Singapore Economic News

I have been think about this issue for awhile. I will just state some facts below, use it to determine your own judgement.

China took 3 years to construct the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway. This is in terms of construction time, does not include the discussions and planning stages of the railway. That is a 1,319km railway.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing%E2...ed_Railway)

Taking the map of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the total of 7,197km (Xi'an>urumqi>Bishkek>Samarkand>Dushanabe>Gwadar) Note the longest distance was between Xi'an and Urumqi = 2,512km.
This is the one of the possible routes that was mentioned to use Pakistan to bypass the Straits of Malacca.
If this was to be efficiently produced, and they could possibly build all rail ways joints concurrently, the minimum period of time is 6 years.
(https://qz.com/983460/obor-an-extremely-...silk-road/)

There is already a Trans-Asian Railway (TAR): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Asian_Railway
It was hindered by political and economic obstacles.

http://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources...cs/497.pdf
If you have time read the full article, if not here is the summary:

Shipping is more fuel efficient (and less CO2 emissions). As journey distance increases, ratio of cost of maritime:railway increases at 1:1.7.  
Additionally, the highest container costs is from the transfers.
(i.e. to make railway more attractive, have a direct railway that does not transfer. Additionally, have a direct route on land that is less than 1.7 times the distance traveled by shipping.)

(https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic...china-cash)
"China views Singapore as being less supportive of Xi’s plan because unlike other countries that announced their leaders would attend without requiring a formal invitation, Singapore sought an invite, according to people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information."

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My take on this is that it will be done, will take a significant longer time than Beijing-Shanghai railway construction. The cost savings from the railway will not be that significant but will pressure the maritime line through the Straits of Malacca, affecting Singapore's revenue from maritime trade. I believe that Singapore's status as the Asia tiger and hub of Southeast Asia will be challenged but I do not expect the impact to be immediate but a gradual decline.

Like zz.. mentioned, Singapore needs to find a way to be relevant.
Its people are still its strongest assets, the government needs to recognize it and not short-change them. Singapore is like Venice, it can and will fall if corruption rises, new trade routes is established, leaving of talent.

I will stop here as I do not want to cross into the line of politics.

Politics or otherwise, Singapore's shrewd posturing in OBOR and ASEAN will be tested as China expands her economic power. Kra canal which was almost an impossibility now is plausible

Policies have very long tail. It usually has negligible short term impact but huge long term ramifications, which is a major problem for democracies that are usually populist in construct. If Singapore is no longer the bridge / springboard in ASEAN or relevance for western world into China or ASEAN, we can easily be another historical trade-centre like Cathage, Alexandria, Athens, Rome, Malacca, etc

when china flexes her muscles, it's no longer about money, she has tons to burn for almost forever, what china wants, is to have a say in how the natural resources / international trades are going to be in her "strategic" terms, ie, she's not going to be held ransom by whoever and whatever...

and she is leading in that area, she knows it even more so now.

Quote:Taking the map of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the total of 7,197km (Xi'an>urumqi>Bishkek>Samarkand>Dushanabe>Gwadar) Note the longest distance was between Xi'an and Urumqi = 2,512km.
This is the one of the possible routes that was mentioned to use Pakistan to bypass the Straits of Malacca.
If this was to be efficiently produced, and they could possibly build all rail ways joints concurrently, the minimum period of time is 6 years.
(https://qz.com/983460/obor-an-extremely-...silk-road/)

Maritime routes work simply because the majority of the sea lanes belong to no one or none can fully administrate the international water.

Unlike the maritime routes, the OBOR is going through 10-20? countries with each of them having their own laws, different needs and regulations. Just the languages alone, it is already a hand full.
Asean countries, considered a pretty well-off cluster of countries as compared to many OBOR countries, cannot even link themselves up properly with rails.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/...eam?page=1

Can OBOR do better??

Who knows it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise if Singapore revaluates its investment in China......(Impact on Singapore might be smaller when Chinese economy 'crash'.....)

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/19/temasek-t...banks.html

(20-05-2017, 05:27 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Who knows it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise if Singapore revaluates its investment in China......(Impact on Singapore might be smaller when Chinese economy 'crash'.....)

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/19/temasek-t...banks.html

this sell call is to make up for the losses in UBS .... :O
taking profit off the table!

(20-05-2017, 06:55 PM)brattzz Wrote:

(20-05-2017, 05:27 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Who knows it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise if Singapore revaluates its investment in China......(Impact on Singapore might be smaller when Chinese economy 'crash'.....)

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/19/temasek-t...banks.html

this sell call is to make up for the losses in UBS .... :O
taking profit off the table!

Matching losses with profit, to minimise risk off the table. I do that in the past. Not sure is this the case or poorer relation with China.

.

if it's poorer relation with china, temasick won't get its chance to sell!!!!

Selling shares in China is one thing, the other problem is taking the money out from China. China now has tight capital controls

Singapore's Economic Rebound Isn't as Good as it Seems

by Nasreen Seria
June 9, 2017, 5:00 AM GMT+8

Singapore’s economy may be picking up, but consumers aren’t feeling it.

After two years of below-par growth, economists and even the government are becoming more positive on the outlook. While it's not boom time yet, the consensus is that 2017 growth will come in higher than last year’s 2 percent. A large part of that is down to exports: Singapore, like other trade-reliant nations in Asia, is benefiting from a recovery in global growth, which is translating into rising sales of electronic goods.

But good news is masking pain on the ground. Consumer spending -- which makes up a third of the economy -- has contracted for two straight quarters, unemployment is rising, wage growth is slowing and household debt is increasing.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...s-it-seems