Me & My Money Series (Sunday Times)

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Sgp residential property prices went up sharply early nineties and late noughties - see chart below.

From 1980 to 2010, residential property index increased from about 20 to 200 giving cagr of 8%.

Over same period, sgp per capita gdp (inflation adjusted) increased from $10,685 to $59,813 giving cagr of 5.9%.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/...t/gdp.html
CPI increased from 59.2 in 1980 to 102.8 in 2010 giving cagr of 1.9%.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/...t/cpi.html
So per capita gdp at historical prices grew at cagr of 7.8%.

Hence, over the past 30 years, residential property prices grew roughly in line with per capita gdp.
From this perspective, current residential property prices are perhaps not out of line.

But there were very volatile swings in between the 30 years.
If such volatility continues, there will be opportunities for all.....

[edited: changed from annual gdp to per capita gdp]

[Image: property%20price%20index%201960%20to%202010.gif]
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(10-10-2011, 03:15 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote: To be honest I've never witnessed a real crash during my working life yet and I recall the last crash was in 1997 during the AFC when I was still in University. Somehow it's hard to believe it may happen.....

Hey MW,

Your comment brings to mind a remark that Nassim Taleb made in a video that I saw. I think this was at some Investing forum some time earlier this year with all the other heavyweights like Roubini, Hugh Hendry. Marc Faber was the moderator.

Anyway, Taleb's point was that the more things seem stable, the more it builds up to an eventually greater oscillation (in either direction). Minksy also made the same point actually. But anyway, so far, when I think about it, this seems to hold pretty well.

And if we apply that framework/thinking to our recent past...what has been trending up with relatively minor blips? So, Never say never! Smile
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(10-10-2011, 04:39 PM)kazukirai Wrote: And if we apply that framework/thinking to our recent past...what has been trending up with relatively minor blips? So, Never say never! Smile

Haha, well the reason is because I've been looking like a complete fool in front of all my peers who are buying property like crazy for the past 2-3 years! Tongue Makes me look like a big idiot predicting a severe crash every year yet the property market continues to move up. Oh well now everyone points fingers at me and laughs and says I missed the boat, while many of my couple friends (with kids) are happily paying for 2 mortgages but sitting on positive cash flow from rental income.

So, frankly, if I didn't look so much like a cuckoo bird, I probably won't care hahahaa! Big Grin
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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MW, if you keep predicting a crash, it is inevitable that you will get it right one day.
Don't give up.
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(11-10-2011, 12:53 AM)Big Toe Wrote: MW, if you keep predicting a crash, it is inevitable that you will get it right one day.
Don't give up.

Haha, thanks for the encouragement! Tongue

In the meantime, I will continue to sound like a stuck record..... Cool
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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(11-10-2011, 01:03 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote:
(11-10-2011, 12:53 AM)Big Toe Wrote: MW, if you keep predicting a crash, it is inevitable that you will get it right one day.
Don't give up.

Haha, thanks for the encouragement! Tongue

In the meantime, I will continue to sound like a stuck record..... Cool

reminds me of roubini...Tongue
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(11-10-2011, 07:18 AM)weijian Wrote:
(11-10-2011, 01:03 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote:
(11-10-2011, 12:53 AM)Big Toe Wrote: MW, if you keep predicting a crash, it is inevitable that you will get it right one day.
Don't give up.

Haha, thanks for the encouragement! Tongue

In the meantime, I will continue to sound like a stuck record..... Cool

reminds me of roubini...Tongue

Recapitalizing European banks will be ongoing soon. So, instead of looking forward to a crash, we will be looking at a lower EURO dollar exchange rate and inflation?
I suppose some money will be used to buy assets in Asia?

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this might actually push stock prices higher due to inflation
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This guy is interesting haha, with a name like "CJ"! On one hand he says he is a saver but on the other hand it was very "out of character" for him to spend a lavish 37,000 on two luxury watches! But one good thing though - his dream of being one of those owning a luxury car has finally come true, with him purchasing a 9-month old black BMW! Tongue

The Straits Times
Oct 16, 2011
Property agent driven to be rich

Seeing wealthy people in nice cars got him interested in learning the secret of their success

By Joyce Teo

Property agent Cijay Tew, 33, has a clear goal in life - to get rich.

But things were not rosy at the start. Mr Tew, who started to work part-time when he was 14, knew he could not work for other people. So after a string of sales jobs, he started a food and beverage business at the age of 23.

But it failed. By then, he was already married with two children.

'I kept thinking I wanted to be rich. So what were the choices out there as I have only three O-level passes? Real estate was the only one that can give me an unlimited income.'

He closed his first deal as a property agent only after nine months. Still, he persisted and at one point was working nearly 20 hours a day, distributing fliers from 6am.

He had to make it as he had nothing to fall back on, he says.

'I believe that tough times don't last. Tough people do.'

In an industry with a very high dropout rate, he smelled success in four years and now co-manages the largest PropNex team of more than 1,100 agents, who pulled in more than $38 million in commissions last year.

His wife is Natalie Goh, 33. They have two sons: Denver, nine, and Dexter, eight.

Q: Are you a spender or saver?

I am a saver. My parents were frugal and I'm also usually frugal like them. I don't like shopping and I don't like to spend much on myself.

During my younger days, I spent quite a bit on motorcycles. But now, I invest most of my money in properties and stocks. I believe that it's pointless and a waste to put money in the bank. The only way to make your money work harder for you is to be invested at all times.

Q: How much do you charge to your credit cards every month?

I use three credit cards and usually chalk up $5,000 to $8,000 a month. I always pay on time. The interest and penalties can kill and I will never allow the banks to earn easy money from me. I normally withdraw about $1,000 from the ATM every two weeks.

Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?

My team of agents is giving me a good passive monthly income. I'm growing my business, which will provide me with more capital to invest.

I'm holding on to a few investment properties that are giving me some cash flow.

I have sold a few properties so that I can buy other properties with better potential upside.

The four properties that I have sold include a three-bedroom unit in The Eden in Tampines and a unit in The Beacon. Another is a three-bedroom unit in The Esta. I bought it 21/2 years ago for $929 per square foot (psf), or $1.25 million, and sold it recently for $1,280 psf. I made about $300,000 to $500,000 from each of the sales.

Recently, I started to invest in some blue chips.

At the moment, I have low insurance coverage of about $500,000 and I'm in the process of reviewing it.

Q: Moneywise, what were your growing-up years like?

I grew up in a three-room Housing Board flat in Marine Crescent. I have a sister, who is 41, and a brother, 44. My dad was a salesman and the sole breadwinner and my mum was a housewife.

My dad didn't have any formal education and had to work long hours to feed the family because of his low income.

When I was in primary school, my classmates would take toys to school but I didn't have any.

Q: How did you get interested in investing?

When I was a teenager, I always looked forward to seeing the nice cars going in and out of Tao Nan School.

I thought to myself, how nice it would be to be able to own and drive such nice cars. That got me interested in finding out how those people became rich.

I learnt that they had businesses and they invested, that they didn't work extra hours to get more money. Instead, they got their money to work harder for them through their investments. So I started to find out more about investing by observing how the rich did it and by reading books, even though I hate reading.

I started to invest in property after I became an agent and made money. I would talk to the big investors and learn from them.

Q: What property do you own?

I own a three-bedroom unit in Bedok Court that I bought recently for $1.5 million, or $665 psf; a 1,259 sq ft unit in Double Bay Residences that was also purchased this year for $1.057 million; and some smaller-scale commercial units.

Q: What's the most extravagant thing you have bought?

I bought a $27,000 Audemars Piguet watch and a $10,000 Panerai watch during a trip to Europe. It was very out of character for me to do that. It was probably because of the holiday mood and I was enjoying quality time with my family.

Q: What's your retirement plan?

I don't see myself retiring soon as I enjoy what I do. But my aim is to build a passive income of $25,000 a month from my investments before I reach 40.

This way, I will be able to enjoy life with my family and travel the world with them.

Q: Home is now...

A rented terrace house in the east. We will be moving to the Bedok Court unit, which is being renovated.

Q: I drive...

A nine-month-old black BMW 7 series.

joyceteo@sph.com.sg

-----------------------------------

WORST AND BEST BETS

Q: What is your worst investment to date?


This was my F&B business. When I was 23, I borrowed close to $200,000 and rented a coffee shop to run the business without doing my homework.

I thought that being my own boss was going to be great and running a business was as easy as ABC. I learnt my lesson the hard way. My business went under. I owed more than $100,000 for more than two years. It was a very stressful period.

Q: What is your best investment to date?

It is Zest Academy Group, which I set up with my partners at the end of 2009. In our first year, we already had a million-dollar turnover from the training business.

The group also invests in commercial and industrial properties. These include two units at Prestige Centre, which are currently giving us a 7.5 per cent rental yield.
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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Passive income of $25k a month. Nice.
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