Australia Property

(27-11-2017, 04:17 PM)soros Wrote: Tycoon CK Ow is  selling his Sydney house and may be getting A$60 Mil  capital  gain.  

Does he get 50% discount and pay tax at 46% on $30 Mil Capital Gain ?.

The public listed companies make him rich , but not to the minority shareholders !

(28-11-2017, 07:26 AM)Boon Wrote: Decline of 20% from here.
Which market? Each capital cities has its own market dynamics and hence property cycles
Starting time = now
Ending time = ?
What's your basis of 20% decline from here?

The basis has been described in past posts. Mainly because Aussie economy is commodity driven and recent rise is fueled by Chinese money. That said I have also said Australian Financial sector seemed very well managed historically so I do not expect a crash, but a substantial decline; which "substantial" to me means >20%. Asking about which capital city is like asking US property bust is different for each state, which is true to a certain extent but inconsequential.
 
If I know the ending time, not to mention the exact starting time, I would not be working I would be playing bitcoin. 

I've also mentioned back then that there were only 2 property bubble left: UK and Australia. Since then even HK & China has retraced and recovered; while London has started to taper as well (In US$ term it has actually peaked in 2014 since GBP lost 1/5 of value, AUD lost 30% value in US$ since 2011). With US likely to go real interest rate soon, return expectation, not only downunder, will change.

(29-11-2017, 11:56 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(28-11-2017, 07:26 AM)Boon Wrote: Decline of 20% from here.
Which market? Each capital cities has its own market dynamics and hence property cycles
Starting time = now
Ending time = ?
What's your basis of 20% decline from here?

The basis has been described in past posts. Mainly because Aussie economy is commodity driven and recent rise is fueled by Chinese money. That said I have also said Australian Financial sector seemed very well managed historically so I do not expect a crash, but a substantial decline; which "substantial" to me means >20%. Asking about which capital city is like asking US property bust is different for each state, which is true to a certain extent but inconsequential.
 
If I know the ending time, not to mention the exact starting time, I would not be working I would be playing bitcoin. 

I've also mentioned back then that there were only 2 property bubble left: UK and Australia. Since then even HK & China has retraced and recovered; while London has started to taper as well (In US$ term it has actually peaked in 2014 since GBP lost 1/5 of value, AUD lost 30% value in US$ since 2011). With US likely to go real interest rate soon, return expectation, not only downunder, will change.

eh bitcoin >$10k liao and all the fund manager starting to load up and pile in.  Maybe foreign investors will start dumping their Aussie/Canadian/UK/HK properties and bonds and stocks and wack bitcoin. Then maybe US gov will create their own Bitcoin currency (like the E-coin in the American hacker TV series Mr Robot.) and own the world again like they did with the USD.

And if US does do rate rise, bond yields will favor massive capital outflows from higher yielding countries like Australia as the gap will be closing. I am a little skeptical on the rate rise this year though with all the recent turmoil in US politics and also recent china slowdown post communist party congress.

(29-11-2017, 11:56 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(28-11-2017, 07:26 AM)Boon Wrote: Decline of 20% from here.
Which market? Each capital cities has its own market dynamics and hence property cycles
Starting time = now
Ending time = ?
What's your basis of 20% decline from here?

The basis has been described in past posts. Mainly because Aussie economy is commodity driven and recent rise is fueled by Chinese money. That said I have also said Australian Financial sector seemed very well managed historically so I do not expect a crash, but a substantial decline; which "substantial" to me means >20%. Asking about which capital city is like asking US property bust is different for each state, which is true to a certain extent but inconsequential.
 
If I know the ending time, not to mention the exact starting time, I would not be working I would be playing bitcoin. 

I've also mentioned back then that there were only 2 property bubble left: UK and Australia. Since then even HK & China has retraced and recovered; while London has started to taper as well (In US$ term it has actually peaked in 2014 since GBP lost 1/5 of value, AUD lost 30% value in US$ since 2011). With US likely to go real interest rate soon, return expectation, not only downunder, will change.

In post # 729,
 
With response to Bloomberg’s “ The party is finally winding down for Australia’s housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy’s fate for years to come, you wrote:
 
“Talked about this for more than 3 years... that's how long it can take for a bubble to burst”
 
That’s why I responded by asking “Is party winding down same as bubble bursting?” in post#725.
 
Now you are saying “no crash” but a “substantial decline”.
 
But definition, if there is a bubble, then it will eventually burst. If it doesn’t, then it wasn’t a bubble to begin.
 
So was there a bubble in the first place? 
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Seems like you equate Armageddon with bubble

So was there a properly bubble in China?

I think there was and still is. But China like Singapore manages it instead of believing in the invisible hand to prick the bubble. Manage it and stretching it out is the difference between doubling in 3 years and doubling in 15 years, crash vs letting off steam. Obviously I believe in intervention and policy actions make a difference.

(28-11-2017, 02:00 PM)Stocker Wrote:

(27-11-2017, 04:17 PM)soros Wrote: Tycoon CK Ow is  selling his Sydney house and may be getting A$60 Mil  capital  gain.  

Does he get 50% discount and pay tax at 46% on $30 Mil Capital Gain ?.

The public listed companies make him rich , but not to the minority shareholders !

This is going to be a OOT post, but needs to be posted as it will be relevant to others as well.

hi Stocker,
Your contribution to VB.com is appreciated, for example, so of the stuff in SL thread where you updated us about happenings in SL AGM. But i think your "OW-rant" is over-repeated and needs some check. Ir-regardless of the consequences it may bring, i hope you can take note of what i mentioned, as i think any more of such "OW-rant" posts bring no value to everyone and VB.com at large.

Moderator

(29-11-2017, 09:19 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Seems like you equate Armageddon with bubble

So was there a properly bubble in China?

I think there was and still is. But China like Singapore manages it instead of believing in the invisible hand to prick the bubble. Manage it and stretching it out is the difference between doubling in 3 years and doubling in 15 years, crash vs letting off steam. Obviously I believe in intervention and policy actions make a difference.

And it is also obvious that I am also thankful I'm Singaporean rather than HKer. I always tell HKers that I don't know how they manage the stress. Roof over our head is not a want... it's a need. Appreciation should not be the primary motivation.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-est...rty-market

(29-11-2017, 07:36 PM)Boon Wrote:

(29-11-2017, 11:56 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(28-11-2017, 07:26 AM)Boon Wrote: Decline of 20% from here.
Which market? Each capital cities has its own market dynamics and hence property cycles
Starting time = now
Ending time = ?
What's your basis of 20% decline from here?

The basis has been described in past posts. Mainly because Aussie economy is commodity driven and recent rise is fueled by Chinese money. That said I have also said Australian Financial sector seemed very well managed historically so I do not expect a crash, but a substantial decline; which "substantial" to me means >20%. Asking about which capital city is like asking US property bust is different for each state, which is true to a certain extent but inconsequential.
 
If I know the ending time, not to mention the exact starting time, I would not be working I would be playing bitcoin. 

I've also mentioned back then that there were only 2 property bubble left: UK and Australia. Since then even HK & China has retraced and recovered; while London has started to taper as well (In US$ term it has actually peaked in 2014 since GBP lost 1/5 of value, AUD lost 30% value in US$ since 2011). With US likely to go real interest rate soon, return expectation, not only downunder, will change.

In post # 729,
 
With response to Bloomberg’s “ The party is finally winding down for Australia’s housing market. How severe the hangover is will determine the economy’s fate for years to come, you wrote:
 
“Talked about this for more than 3 years... that's how long it can take for a bubble to burst”
 
That’s why I responded by asking “Is party winding down same as bubble bursting?” in post#725.
 
Now you are saying “no crash” but a “substantial decline”.
 
But definition, if there is a bubble, then it will eventually burst. If it doesn’t, then it wasn’t a bubble to begin.
 
So was there a bubble in the first place? 
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

How many property bubble left in Australia now ?

Some interesting recent news that will likely have important implications for Aus property and banking sector.

Setting up a banking royal commission, sounds so fancy and british, looks like their PM initially strongly against it then suddenly backflip. Wonder what worms they will uncover...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-30/ba...er/9209926

Big four bank NAB firing staff for
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017...home-loans
http://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaki...43732.aspx
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-21/na...ts/9176616

Sydney property prices on a downtrend now.
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/sydne...corelogic/

Looks like the changes to their residential loan regulation is having some effect on the housing bubble in Sydney and Melbourne. Will any local developers with projects down under be affected?

Moody's tips house price 'correction' across NSW
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-econ...4z532.html
[After rising faster than any other Australian capital city in recent years, Sydney’s housing market is slowing.
According to data from CoreLogic, prices in Australia’s largest and most expensive housing market have already fallen 1.7 per cent this year, continuing the modest reversal that began in the final parts of 2017.

Moody’s Analytics thinks there’ll be further declines to come, suggesting that Sydney prices will suffer a “correction” in the year ahead.]

Home sellers drop listed prices by up to 30 per cent in pockets of Sydney
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-esta...d5f0975337
[HOMEOWNERS in pockets of Sydney have been selling properties for up to 30 per cent below their advertised price after a steep fall in buyer demand.

Property experts claim sellers have been forced to accept GFC-level price declines due to a weakening market which makes it difficult to achieve the inflated sums properties were fetching six months or even a year ago.

Sydney’s median home price fell 1.3 per cent over the three months to December and by another 2.5 per cent in the following three months to March, according to property research group CoreLogic.]