chart.  If I remember correctly, the volume and price starts to move during early 2019. Then it stabilise around close to 50 cents before the next surge. Then cheer leaders start to appear.... 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busines...rice%3famp

Personally I think the best time to buy a stock is when there is little volume and you know there will be a change in market perception in the company due to improve performance by the company. OR in the case of penguin, able to get a rough estimate of the price the big boys are holding. Normally in a sudden crash, the big boys cannot offload all their stake so they need to do a second round, so if you can buy cheaper than their cost and the fundamentals of the company does not change, you might get a free ride when they push again. For penguin case, if the fundamentals does not deteriorate, a good trading buy will be below 30. By the way, the big boys might hold stocks for years and wait for the right timing as in the case of sunright. I guess the big boys there are still holding some stocks from the last surge when it hits $1.13 although their costs are much lower

End of discussion for me.

Many Singapore counters cannot survive a global meltdown. Even Sembmarine has seen its business dry up. Penguin has survived relatively well and hope it can withstand this current downturn. It is a very tough environment to run a business.

In the O&G space it is indeed very difficult to run the business, however the opposite is not true in property space. Till now there are many Singaporeans happily snapping up property units and investing seminars encouraging people to sign up into REIT like schemes to co-own countless properties while taking advantage of the low interest environment.

Different business segment is indeed struggling such as construction and O&G but not others. Focusing on O&G space, I do feel all producers (except the inland oil rigs) are going to lower their business activity. It will be important to take out old notes that has been discussed here such as the various segments present in oil exploration and production: I) Onshore (land) drilling, ii) Shallow Water Oil Wells, iii) Deep water oil wells and iv) Shale.

Each segment have their own breakeven levels in oil production. As we are going to face an oil environment whose price is in the US$40 range, it is time to ask which segment will produce less and which segment will cover up its gap. This will affect our investment thesis

Penguin's latest vessel specs..
http://www.penguin.com.sg/vessel-specs/

I suppose better and faster boats will stand to enjoy greater customer demand/support even if market conditions turn tougher.

(11-03-2020, 09:16 PM)CY09 Wrote: In the O&G space it is indeed very difficult to run the business, however the opposite is not true in property space. Till now there are many Singaporeans happily snapping up property units and investing seminars encouraging people to sign up into REIT like schemes to co-own countless properties while taking advantage of the low interest environment.

Different business segment is indeed struggling such as construction and O&G but not others. Focusing on O&G space, I do feel all producers (except the inland oil rigs) are going to lower their business activity. It will be important to take out old notes that has been discussed here such as the various segments present in oil exploration and production: I) Onshore (land) drilling, ii) Shallow Water Oil Wells, iii) Deep water oil wells and iv) Shale.

Each segment have their own breakeven levels in oil production. As we are going to face an oil environment whose price is in the US$40 range, it is time to ask which segment will produce less and which segment will cover up its gap. This will affect our investment thesis

It would be great if you can discuss the above! My impression is that onshore drilling is the cheapest to run and comes with the least abandonment costs. Would be great to hear your views.

It is quite interesting to note that at this moment, forumners have to come here to help the company advertise its products

On 20Mar20, Chairman Jeffrey Hing added 3,459,300 shares for S$1,245,348.00, or $0.36/share. This purchase raised his interest to 46,792,849 shares, or 21.25%.
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM1_FI...eID=601787

Looks like Penguin's Management has entered into a good deal and secured a much larger fabrication space (than the current one) at a low price. This will give them much more flexibility and potential to take on even bigger projects.

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...34850d0155

(09-04-2020, 10:27 PM)boomaroo Wrote: Looks like Penguin's Management has entered into a good deal and secured a much larger fabrication space (than the current one) at a low price. This will give them much more flexibility and potential to take on even bigger projects.

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...34850d0155

Indeed Penguin has gotten a good buy for 21 Tuas Rd by paying only USD1.4m now, together with a fresh 20-year lease renewal from JTC. 
Swissco bought the same property in 2014 for $16.2m with a shorter remaining lease then..

http://www.swissco.net/wp-content/upload...317_en.pdf

Another perspective

Results in 2019 were good because of the delivery of vessels for Australia and SCDF.

Given the current large stimulus of all governments due to covid19, would it be possible that such vessel orders would dry up in the years to come? Governments will be busy trying to balance their budgets, repair their balance sheets.

And let's not forget, the oil companies are still struggling