How do you guy view your investment result vs index?

i'm practicing value + growth, mainly target stocks with existing growth, PE lower than 10.

In 2015jan -2016 year end , I'm seeing 200% return on tiny portion of my capital of 10k. 

I started to feel like I can beat this investing game(over confidence)

In 2017jan - 2017 dec , I started to join stanchart priority & ultilise all my funds and persuade my family to buy more stocks in SG(14 stocks) and HK(1 stock). 
seeing my result , grow about 24% of total capital invested. (another boost to my over confidence)

Then came the 2018 , some stocks crashed , but I don't have cash left to buy more. (lack of ammo in good buying time, also I dont want to allocate more than 20% of fund into a single stocks)
it's also another issue, i'm too devoted warren buffett word for buy and hold FOREVER.(which i know he sold IBM)

Now, in 2018Jan to date, beat the crap out of my delusion , with a negative 11% loss.

my only saving grace is 2017 jan to date is 3.6% growth, which fare lousy compared to STI +7% from 2017jan to date.
on the other hand, US index growth from 2017Jan to date +24%, puts a shame to my portfolio.

My dear friend.

You might already realised that many financial bloggers budding from FY15-FY17.

However, beginning of FY18, their blog post shrink quite a lot.

I just happened to took a picture few days ago on 8th Aug 2018:



It's very clear that ST Catalist is in trouble.

Also, by looking from page 17 of "Share investment",
you'll noticed that Telco stocks in deep trouble too.

However, if you avoid these 2 categories of stocks, 
then not too bad.

US stock is highly charged up compare to Singapore STI which is extremely boring.

However, if you look carefully, 
there are still GEM in Singapore to be picked up.

I realised that my portfolio has a lot of companies which generate a lot of cash 
but at high PE and PB.

So, beginning of FY18, I started to look closer into "under-value" fundamental stocks.

However, this category of stock is very difficult to buy 
and the chances of value-trap is high too.

Difficult decision and I hope my strategy pay off - by buying into "under-value" stock 
with good fundamental.

If you ask me which one?
Penguin likely taking off soon.

---

Side track a little bit.
Tomorrow, my top holding Straco is going to announce it's Q2 FY18 result.
Wish me luck and whsh all valuebuddies luck too.

I am confused by the poll question; (1) which index? (2) Over what time period? Perhaps some clarifications will help get better response for your poll.

Quote:it's also another issue, i'm too devoted warren buffett word for buy and hold FOREVER.(which i know he sold IBM)

Warren Buffett almost NEVER buy and hold any stock forever. His "preferred holding period" is forever. There are plenty of times his investments didn't work out (eg. Tesco), he sold at a loss, growth potential no longer look certain due to the rise of competitors (IBM, Walmart; both competing with Amazon) he sold out at a smaller profit that he would like, price reached his calculated value (Petrol China) sold out at a large profit, he also ventures into strategies like options (selling long term puts of indexes), and arbitrage tradings. He also sold out on oil stocks (ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobile) when the price of crude oil tanked in late 2014 (unlike me who "loyally" held on to Boustead Singapore till late 2015-early 2016).

Not all companies can be held "forever", and outperforms (growing intrinsic value, not share price) the market every year. In fact, I think less than 0.01% of the investable universe can be held "forever". Especially NOT "value" stocks that trade at a discount to things like "Book Value", but have little to no growth potential, profitability etc (low quality business). Only high quality companies that continue to have out-sized growth, or earn out-sized returns on investment is worth holding on.

But if you are lucky enough to find even 1 or 2 of these gems that keeps compounding "forever" (10-20 good years is good enough), then holding on to them is all you need to do really well for yourself (eg. Berkshire, Apple, Amazon, Tencent, Costco, Walmart in the 70s), you don't even need to be very smart IMO, just need the stomach to ride the volatility. 

2c, good luck!

(13-08-2018, 10:14 PM)Terry Wrote: i'm practicing value + growth, mainly target stocks with existing growth, PE lower than 10.

In 2015jan -2016 year end , I'm seeing 200% return on tiny portion of my capital of 10k. 

I started to feel like I can beat this investing game(over confidence)

In 2017jan - 2017 dec , I started to join stanchart priority & ultilise all my funds and persuade my family to buy more stocks in SG(14 stocks) and HK(1 stock). 
seeing my result , grow about 24% of total capital invested. (another boost to my over confidence)

Then came the 2018 , some stocks crashed , but I don't have cash left to buy more. (lack of ammo in good buying time, also I dont want to allocate more than 20% of fund into a single stocks)
it's also another issue, i'm too devoted warren buffett word for buy and hold FOREVER.(which i know he sold IBM)

Now, in 2018Jan to date, beat the crap out of my delusion , with a negative 11% loss.

my only saving grace is 2017 jan to date is 3.6% growth, which fare lousy compared to STI +7% from 2017jan to date.
on the other hand, US index growth from 2017Jan to date +24%, puts a shame to my portfolio.

Hi Terry,
Welcome to Mr Market's company! He likes playing tricks with you and it will be some time before you figure out really how to deal with him. I am still learning how to translate the theory of dealing with him, into practice.

Just a couple of notes:
- We need to choose the correct benchmark for apple to apple comparison. For eg. If you are mainly invested in SG stocks, then maybe STI is the right benchmark and US index growth is not. If you have a mixture, then maybe a "blended" index benchmark?
- I used to listen to gurus like you did - plucking out their 1 punchlines and applying it whether it is in context or not. It worked, until it didn't. Recently, i have been meditating upon this new 1 punchline and i reckon i could share it with you (a fellow 1 punchline romantic) - "Amateurs know the rules. But the expert knows the exception".