Singapore Faces a Grim Labor Future as Population Ages Rapidly

Singapore Faces a Grim Labor Future as Population Ages Rapidly

By Michelle Jamrisko
September 6, 2017, 1:15 PM GMT+8

While Japan had the biggest slump in its workforce in Asia over the last 10 years, Singapore has the most to fear from an aging population over the next two decades.

The city state will face a double whammy: a shrinking workforce and slower progress than Asian neighbors in getting more people into the labor market. According to a new study from Oxford Economics, Singapore’s labor supply – after accounting for changes to the participation rate – will shrink by 1.7 percentage points in the 10 years through 2026 and by 2.5 percentage points in the decade after that. That’s the worst of a dozen economies in a report by Louis Kuijs, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia economics at Oxford.

Almost all Asian nations will face demographic challenges over the next two decades, and efforts to boost labor participation rates – for example, by drawing more women into the workforce and raising the retirement age – will only marginally limit the negative impact.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...es-rapidly

I am going to be painfully blunt.

Currently there are about 24,000 "sales persons" in the financial advisory line for our entire population of 5mil+. Conversely in US, the ratio stands at 1 "sales person" to 1,000 Americans.

If Singaporeans grow more financially literate/aware/conscious (whatever term you like to give), we can free 18,000 people from insurance jobs that are "destroying" the financial wealth of the people in our country; relocate them to replace industries suffering from a labour shortage. The current employment workforce of Singapore is 3,673,100 people (as of 31 Dec 2016). Freeing up 18,000 people is like "magically" boosting your workforce by 5%. This will definitely offset the 1.7% and 2.5% labor shrinkage the economists are so worried about

We just need to be smarter in managing our country's resources.

<Hoping MOM, MTI, MOF, MAS are reading this to understand the real problem and not via some scholarly paper>

It depends on what kind of skills is in shortage. You can have 18,000 more warm bodies but no employer willing to hire them (or vice versa). Isn't this why we have 24,000 people in insurance and another 28,000 in property sales? If you are a half-past-six graduate in Singapore, you must be ready to accept a blue-collar job/wage-level, because well, the market has plenty of good graduates. Since most half-past-six graduates cannot accept blue-collar job/wage-level, they rather try their hands at something where, if they succeed, they can earn as much as the good graduates.

Eventually, people will become more 'financially educated,' and these sales people will become more redundant.

From a recent ST article on PropertyGuru's price hike:

"The number of buyers and sellers who carried out DIY resale transactions has been on the rise, though this proportion in relation to the total number of resale buyers and sellers has remained stable at around 24 per cent. Last year, about 9,900 buyers and sellers opted for the DIY path, compared to 9,200 in 2015 and 8,500 in 2014."

Side track a bit...Real estate agents differ a great deal one person to another.
I deal with them sometimes(I try not to) and here's my take.
The one I know was earning a 5 figure sum commision from a deal but service level/attitude is below a Macdonald's counter staff.
Then there are those dealing with HDB flats who are completely professional and don't mind taking the buyer to >20 viewing without a drop in service standards.

In any case, the paper qualification becomes less important as the country moves forward. Skills, especially life skills will be a more valuable asset. if you are in civil engineering and there is not much construction going on, there is little opportunity to be hired. Compared to a cook or a baker, the later have more options available.  

In this time and age, the ones who adapt and change and find new ways will thrive. Those who are slow to react to new opportunities and unable to accept new challenges will fade away. Alternatively, join the civil service, completely boring but more predictable and stable.

coming back to topic, we need more FTs/FWs to renew the aging labour force to keep singapore economy moving!!!

10 millions populations here we go!!

(06-09-2017, 04:50 PM)Big Toe Wrote: Alternatively, join the civil service, completely boring but more predictable and stable.

Good advice for the majority. 

Government has no problem paying salaries and need not cut headcount to save costs:

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governme...ak-of-s47b

Hi Karl,

If those half past six graduates can't make it, why not advise them to take diploma or technical skills to support jobs as technicians. In fact, we have a lot of jobs available such as rail technicians, retail assistants or auxiliary security guards.

In my opinion, it is because of public sentiments that as a graduate, the next step is to secure a white collar job. Such a sentiment has resulted in a festering of such wealth destruction jobs. If we were to observe Japan and South Korea, many of their graduates are doing the above mentioned jobs and not foreigners. Conversely, their financial advisory ratio is much higher than Singapore, meaning less insurance jobs per same no of people.

I do not think Singapore has a problem of manpower crunch at all, the problem is about creating jobs to meet the aspirations of Singapore's graduates (be they from half past six schools) which has been shaped by societal expectations. Jobs have been created to meet graduate's aspirations now but, in my view, has come at the expense of the entire local population.

And if the current labour market is shouting that there is "labor shortage"; take the stick, stop creating such "wealth destructive" jobs to satisfy people's aspirations and "guide" them to the blue collar job offerings. Of course, you are going to lose politically in terms of votes as evident in South Korea. BUT, as the proverb goes, you can't have your cake and eat it.

Link on S. Korean Youths frustration: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asi...d281fd7101

On a slightly unrelated note here is a good read on the rise of value transferring jobs (aka useless jobs imo): http://evonomics.com/why-garbage-men-sho...n-bankers/
Of which this quote strikes the most chord: "In recent decades those clever minds have concocted all manner of complex financial products that don’t create wealth, but destroy it. These products are, essentially, like a tax on the rest of the population."

(06-09-2017, 08:42 PM)CY09 Wrote: If those half past six graduates can't make it, why not advise them to take diploma or technical skills to support jobs as technicians. In fact, we have a lot of jobs available such as rail technicians, retail assistants or auxiliary security guards.

The government actually tried that, but most people didn't take too kindly to the message, or the messenger. I don't suppose another minister will stick his head out to dish out similar advice. It will not be until a few years after they have graduated that half past six graduates will understand that the time and money spent in below-average private schools is not helpful.

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/un...w-boon-wan

Singaporeans do not need to be university graduates to be successful, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan yesterday.

What is more important is that they get good jobs after leaving school, Mr Khaw told some 160 students and young adults in an Our Singapore Conversation dialogue.

"If they cannot find jobs, what is the point? You own a degree, but so what? That you can't eat it. If that cannot give you a good life, a good job, it is meaningless," he added

Personally, I have come across young (late 20s, early 30s) ITE and poly grads who are doing technical work, and they are earning fresh grad level salary. It seemed to me that they are doing better than their peers because they are down to earth, diligent, and hardworking; not dreaming about easy money all the time. Their attitude towards perfecting their craft is what sets them apart. After all, aren't most of our SMEs are born this way? And so many of them listed as well...

(06-09-2017, 02:22 PM)cyclone Wrote: Singapore Faces a Grim Labor Future as Population Ages Rapidly

By Michelle Jamrisko
September 6, 2017, 1:15 PM GMT+8

While Japan had the biggest slump in its workforce in Asia over the last 10 years, Singapore has the most to fear from an aging population over the next two decades.

......

I wonder why this is even newsworthy?

It's just like saying that if you keep driving straight, you will run out of road somehow... Journalistic standards have fallen down a cliff!

Singstat Data

A cursory examination of the data should inform anyone who has not been living in Singapore that a substantial portion of our labour force is complemented by imports. If we can exclude PRs, I believe the proportion would exceed 40%. Are we finding a lack of willing work migrants to Singapore? I seriously doubt it. Restriction to these work migrants are artificial barriers put in place by the govt, the absence/relaxation of which would lead to other problems but could easily address the small 2.5% drop.... If the journalist is concerned about population growth/aging in Singapore, why thank you, but LKY was already talking about this problem when he was PM!

And we have not talk about AI/robots replacing human jobs yet.....

Hmm..... it's almost like writing about starvation in Singapore while the PM is clearly worried about diabetes.

@CY09 18k is 0.5% of labour force

The current strategy is to have flexibility in the labour force through low value add foreign labour. If you push expensive Singaporean work force into these jobs, you will inevitably have a CPI issue as well as less flexible workforce. All these have to be taken into consideration and not just pigeon hole an available person to a role

BTW government is cutting down the number of graduates. This has impact not only on aspirations but also various implications.