No Signboard Holdings

How much NSB is worth is based on how well it can execute its business strategies/expansion, in my opinion.

The beer business it is trying to break into is definitely struggling. This is because the beer is NSB's own brand and if NSB wants to market it, it has to expand the offering beyond its own restaurants. Otherwise, it is going to have a limited audience. Furthermore, whenever patrons go to a place, they already have a definite beer in mind (1864, Guinness , tiger etc). In my opinion, it requires a lot of marketing expenses which NSB being a short business is short of.

The "Ma2shop" is NSB vending food business, have tried at Tampines and it is not really nice. I would prefer walking across the road a bit more to the coffee shop for warmer food. In my opinion, they should have marketed it in areas where there are less food eateries, otherwise currently their target audience are late night patrons who do not have coffee shops to go to (which again is a relatively small market)

It is hard to value NSB, but in my opinion, a good gauge will be based on 15x P/E or free cash flow for the resiliency of its food business.

(11-11-2017, 10:55 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Nice summary

IMHO No signboard also seems No Clue. They are also looking to expand to heartlands which I'm not sure they can maintain quality. Their franchise model for Geylang seems strange and looking to franchise in China. They just bought Draft Denmark in June, just Before 9M17 and already looking to invest into own brewery

Agree their trajectory is not comparable to Jumbo

They are keeping the cash cow and passing risk of new ventures to investors. Unless the new ventures turn profitable, no point spending time

No Signboard Diversifies into Singapore’s Hot Pot Market, Securing Franchise Rights for a Well-known Hot Pot Restaurant Brand - 小肥羊 ("Little Sheep")

Highlights :
* No Signboard intends to open the first outlet by early 2019 while targeting to open at least one outlet per year over the next five years
* The hot pot business will add diversity to the Group’s restaurant business
* Little Sheep is known for its delicious soup base that is made from 36 spices and Mongolian lamb delicacies.

No Signboard Holdings Ltd. (“無招牌控股有限公司”) has entered into a franchise agreement to develop and operate Little Sheep restaurant concept in Singapore. Little Sheep is a well-known hot pot restaurant in China.

Established since 1999 with origins from Inner Mongolia, Little Sheep has over 280 outlets across China and the international markets including the United States, Canada and Japan, as of 31 December 2017. Of these 280 outlets, 270 of them are franchised.

The Agreement will commence from 18 June 2018, for a period of 10 years. Under the terms of the Agreement, No Signboard is targeting to launch one restaurant per year under the Little Sheep brand name and concept in Singapore within the first five years.

Jialat. Confirmation of their business acumen.

Xiao Fei Yang was acquired by YUM. After that, YUM closed a lot of shops in China.
HK used to have a few XFY. Think no more in HK already.

XFY nothing special one. Beauty pot or imperial treasure hot pot also can beat them.

As bought up by astute VBs previously. In past history of corporate Singapore, we have seen how aggressively Heineken bid for APB to snatch it from F&N, and the profitability of the sale of F&N's Myammar brewery business - This indicates that buyers are willing to pay up for probably some sort of moats that exist in brewery businesses (despite beer being almost a "commodity"). New entrants (especially those without deep pockets) will have to overcome a lot to take business away from incumbents.

PROFIT GUIDANCE

The Board of Directors (“Board”) of No Signboard Holdings Ltd. (“Company”, and together with its subsidiaries, “Group”) wishes to announce that, following a review on the recoverability of the Group’s goodwill and intangible asset of the beer business , the Group has decided to impair the goodwill and intangible asset in accordance with Singapore Financial Reporting Standards in the Group’s financial results for the fourth quarter (“4Q2018”) and the financial year ended 30 September 2018 (“FY2018”).

Such impairment is primarily attributable to the fact that the beer business had not performed as anticipated. Accordingly, the Group has taken steps to and is in the process of rationalising and restructuring the beer business. Further details will be set out in the results announcement to be released on or before 29 November 2018.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/PROFIT%2...eID=534850

Beer businesses can sell for 40x P/E. About as good as a tech start-up. NSB's thinking was probably to start a beer, gain lots of market share, and then sell it to the majors.

But how to gain market share when product is not good/popular to begin with?

Well, to gain market share, one first needs to gain some mindshare while establishing the necessary distribution channels (stock up/sales in pubs, 7-11s, restaurants etc).

How do you gain mindshare? One could sponsor next season's S-League team and get your beer name splashed in front of the jersey (any liverpool fan boy will remember Steven Gerrard in a Carlsberg shirt). Alternatively, you could get George Lam to drink your beer after midnight?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSe61LhKtd0

That is true, established players have spent millions of dollars in advertising and other forms of sponsorships to get to where they are. The status and consumer mindshare, I reckon it is an easy path for No Signboard.

(24-11-2018, 03:22 PM)kelvesy Wrote: That is true, established players have spent millions of dollars in advertising and other forms of sponsorships to get to where they are. The status and consumer mindshare, I reckon it is an easy path for No Signboard.

Agreed. have to spend on A&P/retail presence(?) to maintain consumer franchise/mindshare. Once stopped, the new generation will not know about the brand. You guys probably heard of Ka-ka, Mama Lemon, UIC detergent etc..
But not the millenials...

As for NSB's beer adventure, I guess it is there to have some sexy angles or to take from private hands to public vehicle.

^^Agree that it’s probably a sexy angle to hype up an IPO

(11-06-2018, 12:30 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(11-11-2017, 10:55 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Nice summary

IMHO No signboard also seems No Clue. They are also looking to expand to heartlands which I'm not sure they can maintain quality. Their franchise model for Geylang seems strange and looking to franchise in China. They just bought Draft Denmark in June, just Before 9M17 and already looking to invest into own brewery

Agree their trajectory is not comparable to Jumbo

They are keeping the cash cow and passing risk of new ventures to investors. Unless the new ventures turn profitable, no point spending time