Best World

WJ,
Agree with you on the financial engineering piece
and hence my conclusion that it's riskier to hold on to BWL.

I suppose either Dora is not aware of this risk to her valuable shareholders (51% likely-hood)
or she is aware but felt that the split should turn out to be better for present/future shareholders (49% chance).

In both cases, I trust that Dora do this for the sake of shareholders (instead of herself).

---

As for X-bagger.
I think that having a few X-bagger is just a matter of time (and luck - for those who knows me).

I don't think that you'll believe me because even myself couldn't believe it myself.

My first stock (yes, really 1st purchase) turns out to be a 10 bagger.
And, the unbelievable part was I brought the share within a week after I open my CDP account.

You tell me it's pure luck and I will agrees with you.

I'm still learning everyday.

One thing which I felt strongly nowadays (if you demand facts),
is that a lot of people buy too many stocks.

Says, you buy 30 stocks using 100% of your $$$.
Each stocks cost about 2-5% of your $$$.
So what if one of your stocks turn out to be 10 bagger?
So what if two of your stocks turn out to be a 10 bagger?
So what if three of your stocks turn out to be a 10 bagger?
So what if four of your stocks turn out to be a 10 bagger?
on and on...

Don't need to calculate and you got my point?
No?
Then, calculate and let me know the answers.

For a million $$$, do you think that our valuebuddies should adopt
diversification as a method to avoid/lower risks?

If not, then exactly opposite, 
for another million $$$, should we concentrate and only vested in a small number of company?

  Is there a reason why nobody attempts my million $$$ questions?

---

Reading and observing:
I'm still learning everyday.

This is definitely the key to get x-bagger.
I can tell you that now the time is ripped.

If you managed to buy some tickets 6 months ago
based on reading and observing,
then you'll definitely hit some x-bagger.

It's a bit difficult now but opportunities is plenty.

You can definitely bounce some ideas with me.

I'm born to make you happy:

(23-02-2017, 06:27 PM)Boon Wrote: Hi JanQuin, 

Who knows?
 
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1033-post-94270.html#pid94270
 
Less than 3 years ago, kelvesy wrote:
 
“Why would the D2 pay such a high price at $0.240? Do they know some good news that we don't?”
 
Today, share price closed at 2.09 (post-bonus) or 2.61 (pre-bonus) – a new all time high record.
 
Who would have imagined back then that it could become a 10-bagger in less than 3 years?
___________________________________________________________________________________________ 

Share price closed at 2.81 (post-bonus) or 3.51 (pre-bonus)  – another new all time high record.
 
Based on  0.24 (pre-bonus) a share, it is inching closer to 15-bagger now.
 
Would it become a 20-bagger ?
 
To achieve that share price would have to reach:
= 4.80 (pre-bonus)
= 3.84 (post-bonus)
= 1.92 (post-bonus; post-split)
 
1Q2017 results would be out tonight.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

It takes a lot of conviction to buy at 0.24 and keeps it for so long when the price just keeps on going higher.

Was checking my record, my first tranche of Best World was bought from 2009 - 2011 (ard 0.26 to 0.39). Finally, sold them at a loss in 2013 at 0.18.

Re-entered in 2015 at 0.21 and keeps averaging up in 2016. Could not resist the urge to sell some and take profit along the way.
Current holding's average price is 0.6. Current thinking is to continue to hold them until there is a change in fundamental or valuation is just way too high (PE 40?50?60?...hmmm). Now is about 22x with PEG (5 yr) of 0.14!

Looking forward to its results tonight.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Share price closed at 2.81 (post-bonus) or 3.51 (pre-bonus)  – another new all time high record.
 
Based on  0.24 (pre-bonus) a share, it is inching closer to 15-bagger now.
 
Would it become a 20-bagger ?
 
To achieve that share price would have to reach:
= 4.80 (pre-bonus)
= 3.84 (post-bonus)
= 1.92 (post-bonus; post-split)
 
1Q2017 results would be out tonight.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Best World results are out. Some headlines

- First time revenue from China outstrip Taiwan's
- Taiwan is slowing, presenting a drop in revenue Y-O-Y
- Management acknowledges that Taiwan's growth phase is over, "management believes that growth from the market will be more subdued in FY2017 as it prepares itself for the next phase of growth as one of the top 10 direct selling companies in Taiwan."
- Lastly, "management is cautiously optimistic that China will be the Group’s key driver in the next reporting period and for the next 12 months"

Could someone please enlighten me on why is the exports model in China is experiencing such explosive growth? "Management foresee further increase in repeat consumption amongst existing users as well as the number of new users for DR’s Secret line of skincare solutions". But isn't the direct selling license only for 6 consumables health products from the China company that they took over? What's driving growth in the export model? Are distributors stockpiling to convert into the direct selling model later?

Commentary from the report on China Revenue

"Revenue from China grew 102.7% in 1Q2017 vis-à-vis the same period last year, driven by larger shipments during this reporting quarter to fulfil back orders generated in 4Q2016. On top of that, the larger shipments were also necessary so that sufficient inventory is held for the current and following quarter, as Management foresee further increase in repeat consumption amongst existing users as well as the number of new users for DR’s Secret line
of skincare solutions."

1Q2017 Results (Released on 09-May-2017)
 
Group Revenue (SGD Million) 
1Q2014 =  12.802     (= 17% of FY2014 Revenue)
2Q2014 =  18.278     (= 24% of FY2014 Revenue)
3Q2014 =  19.229     (= 26% of FY2014 Revenue) 
4Q2014 =  24.957     (= 33% of FY2014 Revenue)
(FY2014  =  75.226)
1Q2015 =  13.507     (= 13% of FY2015 Revenue)
2Q2015 =  21.029     (= 21% of FY2015 Revenue)
3Q2015 =  26.191     (= 26% of FY2015 Revenue) 
4Q2015 =  40.945     (= 40% of FY2015 Revenue)
(FY2015 = 101.672)
1Q2016 =  35.226     (= 18% 0f FY2016 Revenue)     
2Q2016 =  51.568     (= 26% 0f FY2016 Revenue)     
3Q2016 =  52.253     (= 26% 0f FY2016 Revenue)     
4Q2016 =  61.817     (= 30% 0f FY2016 Revenue) 
(FY2016 = 200.784)   
1Q2017 =  44.744    
 
1Q2017 Group revenue increased + 27% compared to 1Q2016 - a new 1Q group quarterly revenue record – predominantly driven by higher Export sales to China which more than made up for the slack in DS sales in Taiwan.

GPM / NPM
1Q2014 = 74.0% / 0.9%
2Q2014 = 69.8% / 4.1%
3Q2014 = 75.5% / 5.8%
4Q2014 = 77.1% / 8.2%
(FY2014  = 74.4% / 5.4%)
1Q2015 = 74.9% / 1.8%
2Q2015 = 75.8% /10.0%
3Q2015 = 77.1% /15.4%
4Q2015 = 74.8% / 9.1%
(FY2015 =  75.6% / 9.9%)
1Q2016 = 75.5% /16.9%
2Q2016 = 74.8% /14.3%
3Q2016 = 71.6% /17.1%
4Q2016 = 71.9% / 19.9%
(FY2017 = 73.2% / 17.2%)
1Q2017 = 70.9% / 21.7%
 
GPM dipped but still managed to stay above the 70% mark.
NPM improved and reached a new record level – driven by higher mix of Export sales to China.
 
NPAT / EPS 
1Q2014 = 0.121 m / 0.06 cent
2Q2014 = 0.758 m / 0.34 cent
3Q2014 = 1.123 m / 0.51 cent 
4Q2014 = 2.052 m / 0.93 cent
(FY2014  = 4.054 m / 1.86 cent)
1Q2015 = 0.249 m / 0.11 cent
2Q2015 = 2.106 m / 0.96 cent
3Q2015 = 4.035 m / 1.83 cent
4Q2015 = 3.714 m / 1.69 cent 
(FY2015 =10.104 m / 4.59 cent)
1Q2016 = 5.963 m / 2.71 cent
2Q2016 = 7.369 m / 3.35 cent 
3Q2016 = 8.933 m / 4.06 cent (pre-bonus) or 3.25 cent (post-bonus)
4Q2016 = 12.304 m / 5.59 cent (pre-bonus) or 4.47 cent (post-bonus)
(FY2016 = 34.569 m / 15.70 cent (pre-bonus) or 12.56 cent (post-bonus))
1Q2017 = 9.723 m /  4.41 cent (pre-bonus) or 3.53 cent (post-bonus)
 
New 1Q quarterly NPAT/EPS record ; Second highest quarterly NPAT/EPS record.
 
Taiwan Revenue (SGD million)
1Q2014 =   2.418   (= 11% of FY2014 Revenue)
2Q2014 =   4.157   (= 18% of FY2014 Revenue)
3Q2014 =   4.940   (= 22% of FY2014 Revenue) 
4Q2014 = 11.196   (= 49% of FY2014 Revenue)
(FY2014  = 22.711)
1Q2015 = 4.465     (=   8% of FY2015 Revenue)
2Q2015 = 10.244   (= 18% of FY2015 Revenue)
3Q2015 = 14.125   (=  25% of FY2015 Revenue) 
4Q2015 = 27.559   (=  49% of FY2015 Revenue)
(FY2015  = 56.393)
1Q2016 = 20.221   (= 16% of FY2016 Revenue)
2Q2016 = 35.056   (= 29% of FY2016 Revenue)
3Q2016 = 27.602   (= 22% of FY2016 Revenue)
4Q2016 = 40.048   (= 33% of FY2016 Revenue)
(FY2016) = 122.959
1Q2017 = 18.685
 
Revenue declined 7.6% compared to 1Q2016.
Signs of slowing sales in Taiwan is a big concern.
Management foresee a slowdown in new member acquisitions moving forward.

China Revenue (SGD million) = Export Revenue + MW Revenue:
1Q2014 =  2.195 
2Q2014 =  3.296 
3Q2014 =  3.117 
4Q2014 =  4.372  
(FY2014  =12.980)
1Q2015 =  3.088 
2Q2015 =  5.366
3Q2015 =  4.805
4Q2015 =  6.512 
(FY2015  =19.771)
1Q2016 =10.566  (Export = 9.609 ; MW= 0.957)
2Q2016 =11.813  (Export =10.777 ;MW =1.036)
3Q2016 =19.641  (Export =18.563 ; MW=1.078)
4Q2016 =15.841  (Export =14.249 ; MW =1.592)
(FY2016 = 57.861 (Export= 53.198 ; MW = 4.663)
1Q2017= 21.417  (Export = 20.555 ; MW = 0.862)
 
New China quarterly revenue record driven predominantly by export  - compared 1Q2017 to 1Q2016, the growth rate is very impressive at +102.7% - but not much higher than 3Q2016.
 
_____________________________________________________________________________________
 
Comments:
 
Overall, a good sets of results.
 
But signs of a slowing sales and membership growth in Taiwan is a big concern.
 
1Q2017 vs 1Q2016 Taiwan revenue DECLINED.
 
Is this sign of “peaking” in the Taiwanese market?
 
Would Taiwan slip into negative growth territory in FY2017?
 
“Management believes that growth from the Taiwanese market will be more subdued in FY2017.”   - they are still talking about “growth”……. Will see…
 
Despite of slowing sales in Taiwan, 1Q2017 group revenue/NPAT/EPS turned out to be a set of new 1Q records, driven predominantly by higher export sales to China which more than made up for the slack in DS sales in Taiwan.

China quarterly revenue (predominantly export sales) has surpassed Taiwan quarterly revenue for the first time.
 
“Barring any unforeseen circumstances, management is cautiously optimistic that China will be the Group’s key driver in the next reporting period and for the next 12 months. “
 
It looks like the “baton of high growth” has been passed from Taiwan to China.
 
Can BWI/BWL maintains its high growth in FY2017 and beyond ? Only time will tell……………..
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

It's always a joy to look at the figures that Boon comes up with post results announcement by Best World.

There is though some concerns that I have on the Q1 figures. Taiwan numbers are slowing on a Y-O-Y basis, and when trends reverse in Direct Selling, it can get pretty ugly quickly before things stabilize. Apparently the management is working towards "quality control" for its sales force lest they get into trouble with regulations. The company even went to the length of removing errant agents.

If Taiwan slows, probably only China can take over the growth baton. But even though this is a quarterly revenue record, management did clarify that it is due to backlog in 4Q and preparing inventory for the following quarter. Typically for Best World Q4 tends to be its best quarter and Q1 its weakest (due to CNY). The only reasoning I can think of for revenue in 1Q2017 to be more than 4Q2016 is because partial backlog in 4Q2016 is recognized in Q1. A $5-7m of revenue back to Q4 shift in revenue would make sense as it would result in 4Q > 3Q and 4Q > 1Q17.

In all, while the Q1 export revenue of $20.555m is a morale booster, I can't help but think how much of it is really done in Q1. Can it sustain the level of revenue going forward? Or will there be a dip in Q2? What exactly is driving the export revenue and causing a >100% improvement?

Taiwan sales recorded when delivered, China (export model) sales recorded when shipped. Maybe when looking at the China (export) sales, we may compare two month moving average to have a better view of the trend?

S raised the same questions twice in separate posts written after 1QFY17 result.

first post is just high level questioning citing BWL own words.

second post raise the same question but injected with more colors.
*like*
 

---

valuebuddies.com attracts many readers.
among the crowd, we can see traces of company founders and 
staffs taking actions shortly after our value buddies comments.

D2 and HBC likely is watching our space closely too.

1Q announcement and wordings  were carefully crafted to outline the founders' concerns.

S picked up immediately.

I had also shared in my earlier post these concerns, 
thou I hold a view that we should let the results speaks for itself.
Hence, my faith to hold on to BWL; ignoring the increasing risks.
see my post:
link

Further risks was injected with the announcement of 1-to-2 stock split.
and, need not says, I am still holding on to my faith.

---

There is no short cut.
You got to read the 1QFY17 announcement personally to understand:

1. Taiwan slow down and how D2/HBC will be doing to hold on the position
- what are the key numbers to verify whether their strategy is successful

2. China growth story and how D2/HBC intend to maintain the momentum
- understand whether the strategy make sense to you
- if not, why was it spell out in 1Q announcement?
- were D2/HBC facing some major constraints?
- and, most important, what's the key number to watch?

3. Factory numbers
- for one, this is a small number and at this moment,
   I'm not sure why this is highlighted and also the connection of factory to Taiwan and China.
- I need to re-read past announcement to find the dependency.
- Deep in my mind, this could be a big hint given by D2/HBC,  
mmm.... (why can't they just spell it out.) 

---

别人说的话 随便听一听 自己作决定
不想拥有太多情绪
一杯红酒配电影
在周末晚上 关上了手机 舒服窝在沙发里

For a million $$$, is it still worth holding on to BWL?
And for another million $$$, when or what indicator should we use to sell?

(of course, I assume that you already brought the ticket, otherwise, my question will be:
  what's the good price to start buying BWL? )

(10-05-2017, 11:10 AM)chialc88 Wrote: 3  Factory numbers
 - for one, this is a small number and at this moment,   I'm not sure why this is highlighted and also the connection of factory to Taiwan and    
China.- I need to re-read past announcement to find the dependency.- Deep in my mind, this could be a big hint given by D2/HBC,   mmm.... (why can't they just spell it out.) 

Hi chialc88,
Which particular small factory number are you talking about?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Manufacturing/Wholesale 
Due to pending changes to product registration requirements
the management has decided to hold back new product registrations and
will engage wholesalers through other marketing activities to improve market demand for its brand offerings.  

---

My instinct told me D2/HBC is hinting at Indonesia which is small impact.
If my instinct is wrong, then mmm....

Truly, truly, truly here

Into the override, how we ride the brake
Sleeker and cheaper, the wind change
Following people, they I say
Expect your incentives have paved the way