Covid-19

Realized most of Covid-19 (or Wuhan virus) has been mainly discussed/updated in the "China Economic News" thread. For the past week, it is quite clear that the rest of the world is going to experience de ja vu on what mainland PRC has experienced in late Jan/early Feb. Starting a new Covid-19 thread for non-country specific discussion on Covid-19.

Morgan Housel is one of my fav philo-vestor and i thought his "washing hands" advice is very useful. On another level, I thought that the lesson behind "washing hands" is also something that I could reflect deeper on - "What is my simple solution to this complex crisis that involves multidisciplinary viewpoints?"

Corona Panic

“Wash your hands” might be the best advice at this point. That’s what I hear, at least. But it’s too simple for some people to take seriously. The idea that complex problems can benefit from simple solutions isn’t intuitive.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/corona/

S’pore study finds Covid-19 patients extensively contaminate their surroundings
https://mothership.sg/2020/03/covid-19-c...ion-study/

Why did a ‘cured’ coronavirus patient die in China? His widow wants answers
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...idow-wants


美國各州疫情告急竟缺檢測盒! 醫療物資短缺一"罩"難求人心惶惶? 疫情當前美國公衛系統也面臨挑戰...│記者 賴彥宏│【國際大現場】20200306│三立新聞台
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KtBZOzM0YRU

Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020

Here is a note that we sent to Sequoia founders and CEOs today to provide guidance on how to ensure the health of their business while dealing with potential business consequences of the spreading effects of the coronavirus.

https://medium.com/sequoia-capital/coron...72bdeb9753

what a diff a month can make. the west part of the map will become redder in the days to come. time for the US to walk the talk w their alleged superior healthcare system.

(08-03-2020, 04:16 PM)BRT Wrote: what a diff a month can make. the west part of the map will become redder in the days to come. time for the US to walk the talk w their alleged superior healthcare system.

Americans gone case now except for those end of world preppers. They only jist shipped out the million test kits with delay this week. By next week it wont matter anymore. Washjngton DC first case liao, soon u will see trump in hazmat suit.

Having said that, j expect resurgence in china especially their manufacturing provinces like guangdong.

(04-03-2020, 07:24 AM)weijian Wrote: Realized most of Covid-19 (or Wuhan virus) has been mainly discussed/updated in the "China Economic News" thread. For the past week, it is quite clear that the rest of the world is going to experience de ja vu on what mainland PRC has experienced in late Jan/early Feb. Starting a new Covid-19 thread for non-country specific discussion on Covid-19.

Morgan Housel is one of my fav philo-vestor and i thought his "washing hands" advice is very useful. On another level, I thought that the lesson behind "washing hands" is also something that I could reflect deeper on - "What is my simple solution to this complex crisis that involves multidisciplinary viewpoints?"

Corona Panic

“Wash your hands” might be the best advice at this point. That’s what I hear, at least. But it’s too simple for some people to take seriously. The idea that complex problems can benefit from simple solutions isn’t intuitive.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/corona/

Wash hands just helps with surface spread. U also need facemasks as u can be infective to others without symptoms. Also eye protection. The only reason govs say wash hands dun wear mask is just becoz they have shortage for hospitals.

(08-03-2020, 05:26 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Wash hands just helps with surface spread. U also need facemasks as u can be infective to others without symptoms. Also eye protection. The only reason govs say wash hands dun wear mask is just becoz they have shortage for hospitals.

hi BlueKelah,
i hope you were not this person depicted (abit forgot the mask/goggles at home) https://www.mothership.sg/2020/03/hazmat...n-airport/ .... Jokes aside, you are right in the sense (and i would do the same) that we need the "full gear" if we are in the epicenter of Covid-19, ie. Wuhan.

That said, Italy has locked down part of their country, communist style, and it just bodes well for all of us as the rest of the countries are able to learn from China.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/a...ks_for_you

Ray Dalio's thoughts about Covid-19

My Thoughts About the Coronavirus

Three Perspectives

As I see it there are three different things going on that are related yet are very different and shouldn’t be confused: 1) the virus, 2) the economic impact of reactions to the virus, and 3) the market action.  They all will be affected by highly emotional reactions. Individually and together they lend themselves to a giant whipsaw with big mispricings, with the off chance that it will trigger the downturn that I have been worried would happen with both the big wealth/political gap and the end of the big debt cycle (when debts are high and central banks are impotent in trying to stimulate).

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-though...ticle_view

(08-03-2020, 10:18 PM)weijian Wrote:

(08-03-2020, 05:26 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Wash hands just helps with surface spread. U also need facemasks as u can be infective to others without symptoms. Also eye protection. The only reason govs say wash hands dun wear mask is just becoz they have shortage for hospitals.

hi BlueKelah,
i hope you were not this person depicted (abit forgot the mask/goggles at home) https://www.mothership.sg/2020/03/hazmat...n-airport/ .... Jokes aside, you are right in the sense (and i would do the same) that we need the "full gear" if we are in the epicenter of Covid-19, ie. Wuhan.

That said, Italy has locked down part of their country, communist style, and it just bodes well for all of us as the rest of the countries are able to learn from China.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/a...ks_for_you

I dont think the Italians were learning from China. I think the spread was just getting too out of hand (1200 new cases a day) and due to their elderly population death rate spiking up too fast and sick overwhelming hospitals, as is expected in a non lock down situation. And if not locked down, its just gonna spread from northern italy all the way down to ROME capital pretty fast where the top politicians and financial centers are. Of course with the high death rate and high rate of severe illness requiring high level hospital care, the authorities realise that its not jst another seasonal flu they can allow to just spread through the population.

I expect similar thing to happen in USA, now that Washington D.C. has its first case and its getting to close to the white house for comfort. Next week when all the million plus test kits start getting used countrywide, we gonna see a spectacular spike in new cases in America. Next minute we gonna see trump in a mask or hazmat suit and start building walls around affected cities.


I love ray dalio. I actually bought a couple 10oz cast bars the other day as an insurance policy after hearing him talk about how central banks are printing too much with rates too low and we might be going back to gold standard. I firmly believe this virus is the black swan trigger we been waiting for  Next few months gold and mask makers like 3M company likely to outperform everything else. There will be a big correction crash in bubble assets like property stocks bonds I reckon.

Highly recommend watching this british fellow, he has been covering and explaining things about COVID-19 since it first started in Jan. No nonsense, evidence based.
Nurse Educator PhD - Dr. John Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5_yExFZFYw