Singapore Economic News

If all those shopping malls and supermarkets were to be swept away by Amazon's 2 hour delivery service , there would not be much fun left in traditional life or reason to live in Singapore .

(28-10-2017, 03:27 PM)soros Wrote: If all those shopping malls and supermarkets were to be swept away by Amazon's 2 hour delivery service  , there would  not be much fun left in traditional life or reason to live  in Singapore .

If you look at China, retail malls are moving towards more lifestyle centric businesses vs. traditional retail. The shopping / cafe culture should still continue to be strong.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard...merce-age/

Amazon might even buy up some supermarket/retail space as they have shown going into physical stores. Lol who knows maybe they will buy up Shengshiong at some time in the future??

IMHO Singapore is one of the best places in the world for urban things like shopping/food/entertainment. Everything is nearby and at your fingertips, you just need to have $$ to spend.

If you notice most malls have a new component in their tenant mix, that is Tuition centers. It is a relatively inelastic demand in which they can jack up rents, pass to tuition centers and force the parents to bear the burden.

However there is a limit to all these continuous rental hikes and asking the consumers to pay: wages

(29-10-2017, 10:27 AM)CY09 Wrote: If you notice most malls have a new component in their tenant mix, that is Tuition centers. It is a relatively inelastic demand in which they can jack up rents, pass to tuition centers and force the parents to bear the burden.

However there is a limit to all these continuous rental hikes and asking the consumers to pay: wages

There are limits but they are moving limits that keeps going up with inflation. And this is what so great about it as there will be constant demand and supply re-balancing. And If there is no hikes, DPU maintains. Is unlikely we will see a malls generated "Recession" or "Crisis".

Malls operators need to have their malls maintain at high occupancy else lower rent. Simple logic. Will they lower their rent so much and still make money ?
I do not see why not because the interest coverage ratio today for example CMT is 4x. Will it happens, unlikely less macro factor. But how many other industries can escape if so ? 


 Cory

Hi cory,

This reminds me of another bug bear i have. Reits are not paying down their loan principal despite owning leasehold ppty. It seems many are expecting a bailout from govt by approving a fresh lease top up when it reaches 50-60 years left. Topping up will cost only 20-25% of the value at that juncture. We are seeing it in the private residential market where enbloc means fresh top up; it really makes me wonder why is there a need to top up at all when your new building is unlikely to last through the remaining period of the original lease.

A bad taste in my mouth at how it is easy to raid our reserves despite some former housing minister say we should not allow raiding our reserves

(25-10-2017, 11:46 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(25-10-2017, 07:45 PM)CY09 Wrote: In Singapore's context, it is called the tabao/Lazada emptiness.

I seriously think that we are in a very big property bubble. Rents will be falling and given the financial engineering valuers have helped REIT managers to perform to go on a debt binge; the fall in rental and rising vacancies is going to trigger a massive equity raising.

I agree with the big property bubble. However there is a lot of liquidity sloshing around even locally, so those massive equity raising may actually happen and succeed thus dragging things on... Unless there is an external shock from the major world economies, the painful scenario of REITs having to liquidate is a risk many players are mispricing.

Just wait for the rate rises to happen and the REITs to tank, then see those so called "dividend" / passive income investors that buy a crapload of REITs run

Some developers also own quite substantial retail space.  UOL is one of them.  

(29-10-2017, 10:27 AM)CY09 Wrote: If you notice most malls have a new component in their tenant mix, that is Tuition centers. It is a relatively inelastic demand in which they can jack up rents, pass to tuition centers and force the parents to bear the burden.

However there is a limit to all these continuous rental hikes and asking the consumers to pay: wages

Now that you mention it.  Recall seeing tuition centres in most mall though they are usually at less prominent location.  Though the space they occupy is not likely to be significant contributor to Reit income.  At least not yet.  Also think tuition centres are ripe as the next industry for disruptors.

Singapore’s Stocks Haven’t Lured This Much Cash in a Decade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...n-a-decade

(29-10-2017, 11:32 AM)CY09 Wrote: Hi cory,

This reminds me of another bug bear i have. Reits are not paying down their loan principal despite owning leasehold ppty. It seems many are expecting a bailout from govt by approving a fresh lease top up when it reaches 50-60 years left. Topping up will cost only 20-25% of the value at that juncture. We are seeing it in the private residential market where enbloc means fresh top up; it really makes me wonder why is there a need to top up at all when your new building is unlikely to last through the remaining period of the original lease.

A bad taste in my mouth at how it is easy to raid our reserves despite some former housing minister say we should not allow raiding our reserves

I remember when AA Reit did a top up, they do a major work on it else gov will not approve the top up iirc.
Most Reits have info like lease period, debt ratio, rental income, AEI stated. This variables are managed similar to "Cashflow" of running a business.
There is no reason to pay down debts if they going to make more from using it.

Higher Taxes and Rate Hikes? What's Ahead for Singapore

By Michelle Jamrisko
December 29, 2017, 5:00 AM GMT+8

Singapore is bracing for possible tax increases and monetary policy tightening in 2018 against a backdrop of steady economic growth and benign inflation.

The city state’s economy will probably expand 2.8 percent next year compared with an estimated 3.3 percent this year, while inflation is forecast to pick up slowly, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Gross domestic product probably rose an annualized 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 from the previous three months, according to a separate survey ahead of data due Jan. 2.

While some economists including Selena Ling at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. say the potential domestic fiscal and monetary policy tightening may pose headwinds to the Singapore economy, they still see a "benign" macroeconomic environment with domestic growth drivers having broadened beyond manufacturing and electronics.
“Global growth is picking up and broadening and there’s still some decent ongoing momentum,” supporting the view that the export push from 2017 will persist into next year, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore, who is forecasting economic growth of 4 percent in 2018. “We had several years of pretty sub-par, below-trend growth. It’s about time we had a nice recovery.”

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...rade-talks

A Shopped-Out Singapore? Believe It
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/article...hopped-out